Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Fundamental Analysis of Crop Markets Minnesota Master Marketer Program Mankato, Minnesota Feb. 10, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Δ Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)10,75513,82914,21613,6010 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) ,2321,7310 Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)11,90414,68615,47915,38210 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,3155,0405,3155,3000 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,6415,1245,2095,22525 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3971,3691,3591,3700 Exports(mil. bu.)7301,9201,8641, Total Use(mil. bu.)11,08313,45413,74813, Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)8211,2321,7311,83735 Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Δ Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)3,0423,3583,9273,9300 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2523,5704,0524,1510 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6891,7341,8731, Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,3171,6381,8431,6900 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1113,4783,8613, Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Δ Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)2,2522,1352,0262,0520 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1183,0262,7662,9240 Food(mil. bu.) Seed(mil. bu.) Feed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,0121, Total Use(mil. bu.)2,4002,4362,0141, Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yield Estimate Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Winter Wheat Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2016 Estimated Acres Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Biodiesel Production Source: EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use Production(mil. metric tons) Imports(mil. metric tons) Total Supply(mil. metric tons) Domestic(mil. metric tons) Exports(mil. metric tons) Total Use(mil. metric tons) Price($ per ton) Source: USDA-ERS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports to China Source: USDA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Wheat Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2016/17 Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-OCE

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Arable Land

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Pork Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Beef Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Poultry Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Top 10 populations Source: CIA World Factbook

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population growth 2016 to 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economic growth rates Source: CIA World Factbook

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Beef consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Pork consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Chicken consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean meal consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Emergence Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Corn Yield Estimate

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Soy Yield Estimate

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC 3-Month Temperature Outlook

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC 3-Month Precipitation Outlook

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC ENSO Cycle

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Markets Source: USDA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population vs. arable land share of global population arable land China19% 5% India17%10% US 4%13%

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Arable Land

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: