Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013 Crop Market Outlook Ackley State Bank Ag. Outlook Meeting Iowa Falls, Iowa Dec. 12, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44712,35810,725 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,7081, Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18213,51511,814 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1254,7954,5474,150 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5915,0195,0114,500 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3701,4071,4261,367 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9801,8341,5431,150 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,05512,52711,167 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081, Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)2,9673,3593,3293,0942,971 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1853,5123,4953,3253,160 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6621,7521,6481,7031,570 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,2791,4991,5011,3621,345 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0473,3613,2803,1553,031 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Prices

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected Corn Yields

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected Soybean Yields

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Weather Source: USDC and USDA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Pork Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Beef Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Per-Capita Meat Consumption Source: FAPRI-MO

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population (billion) World6.831World7.558World9.202 China1.330China1.385India1.657 India1.173India1.326China1.304 U.S.0.310U.S.0.341U.S Indonesia0.243Indonesia0.268Indonesia0.313 Brazil0.201Brazil0.223Ethiopia0.278 Pakistan0.177Pakistan0.204Pakistan0.276 Bangladesh0.158Nigeria0.182Nigeria0.264 Nigeria0.152Bangladesh0.181Brazil0.260 Russia0.139Russia0.132Bangladesh0.234 Japan0.127Mexico0.125Congo0.189 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 10 Largest Economies (GDP Rank) US China US JapanIndia GermanyJapan Brazil IndiaGermanyBrazilJapan FranceBrazilGermanyRussia UKFranceRussiaMexico BrazilRussiaFranceGermany ItalyUK Indonesia CanadaItalyMexicoFrance Source: PwC, The World in 2050, January 2011

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 12/10/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 12/10/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Acreage Shift by Crop Source: USDA-NASS Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Acreage Shift by State Source: USDA-NASS Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Soil moisture issues  Biofuel and export strength  Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA 2012/13 Futures (12/10/12) 2013/14 Futures (12/10/12) Corn$7.40$6.75$5.98 Soybeans$14.55$13.95$12.70  Risk management  Crop insurance  Price protection

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: