1. Talent Advantage Series
Cameron Macht
DEED Labor Market Information Office
Regional Analysis & Outreach
April 11, 2018

2. Labor Force Constraints
From 1976 to 2001, Minnesota gained +993,000 workers
Average of about +40,000 new workers per year
From 2001 to 2017, Minnesota gained +218,402 new workers
Average of about +13,650 workers per year
Region 5 gained +23,317 workers from
+19,967 workers from
+3,350 workers from
Region 5 now has 83,576 workers
Peaked at 85,035 in 2010

3. Projected Labor Force Changes
From 2020 to 2030, Minnesota is projected to gain +73,525 workers
Average of about +7,350 workers per year
This includes a big decline in year old workers
Huge increase in Millennials and workers aged 65 & over!
Region 5’s labor force is projected to decline slightly from
Similar growth for Millennials
Huge loss of year olds
Less growth in year olds
Similar growth 75 years & over
Tight labor markets are now recognized as one of the most significant barriers to growth
0.9 jobseekers per vacancy in 2017

4. Employment Disparities
Minnesota has significant employment disparities for minority groups; but it’s getting better
Closing these gaps is crucial!
Participation rates are lower and unemployment rates are higher for:
Younger workers
Workers with disabilities
People with lower educational attainment
The challenges we face over the next decades are so great we’ll need to tackle them with a multi-pronged approach to attract and retain workers of all demographic characteristics
Getting the American Indian unemp rate down to the white rate (4.7%) would fill over 200 jobs; Hispanic rate down to white rate would fill 70 jobs; some other race & two or more races rate down to white rate would fill about 40 jobs – by itself, that would fill over 300 jobs without adding to the labor force

5. Racial Diversity
Region 5 is relatively non-diverse, but increased racial diversity will be a key component of growth
White population is much older than minority population
State Demographic Center projects that the minority population will grow +37.3%, compared to +4.1% for whites (primarily due to aging)
Region 5’s population growth was mostly due to a natural increase
1,945 more births than deaths
Only 1.5% of the county’s population is foreign- born (state = 7.7%)
Largest number is from Latin America

6. Commute and Labor Shed
Region 5 is a net labor exporter (more people than jobs)
47,166 people both live & work in Region 5
14,950 people commute in
Otter Tail, Beltrami, Hubbard, Stearns
24,809 people commute out
Stearns, Hennepin, Benton, Otter Tail
Workers are commuting to jobs in health care, manufacturing, educational svcs.

7. Economic Growth Region 5’s economy is growing steadily
Added nearly +4,500 net new jobs (+7.4%) since 2000 (state = +9.5%)
Added +3,362 net new jobs (+5.5%) from (state = +11.9%)
+232 jobs (+0.4%) from (state = +1.1%)
Health care & social assistance (11,065 jobs) is the largest industry
+1,118 jobs
Retail Trade & Acc. & Food Services
Provide 28.4% of jobs!
Low wages, growth
Manufacturing and Transportation are less concentrated here than in the state
Lost jobs since 2007

8. Workforce Demographics
Different sectors rely on different age groups
Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Retail Trade utilize younger workers
Transportation; Other Services; Utilities; Real Estate; and Educational Services have the oldest workers
The workforce is aging over time – more workers aged 55 years & over

9. Wage Growth
Median wages have been rising across the board, for all age groups
Rising fastest for the youngest workers; though they have the lowest wages
New opportunities have opened since 2011; more job mobility & wage competition
Accommodation & Food Services
Hours are also up!

10. Wage Growth Wages are lower in Region 5 – North Central than the state
Lowest median hourly wage of any region (Twin Cities = $21.55)
$1.78 below Region 7W
$2.08 below Region 7E
$1.24 below Region 4
Wage gaps are relatively small for lower-paying occupations; but large for high- paying jobs

11. Job Vacancies
Job vacancies in Region 5 support the picture of a strong labor market with extensive job opportunity
Averaging about 2,700 job vacancies over the past 4 years
Record level of 4,117 vacancies in Qtr (Qtr = 2,397)
Postsecondary education requirements have not changed dramatically over time – typically between 25% and 40% of vacancies…
But wage offers are climbing
From $10.95 in Q to $12.16 in Q4 2017

12. Occupations in Demand Over 200 occupations in demand in Region 5
Ranging from short-term on-the-job training to advanced degrees
Northwest Minnesota region is projected to gain nearly 9,250 net new jobs from
61,000 replacement openings
Largest growth in health care and support; sales & related; personal care & service; and construction & extraction
Declines in production; office and admin. support; manage- ment; education, training & library; and farming

13. Cost of Living Tool $47,040 (state = $55,200) Hourly Wage = $15.90
What is the basic needs cost of living budget for a typical family?
$47,040 (state = $55,200)
Hourly Wage = $15.90
mn.gov/deed/col/
Find out how much it costs to make it from county to county
Regions, EDRs, Counties
One full-time worker | Two full-time 2,080 hours | 4,160 hours
Cost of living for a Single person with no children = $28,692
Required Hourly Wage = $13.79
Median hourly wage offer was $12.16
8 of the 14 industries had median wage offers lower than that in Qtr …

14. Regional Profiles Demographics Labor Force Incomes, Wages Occupations
Demographics
Labor Force
Incomes, Wages
Occupations
Economy
Manufacturing Profiles
Local Look blog posts
northwest/northwest-blog.jsp

16. THANK YOU! Questions? Cameron Macht
Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager
Labor Market Information Office