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NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED “Afghanistan continues to face grave risks from common threats, not only terrorism and extremism. The peace and reconciliation process.

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Presentation on theme: "NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED “Afghanistan continues to face grave risks from common threats, not only terrorism and extremism. The peace and reconciliation process."— Presentation transcript:

1 NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED “Afghanistan continues to face grave risks from common threats, not only terrorism and extremism. The peace and reconciliation process is of particular urgency as the present time” President Karzei in Tokyo Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program 5 Major General D A Hook CBE Royal Marines Director Force Reintegration Cell Sep 11 to Oct 12 NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

2 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 2 TRACK 1: POLITICAL RECONCILIATION Dialogue between GIRoA and senior leadership of major insurgent groups Aim is to reconcile en masse Afghan Reconciliation and Reintegration Tracks TRACK 3: REINTEGRATION Fighters and low to mid level commanders returned to their communities Subject to local & national vetting TRACK 2: SENIOR LEADER REINTEGRATION A program designed to entice individual senior leaders out of the fight Under development by Afghans Carefully developed to not compromise political reconciliation NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED All three tracks are interrelated and complimentary

3 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 3 Insurgents permanently leave the fight and return to their communities with honor and dignity, accepting their duties and responsibilities as full citizens of Afghanistan Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program APRP is: An Afghan led political peace initiative Centered on local negotiations and grievance resolution Focuses on alienated communities, not just the fighters A long term process for all Afghans An integral element of the COIN campaign A key building block of Transition Fundamental to the strategic peace process APRP is not: An economic package for ex- combatants “Surrender” A compromise on human rights Easy or quick NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

4 Text Building APRP and Execution NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED Phase 1 - Afghan & International Political Consensus (Nov 09-Oct 10) President Karzai’s Inauguration - Nov 09 London Conference – Jan 10 Interim Guidance – Apr 10 National Peace Jirga – Jun 10 Presidential Decree – Jun 10 Kabul Conference – Jul 10 Joint Order – Sep 10 High Peace Council – Oct 10 First reintegree – Oct 10 Phase 2- Building While Executing (Nov 10-Oct 11) Phase 3- Accelerating Execution (Nov 11-Oct 12) Increasing Rates of Reintegration: 60 % increase since Nov 11 to 4417 200% increase in RC(E) APRP Structures: PPC & PJST in all priority provinces Small Grants doubled to 52, in all provinces with reintegrees Summer Opportunities: SPAs reinforce IC’s commitment Counters TB outlast GIRoA narrative Ramadan & Hajj in fighting season Indications of Taliban fracturing over peace talks Security Transition Tranche 3 Exploitation: Rabbani-led HPC stratcomm reinforced by ISAF ISAF strategic targeting & influence ISAF KLE to get ANSF out in front in supporting APRP Reintegrees Jan 2011- 627 Dec 2011- 3028 Provincial Structures Jan 11: No PJSTs/ No PPCs Dec 11: 26 PJSTs / 31 PPCs Increased Afghan Support Should Taliban fighters be allowed to reintegrate into society? Jan 11- 40% Yes / 30% No Oct 11- 75% Yes/ 15 %No Community Recovery Jan 11- No Small Grants Dec 11- 27 Small Grants Jan 11- No Ministry Programs Dec 11 – 24 Ministry Programs Jul 11 - Gen Allen COMISAF Mainstreaming ISAF Support Op SOLA Reintegration Surge

5 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 5 Revised Reintegration Strategic Framework Influence Tactical Execution Operational Operationalize Synchronize Prioritize Resource DCOS INT Intel support DCOS OPS CJ35 Synch FRIC DCOS STAB COS KLE DCOS COMM IJC COMISAF/SCR Strategic Engagement Influence HQ ISAF NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED PoA High Peace Council Provincial Governor Provincial Peace Committee Provincial Joint Secretariat Team GIRoA MOD/MOI Joint Secretariat Influence & partner Influence thru ARP funding SOJTF Pressure INS thru targeting NTM-A Trained ANSF Village Stability Operations CFSOCC-A USFOR-A TF 4-35 Pressure INS thru detention Messaging and Narratives IO TSTs National Governments NAC, MC IC: Wider donors Embassies Academia Opinion informers UNDP Districts OCC-P OCC-R TF & Combined Teams Regional Commands Synchronized APRP and Afghan security operations, supported by ISAF and the IC

6 Text 6 Stage One: Outreach SOCIAL OUTREACH, CONFIDENCE BUILDING, NEGOTIATION Social outreach and messaging Contact Establishing dialogue Negotiation Grievance resolution NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED ISAF Support Required: Understand local grievances Kinetic and non-kinetic pressure Synchronized messaging with GIRoA Enable Afghan outreach Use VSO to promote the APRP through community engagement Encourage ANSF outreach Required Measures: NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED GRIEVANCE RESOLUTION

7 Text 7 Stage Two: Demobilization of APRP DEMOBILIZATION Required Measures: Registration Formal vetting/Assess Biometrics/ID card Weapons registration Community security NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED ISAF Support Required: Partner, oversee and enable support to demobilisation events Support GIRoA to exploit demobilisation events to promote peace and reintegration Coordinate detainee release activities NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

8 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 8 Stage Three: Community Recovery CONSOLIDATION OF PEACE AND COMMUNITY RECOVERY Types of Programs: Small Grants Literacy, and vocational education Community recovery Agriculture, rural development and access, and water sanitation Public Works Corps ISAF Support Required: Advise and assist JS in delivery of APRP community recovery programs Advise and assist line ministries in delivery of APRP programs Advise and assist provincial authorities in use of small grants and capacity building Use available ARP as an accelerant Leverage other IC development NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED REFORESTATION Reforestation

9 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED APRP and ARP Funding Snapshot As of June 2012 NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

10 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED Increasing Support 10

11 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 11 Reintegration Contributing to a Comprehensive COIN Campaign General Allen- Letter to the Troops 18 July 2011 We will continue to capture and kill the enemy and remove him from the battlefield through reintegration. Reintegration is the logical outcome of any counterinsurgency campaign and will flow directly from unrelenting pressure on the insurgency writ large. Using Afghan mechanisms to support reintegration, we will seek every opportunity to permit insurgents to cease fighting and join the peace process. General Allen- Acceleration Reintegration, 7 June 2012 There is an opportunity this year to take advantage of internal tensions within the insurgency and the early Ramazan to accelerate reintegration over the summer/fall fighting season. Our success during this fighting season is critical to ensuring successful transition to Afghan control and reintegration and APRP Stratcom are important tools for that support this effort. I see this acceleration as one of my top priorities and we can build on the good work already done. This [reintegration] is bigger than the FRIC. I want a named Operation, synchronized by DCOS Ops, and overseen by a decision board chaired by DCOM. NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

12 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED Individual Insurgent Motivations Why did they fight? For security reasons 19% Taliban pressure 14% Belief in the cause 16% Employment 17% Lack of Governance 9% Presence of Foreigners 8% Tribal grievances 6% Why reintegrate? Tired of fighting 78% Security and Better Life 60% Want Peace 62% Solve grievance 30% Not to be targeted 10% Individual needs on reintegration Job at ALP 41% Literacy Education 37% Shelter housing 34% Vocational Training 34% Political Amnesty 17% Job at ANSF 15% The local fighter is therefore often an accidental guerilla – fighting us because we are in his space, not because he wishes to invade ours. He is engaged (from his point of view) in ‘resistance’ rather than ‘insurgency’ and fights principally to be left alone. David Kilcullen, The Accidental Guerilla Note: Data from 3129 surveys, most from RC (N) and RC (W) NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

13 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED HERAT FARAH BADGHIS GHOR BAMYAN WARDAK GHAZNI PAKTIKA PARWAN KHOST LOGAR PAKTIYA NANGARHAR PANJSHAYR NURISTAN KUNAR LAGHMAN KAPSIA FARYAB SAR-E PUL JOWZJAN BALKH SAMANGAN KUNDUZ BAGHLAN TAKHAR BADAKHSHAN correct as at: 16 Nov 2012 Wardak Parwan Khost Logar Paktiya Nangarhar PanjshayrNuristan Kunar Laghman Kapisa Balkh Faryab Sar-e Pul Ghor Jowzjan Zabul Uruzgan Takhar Kunduz Kabul NIMROZHELMAND KANDAHAR ZABUL URUZGAN DAYKUNDI KABUL TotalCategories Reintegrees enrolled Awaiting verification Recidivists Badghis Reintegration Status: Enrollment 5627 104 0 0 339 13 0 234 9 0 154 21 0 339 18 0 527 13 0 171 9 0 0 0 0 340 0 0 64 5 0 247 0 0 65 0 0 581 28 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 14 4 0 22 6 0 3 2 0 24 3 0 115 20 0 276 0 0 114 16 0 9 7 0 0 9 0 28 1 0 150 19 0 13 0 0 209 6 220 0 3 1 1395 1 59 10 1 16 18 1 Daykundi

14 Text NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED Afghan Peace and Reintegration Program QUESTIONS?


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