1. 2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook
Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA Annual Meeting
Ames, Iowa
Feb. 7, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS (2012-2011)

13. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

19. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

20. U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds

22. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,869
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,548
4,450
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,367
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
950
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,267
Ending Stocks
602
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 22 22

23. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,605
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
119
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,070
Ending Stocks
135
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 23 23

24. Prices

25. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

26. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2012 Yield
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

27. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 27 27

28. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 28 28

29. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 29 29

30. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

31. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

32. Corn Grind for Ethanol

33. Ethanol Stocks

34. Fuel Prices

35. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

36. Current Corn Futures
6.78
5.57
5.37
Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013

37. Current Soybean Futures
14.18
12.82
12.44
Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013

38. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

39. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013.
Source: USDA-NASS

40. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

42. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(2/5/13)
2013/14
Corn
$7.40
$6.78
$5.57
Soybeans
$14.25
$14.18
$12.82
Risk management
Crop insurance
Price protection

43. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: