Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
Lanarkshire comprising East Dunbartonshire, North and South Lanarkshire OK Glasgow

Contents Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision
Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs) Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: Lanarkshire in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of Lanarkshire Region Section 6: The Lanarkshire Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in Lanarkshire Section 8: The People of Lanarkshire Section 9: The Lanarkshire Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in Lanarkshire Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in Lanarkshire Section 12: Skills Provision in Lanarkshire Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work Poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s People Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s both in terms of depth of recession and time to recover GDP. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Different sectors had different rates of recovery. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000 have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and In-Work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15, 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and In-Work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public Sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no/low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. Lanarkshire in Context
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: Lanarkshire’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and commuting patterns Glasgow City Region SIP/Investment Glasgow

Lanarkshire in Context (1)
The Lanarkshire region is a largely urban economy which generates 10.5% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region’s proportion of the Scotland total has remained fairly constant over the last 10 years. GVA has been increasing since 2012, with quite strong increases in 2013 and 2014, following several years of output contraction from 2006, even prior to the recession. Total GVA in 2014 (latest data) was £12,496m in real prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The manufacturing sector remains important to the Lanarkshire economy in terms of output, and at 14% this is the largest sector. Following this, it is the retail and public services sector that are the most important. There is a weaker professional, business and financial services sector in Lanarkshire than elsewhere. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Region (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

There were 274,900 employed in the Lanarkshire region in These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment had been increasing over the period from , although the number of jobs in 2015 fell by 400. The changes in job numbers mask some key labour market changes and dynamics. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change in the Region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

There are areas of deprivation within the region, and some suffer multiple disadvantages including exclusion from the labour market. The number of datazones in the most deprived 10% in Scotland has increased since 2009 and although there had been jobs growth in the recovery, not all those living in the region were accessing these opportunities. For more information see Section 7 on the Labour Market. Household incomes are much higher in East Dunbartonshire than other parts of the region. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey Household incomes in South Lanarkshire are close to the Scotland average, although North Lanarkshire has a higher proportion with lower incomes. Glasgow

The Lanarkshire region comprises North and South Lanarkshire, as well as East Dunbartonshire. Commuting into Glasgow City or to Lanarkshire for employment is commonplace from East Dunbartonshire. Those from the two Lanarkshire authorities work locally, or commute, typically to Glasgow City. More information is at Section 8: The People of the Lanarkshire region. Commuting Flows Just over half of those in North and South Lanarkshire work in their local area. In East Dunbartonshire the proportion is much lower, at 26%. Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

Lanarkshire Region in Context (6)
The Glasgow City Region Skills Investment Plan (2016) Glasgow and Clyde Valley (now Glasgow City Region) City Deal: agreed among UK and Scottish Governments and City of Glasgow, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire local authorities (2014) Skills and Employment Working Group established also including SDS, DWP and colleges Consultancy support commissioned to develop Skills Investment Plan, including wide-ranging consultation and workshops Draft plan now agreed by Working Group, local authority chief executives, Cabinet and SDS Development of detailed Action Plan remitted to Working Group Glasgow

Lanarkshire Region in Context (7)
The Glasgow City Region Skills Investment Plan (2016) Glasgow

5. Lanarkshire: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added (GVA) per worker as the best measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the Lanarkshire region has increased since 2012, faster than the Scotland rate of increase in 2013 and at 3.8% slightly bellow the Scotland growth rate of 4.3% in Indeed, GVA change in the Lanarkshire region has followed the trend across Scotland closely, with a fall in output between 2007 and 2010 as a result of the global downturn, and a further dip in 2012. Total GVA in Lanarkshire ( ) Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment. This is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as financial and professional services are typically more productive than others, with Lanarkshire having a lower share of these sectors than nationally. The production sector is an important contributor to GVA and Lanarkshire remains well represented by the sector. Overall, productivity has continued to rise in Scotland since 2012, whereas it has remained more static in the Lanarkshire region. GVA Per Employee (Productivity) Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output is forecast to grow in the Lanarkshire region, and at a rate only slightly slower than the Scotland average. Growth of 14.3% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. Output is therefore forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5% between 2015 and 2024, 0.2 percentage points below the Scottish average of 1.7% Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Sectorally, more than 70% of GVA growth in Lanarkshire will be provided by private services sectors with the largest contributions from the wholesale and retail trade, real estate and construction sectors. Manufacturing is not expected to make a large contribution to future growth. Information and communication is expected to enjoy the fastest rate of growth (average 3.4% per year), albeit from a small base, followed closely by professional scientific and technical services and administrative and support services, both of which are expected to growth by 3.2% per year. Forecast Output Growth by Sector Glasgow

6. Lanarkshire: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance described in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth Sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self-employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 18,115 businesses in the Lanarkshire region in These are VAT and PAYE registered businesses. The region’s business base has grown faster than the Scotland average in 2014 and The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 was 8.7% compared to 7.3% for Scotland. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
In all, 16% of businesses in the Lanarkshire region are in the professional, scientific and technical sector. Although this has increased, this is below the proportion in Scotland (19%) and the UK (18%). 14% of businesses are in the construction sector, reflecting its importance to the regional economy. The region also has a concentration of arts, entertainment, recreation & other services, 8%, above the Scotland and UK average of 7%, and production businesses, 7% versus 6% in Scotland and the UK. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. The proportion of businesses in each growth sector in the region is close to the Scotland share, with a slightly greater proportion in financial and business services (39% versus 35%) and in the creative industries than nationally (22% versus 19%). Growth Sectors Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Growth sector businesses as a proportion of all business, 2015 37% of Lanarkshire businesses are in growth sectors, compared to 47% nationally. Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
The energy sector (including renewables) and financial and business services are the greatest contributors to growth sector GVA within the region, followed by the creative industries. The energy sector contributes 40% of total growth sector GVA. It is also a sector expected to contribute to future GVA growth in the region. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector GVA as a % of all growth sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015
The Lanarkshire region has a similar profile of businesses by sizeband as the Scotland and UK averages. With 295 medium employers, it has 2% of the business base employing between 50 and 249, and 55 large employers (250 employees or more). Business density in Lanarkshire is 238 per 10,000 compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland, partly reflecting the significant proportion of large employers in the region. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee sizeband and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in Lanarkshire are almost identical to those for Scotland and Great Britain. In all, 47.9% of businesses starting in 2010 in the region had survived until 2014, compared to 48.3% for Scotland and 48.1% in Great Britain. However, the business birth rate remains below the Scotland average, despite considerable increases in start-ups in 2013 and 2014. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self-Employment
Self-employment rates in the Lanarkshire region have routinely been below the Scotland average, reflecting more traditional forms of employment. The rate was slightly higher in 2012 and 2014, both above 10%, although in 2015 the rate was 9.6% in Lanarkshire, compared to 10.8% in Scotland and 13.9% across the UK. Self-Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. Lanarkshire: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in Lanarkshire, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
There were 274,900 employees in employment in the Lanarkshire region in These are jobs in VAT and PAYE registered businesses. Following falls in employment during the recession in 2010 and again in 2012, the number of jobs increased strongly in 2013 and The loss of 400 jobs in 2015 is disappointing, although this reflects static employment levels across Scotland in 2015. Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of employment (17% of the total), and this is the largest sector in Scotland (16%). Production sector employment, at 12% and 34,100 jobs, remains more concentrated in the region than nationally. Construction is also well represented, 23,200 jobs at 8% of the total, versus 5% for Scotland. Employment by Sector and proportion of Total Employment 2015 The professional, scientific and technical sector is under-represented (4% of all jobs compared to 7% across Scotland). Business administration and support is a strong sector in Lanarkshire, 8% of all employment and 22,700 jobs, compared to 7% for Scotland. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The large and concentrated health sector is illustrated right. Although smaller the construction sector is concentrated and had grown in size in the last five years The financial and communication sectors are less concentrated and have declined in size in the last five years. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation, 2015
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. In Scotland and Great Britain, there has been a steady and continuing shift to more professional occupations. Lanarkshire is also making this transition where now 18% of working residents are in professional occupations, although the region’s transition has been less marked than in some other regions. Administrative and secretarial occupations comprise 14% of the total, higher than Scotland’s 11% share although these occupations have decreased over the last 10 years. By contrast, the region has demonstrated a strong rise in caring and related occupations, of close to 30% over the last decade. Employment by Occupation, 2015 Change Over Time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part-Time Employment, 2005-2015
Just under a quarter (24%) of those in employment work part-time and this is a lower proportion than across Scotland and Great Britain. In general, more of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part-time jobs, however in Lanarkshire traditional forms of employment remain strong and above average. More people work for established firms in Lanarkshire than in many other regional economies. There were just 4% in non-permanent employment in 2015, a much lower percentage than for Scotland (5.4%). Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part-Time Employment, Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed-term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average gross weekly workplace earnings in North Lanarkshire are highest in the region, although at £477 these are below the Scotland average of £492. Workplace earnings are slightly lower in South Lanarkshire, at £469 reflecting the rurality of parts of the local authority area and prevalence of lower wage sectors. In South Lanarkshire, and particularly East Dunbartonshire, workers commute out of the local area to better paid jobs. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. Lanarkshire: Its People
The demographic characteristics of a region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change over Time, 2005-15
The Lanarkshire population has grown more slowly than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, with both lagging behind the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of Lanarkshire increased slightly more slowly than the rate for Scotland over the last year ( ), +0.1% compared to +0.5%. Population Change over Time, Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year Lanarkshire Scotland 2005 740,030 5,110,200 2006 742,780 5,133,100 2007 746,600 5,170,000 2008 749,500 5,202,900 2009 752,300 5,231,900 2010 754,380 5,262,200 2011 756,620 5,299,900 2012 758,100 5,313,600 2013 758,430 5,327,700 2014 760,101 5,347,600 2015 761,450 5,373,000 Change 21,420 262,800 % Change 3% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age Profile of the Region, 2015
Lanarkshire has a more middle aged profile than the Scotland average. The age band with the highest growth since has been 65+ (+21%, 137,200) compared to Scotland ( +18%.) Lanarkshire has also seen a higher decline in the age band than Scotland (-18% versus -16%) and has also had negligible growth of the and age bands compared Scotland (+18%). Overall, the working age population of the region increased by 2,900 over the 10 years to 2015. Age Profile of the Region, 2015 Age Profile, Change Over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2012-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland The Lanarkshire population is projected to remain relatively stable compared in Scotland as a whole to (0% compared to +8%). The working age population is also projected to fall faster than the national fall (-15% compared to -4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older and more markedly than other areas. Year Lanarkshire Scotland 2014 759,146 5,346,120 2015 759,869 5,365,420 2016 760,609 5,385,719 2017 761,356 5,406,997 2018 762,078 5,429,012 2019 762,793 5,451,660 2020 763,421 5,474,391 2021 763,979 5,497,079 2022 764,447 5,519,588 2023 764,824 5,541,816 2024 765,118 5,563,670 2025 765,309 5,585,040 2026 765,411 5,605,814 2027 765,413 5,625,892 2028 765,287 5,645,150 2029 765,050 5,663,541 2030 764,684 5,681,121 2031 764,201 5,697,808 2032 763,579 5,713,523 2033 762,814 5,728,318 2034 761,911 5,742,297 2035 760,896 5,755,558 2036 759,766 5,768,217 2037 758,544 5,780,371 Change -602 434,251 % Change 0% 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There has been increasing net migration into Lanarkshire in recent years. Although net migration decreased to 286 in 2012/13, it has since risen sharply in the years to 2014/15, to 1,723. The age band has seen considerable out migration in the year 2014/2015 with 611 migrating out of Lanarkshire. Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
There are high levels of out-commuting in Lanarkshire, with 40% of employed residents working outside the region. North Lanarkshire is the most self-contained labour market, but with only 53% of those employed working locally. East Dunbartonshire has the fewest working within their home area (25%) and little commuting to other parts of Lanarkshire (9%) which may reflect the close proximity to opportunities within Glasgow City. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) Overall, at the time of 2011 Census there were more than 20,000 workers in each of East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire who were commuting out of their local authority area to work. In South Lanarkshire this was close to 25,000 out-commuting. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently available in the data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total East Dunbartonshire 20,186 9,938 10,138 110 30,201 321 -20,063 -211 -20,274 North Lanarkshire 104,501 67,642 34,956 1,903 58,751 662 -23,795 1,241 -22,554 South Lanarkshire 95,125 60,415 32,466 2,244 58,831 810 -26,365 1,434 -24,931 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region Glasgow

9. Lanarkshire: Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
Lanarkshire’s economic activity and inactivity rates have varied between 2005 and 2015, with economic activity increasing to 79% and inactivity increasing to 21% in 2012 and 2013, before falling to 77% and 23% respectively in 2014, before slightly recovering to 73% and 22% respectively in Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. The working age population in Lanarkshire is less qualified, with 38% qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. There is also a higher proportion of the region with no qualifications, 10% compared to the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in Lanarkshire was 91%, above the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland Lanarkshire Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 36,042 Participating (16-19) 32,676 91% 90% Education 26,196 73% 71% Employment 5,719 16% 17% Other Training & Development 761 2% Not Participating (16-19) 1,475 4% Unemployed Seeking 976 3% Unemployed not Seeking 499 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 1,891 5% 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing with the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Year Lanarkshire Scotland Great Britain May 2005 1,330 12,760 115,375 May 2006 1,495 13,265 141,970 May 2007 1,300 12,490 145,310 May 2008 715 7,825 99,735 May 2009 1,215 10,320 123,545 May 2010 3,585 20,870 252,170 May 2011 2,650 20,340 203,195 May 2012 5,930 35,725 378,480 May 2013 6,305 38,090 410,710 May 2014 4,915 29,470 310,865 May 2015 3,155 19,145 197,275 May 2016 2,555 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. Lanarkshire: Skills Challenges
Employers can have difficulties accessing the skills they need, skills deficiencies can be amongst those they are seeking to recruit and amongst those in their existing workforce. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps are a deficit within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Skills Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) The UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2015 indicates that across Lanarkshire skills shortage vacancies are slightly less prevalent than across Scotland at 0.5% of the total workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole. Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 1.0% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% in Scotland as a whole. In all, 8% of establishments report at least one hard to fill vacancy in Lanarkshire, in line with Scotland. Skills Shortages and Hard to Fill Vacancies, 2015 Source: UKCES Lanarkshire Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 1.0% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 0.5% 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges (2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps occur when employers think their employees lack some of the skills required to be fully proficient at their job. Around 4% of the workforce in the Lanarkshire region have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally, proportionally more employers in the Lanarkshire region report skills gaps than the Scottish average. Skills gaps particularly prevalent in caring and leisure employees in the Lanarkshire region 59% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges, 2015
Overall, 57% of Lanarkshire businesses had recruited staff over the year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, in line with the national average. The number of vacancies was above the Scottish average with 18% of employers in Lanarkshire having at least one vacancy. In addition, 30% of employers in Lanarkshire had staff who were under-utilised, this was below the national average. Recruitment Challenges, 2015 Skills Under-utilisation, 2015 Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. Lanarkshire: Schools Data
The number of young people at school and projected school roll numbers are important as those at school will form part of the future labour market. The destination of those leaving school also has an impact on the labour market, as young people might enter employment, education and training, or none of these after school. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There were 46,651 secondary school pupils in the Lanarkshire region in There were slightly higher proportions of S5 (17% v 16%) and S6 (13% v 12%) pupils in Lanarkshire than Scotland as a whole. There were slightly lower proportions of S2 pupils (17% v 18%) in Lanarkshire compared to Scotland. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census Lanarkshire Scotland S1 8,281 50,813 S2 8,124 49,514 S3 8,180 50,197 S4 8,335 51,078 S5 7,816 45,817 S6 5,915 33,936 Total Pupils 46,651 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are expected to decline by 1% to 2018 in the Lanarkshire region. This is less than the 2% drop in numbers anticipated for Scotland as a whole over the same period. Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections Lanarkshire Scotland 2014 46,700 282,800 2015 46,200 278,000 2016 45,800 275,300 2017 45,900 275,100 2018 46,400 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, the Lanarkshire region saw no change in the proportion of school leavers entering a positive destination, remaining in line with Scotland (92%). There were higher proportions of leavers entering Higher Education compared to Scotland (45% v. 37%). The proportion of Lanarkshire leavers entering Higher Education increased by four percentage point between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 Lanarkshire Scotland Positive Destination 92% Higher Education 41% 39% 45% 37% Further Education 22% 24% 19% 23% Training 3% 2% Employment 25% 28% Voluntary Work 0% 1% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 7% 6% Unemployed Non-Seeking Unknown Glasgow

12. Lanarkshire: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. MA uptake in the Lanarkshire region in 2015/16 was 16% of the national total, this proportion has remained constant for three years. In 2015/16, there was a higher percentage of uptake of MAs by the 25+ age group (24%) in the Lanarkshire region compared to Scotland as a whole (20%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Lanarkshire

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split in MA uptake in the Lanarkshire region was broadly similar to the national picture. Over the period 2010/11 to 2015/16 the proportion of male participation in MAs has increased and the female proportion has decreased. More information on gender split in different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). The representation of disabled individuals in MAs across Scotland remains low, 4% of individuals starting an MA had a disability however 19% of the working age population in Scotland have a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Lanarkshire

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in the Lanarkshire region shows a less diverse ethnic mix than Scotland overall. In total, 1.2% of participants in the Lanarkshire Region came from a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background compared to 1.6% across the country. The overall BME working age population in Scotland is around 3.1% (APS 2014) which suggests an underrepresentation of BME individuals in MAs. MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) The most popular framework in the Lanarkshire region was Construction & Related (includes trade such as plumbing and joinery). It was also one of the most gender segregated groups with 99% male starts. Other male dominated groups included Other Manufacturing (100%), Engineering & Energy related (98%) and Automotive (97%). Proportionally, female participation was greatest in Personal Service (includes hairdressing) (90%) and Sport, Health and Social Care (81%). Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender 2015/16 Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Lanarkshire

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in Lanarkshire have been consistently above the average rates for Scotland during the reporting period. In 2015/16, in Lanarkshire, 77% of candidates successfully completed their MA. This was above the national achievement rate, 76%. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FLA is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FLA part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services that are designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers the EF on behalf of the Scottish Government*. The uptake of EF starts in the Lanarkshire region was 3,257 in 2015/16, this accounted for almost 19% of all participants in Scotland. The gender split of participants in the Lanarkshire Region was within 1% the national trend. Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Lanarkshire

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge that young people have of gaining work experience and workplace skills prior to entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to certify that they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16, 20% of the individual starts and 21% of employers involved in the scheme were located in the Lanarkshire region. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Lanarkshire

13. Lanarkshire: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at New College Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire College and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 21,990 enrolments in colleges in Lanarkshire, 8% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, although at a smaller proportion than the national trend. In Lanarkshire, the group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments, contrary to the national trend. This age group accounted for 49% of full-time enrolments and 29% of part-time enrolments. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data shows the total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). This was also true of Lanarkshire, with the same proportion of enrolments. In terms of home area, the majority of students (79% of enrolments) came from within Lanarkshire, with 14% coming from elsewhere in Scotland. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a higher proportion (17%) of college enrolments in Lanarkshire came from the 10% most deprived areas, compared to Scotland as a whole (15%). Compared to colleges across Scotland, Lanarkshire had proportionally more enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (21% vs. 18%) and less in Further Education (FE) (79% vs. 82%). College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 21,990 enrolments in colleges in Lanarkshire, just over a quarter (26%) were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects. The proportion of full-time and part-time enrolments that were in STEM subjects were similar, 25% and 26% respectively. Nearly half (47%) of the males enrolments in the college were for a STEM subject, whereas the figure was much lower for females (6%). Construction (General) had the greatest number of STEM enrolments in 2015/16 and accounted for 30% of all STEM enrolments. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Care was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments in Lanarkshire colleges in 2015/16. It was also one of the most gender segregated subjects with females accounting for 92% of those studying the subject. Across Scotland, Care was also the largest subject area by full-time enrolments. Gender segregation was greatest in Hairdressing (97% female) and Construction (96% male). Special programmes was the most gender equal subject area (51% female). This reflects Health and Production being the top employing sectors in the region as seen in Section 7. Where are the Jobs. College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, similar to the national picture Care had the greatest number of part-time enrolments in Lanarkshire. This subject accounted for 17% of all part-time enrolments in the region. Gender imbalance was greatest in Engineering (97% male) and Hairdressing (94% female). Performing arts was the only gender equal part-time subject (50:50). The high uptake of Care courses reflects Health being the top employing sector in the region as seen in Section 7. Where are the Jobs. College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions, including Lanarkshire, reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 61% of Lanarkshire FE students successfully completed their course. This was lower than the 66% success rate achieved across Scotland. In terms of destination (2014/15), 17% entered employment and 79% of learners progressed onto additional education or training including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course. Glasgow

14. Lanarkshire: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In Lanarkshire, the University of the West of Scotland’s Hamilton campus provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
In 2014/15, the number of students at University of West Scotland Hamilton campus (UWS Hamilton) fell (2% decline) from the previous year and comprised 2% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland HE students numbers grew by 1%. The gender split was 65% female and 35% male uptake, a wider gender gap than respective national uptake of 58% female and 42% male across Scotland. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records. Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at UWS Hamilton were those in the age group, similar to the national picture, A slightly lower proportion of students attending HEI in Lanarkshire came from within the region compared to the national picture. On the other hand UWS Hamilton had proportionally fewer students from elsewhere and outside the UK than the national trend. 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, over 19,000 people from Lanarkshire studied at a number of Higher Education Institutions across Scotland. The most popular was the University of the West of Scotland (20%). This was closely followed by the University of Strathclyde and Glasgow Caledonian University (both 18%). Top 5 universities attended by Lanarkshire residents 2014/15

In 2014/15 at UWS Hamilton, the most popular subject was Subjects allied to Medicine (26% of total) at a higher proportion than across Scotland (13% of total). Other popular subject choices were Business and Administrative studies, Biological Sciences and Social Studies. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 88% of students who studied at UWS Hamilton graduated with a first degree. The remaining 12% achieved a postgraduate qualification. This differed to the national trend with 65% of all Scottish graduates completing a first degree and 35% completing a postgraduate course. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of Higher Education Institutes graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of graduates from UWS Hamilton entered full-time work (63%), which was slightly higher than the percentage nationally (61%). Of those surveyed 2% were unemployed, which was below the national trend (5%). 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from UWS Hamilton went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (42%) were engaged as professionals and the smallest percentage (0.2%) as operatives and in elementary occupations. Proportionally more graduates from HEIs in Lanarkshire went to work in higher level occupations compared to the trend nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from UWS Hamilton worked in a range of industries. The largest group entered the health and social work sector (30%) followed by Education and the Wholesale and retail trade sector (both 12%. This reflects Health being the top employing sector in the region as seen in Section 7. Where are the Jobs. 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. Lanarkshire: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to grow by 0.1% per year on average over , this is slightly below the Scottish average of 0.2%. This is equivalent to the creation of 900 additional jobs in the area by The administration and support activities and construction sector is expected to experience the fastest growth in absolute terms, increasing by 2,600 and 2,400 jobs by 2024 respectively. Professional, technical & scientific services is also expected to enjoy significant job growth; collectively increasing by 1,100 jobs over the forecast period. By contrast, manufacturing is expected to continue to decline with the loss of 3,300 jobs by A further 2,000 job losses are expected within the public administration & defence sector by 2024. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth Lanarkshire Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

Growth is mixed across the occupational groupings. The biggest expected increases are in caring, leisure and other service occupations (600 people) followed by professional and elementary occupations (both 400 people). Skilled trades and sales and customer service occupations are also forecast to see some growth over the period (100 people). The biggest decline is expected in administrative and secretarial occupations (800 people); process, plant and machine operatives and associate professional and technical occupations are also forecast to see a loss of 500 and 400 jobs respectively. Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand Lanarkshire Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics ‘000s Glasgow

The majority of openings in the Lanarkshire region over the forecast period, will require individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above, accounting for 51% of the 102,600 openings. The net requirement is greatest for individuals qualified to SCQF level 7-10, accounting for 46,300 openings over the period This is expected to include both positive expansion and replacement demand. The remaining opportunities available will mainly be for individuals qualified to level 5/6, equivalent to 37% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 102,200 openings within the Lanarkshire region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 700 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 102,900 openings over this period. Openings will be highest within elementary occupations, with 21,900 workers demanded by This is primarily underpinned by replacement demand with limited expansion demand within this group. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. Lanarkshire: What are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

Lanarkshire: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The jobs recovery evident in Lanarkshire in 2013 and 2014 stalled in 2015, with a loss of 400 jobs in the region. The total number of jobs remained largely unchanged across Scotland in 2015, and a number of regions like Lanarkshire demonstrated weak jobs performance in the year. The number of jobs in the region are still above 2009 levels but there continue to be shifts in the sector base. There were significant losses of employment in production (-2,400), but also in business administration & support, professional, scientific and technical services (-800), retail (-700) and construction (-600). At the same time there were increases in accommodation and food services (+1,600), education (+900), public administration & defense (+600) and health (+500). The arts, recreation and other service sector also increased by 500. Despite these shifts, Lanarkshire remains an important region for production employment, 34,100 jobs, accounting for 12% of the total, and above the Scotland average. Although the sector contracted in 2015, business administration & support remains well represented. The health sector is the largest employment sector, as it is in Scotland. Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) Although the proportion has increased over the last decade, there remain fewer employed in professional occupations in the region than the Scotland average. There is a greater proportion working in administration & secretarial occupations, partly reflecting the strong business services base. The region is not homogenous, with far more households in East Dunbartonshire with higher than average household earnings. There remain concentrations of relative deprivation, particularly in parts of North Lanarkshire, where a higher proportion of households are on low incomes, and there are now a greater number amongst the most deprived 10% in Scotland. Those working out of the region typically access better paid jobs. Almost 70% of those in East Dunbartonshire work outside the region; from North and South Lanarkshire the proportion is closer to half. The new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants. Whilst this is the case nationally, rates in Lanarkshire remain above average. Fewer are qualified to SCQF 7-12, when demand for these qualifications continues to increase. More than average have no qualifications. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges The population has increased over the last 10 years, although at a slower rate than for Scotland. It is not expected to increase over the period to 2037, unlike Scotland as a whole, and the working age population is forecast to fall by 15%. The proportion of employers with hard-to-fill vacancies is equal to the Scotland average, and fewer report skill shortage vacancies. Fewer employers also report skills under-utilization to be an issue for them. A higher than average of proportion of employers report skills gaps in their workforce. These are evident in all occupations, highest amongst operatives, and higher than the Scotland average in administration & clerical occupations, a key part of the regional workforce. Glasgow

. Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 4,160 MA starts in 2015/2016, similar to the previous year. The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), administration & related, transport & logistics and retail & customer service. Engineering & energy accounts for just 4% of MAs, despite its importance as a regional employer. Other services including ICT professionals is well represented, above the Scotland average, and this is an important sector for the region’s and Scotland’s economy going forward. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks and MAs are still not commonplace in some sectors such as the creative industries. Glasgow

. Future Trends There are expected to be 1,900 more jobs in the region by Employment growth is expected in construction (+2,400) and professional, scientific & technical services (+2,600). ICT/Digital skills will be required across a range of sectors. Manufacturing is expected to continue to decline, losing a further 3,300 jobs, and employment is forecast to fall in public sector services. Replacement demand is expected to generate more than 100,000 openings to Close to half of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and more than 80% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. The greatest number of openings will be in elementary occupations (replacement demand) followed by professional occupations, as well as sales, administration and care (social care and child care), leisure and other services occupations. Glasgow

Lanarkshire: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Increasing the quality of jobs. The most significant recent employment growth has been in services, including tourism, and the region has not increased the number of higher value added services jobs. There is a need for Lanarkshire to continue to make the transition to a more knowledge-based economy. Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as services, that will demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled workforce. Continuing to increase the number of jobs in the region. Recent job gains in the region have come to a halt, and out commuting to higher paid jobs in Glasgow in particular is commonplace. Whilst it may not be possible to compete with Glasgow for higher level skills, there must be sufficient opportunities for those wishing to work in the region. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement demand is strong, including administration, sales and customer services. Business support services remain an important sector, and accommodation and food service employment has increased. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). The health and social care sector is an important sector, and the ageing population in the region will have care needs that will need to be met over time. The specific needs of the manufacturing sector must continue to be met. There will be challenging times ahead for the sector, yet it still contributes a disproportionate amount of output. Engineering & related skills needs will need to be met through fit for purpose provision. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered. A need to increase the pool of labour and to reduce inequality. There remain inequalities in the region, and those amongst the most deprived 10% have increased. There is a need to ensure that more do not become distanced from the labour market. A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based routes a feature of this. A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. The region is part of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal Region, which is bringing significant infrastructure investment. There must be sufficient construction and related technical skills to meet this demand. Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

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