29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop1 Strategic Futures in the UK A personal reflection Gary Kass

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop2 Outline Developing a long-term perspective –UK Foresight programme (evolution of purpose and method) –Environmental futures (Defra, EA, NE) –Other support for strategic thinking (Cabinet Office, National School for Government) Impact of futures on policy-making –Foresight flood and coastal defence project –Horizon Scanning Centre – S&T Clusters –Evaluation of Foresight –Broader impacts and influences Where next? the future of futures?

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop3 Developing a long-term perspective UK Foresight programme Environmental futures Other support for strategic thinking

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop4 UK Foresight programme Phase 1: 1993: Technology Foresight; sector-driven, delphi process Phase 2: 1999: Foresight: sectors plus themes (e.g. ageing, sustainability); wider range of methods (delphi, road-mapping, scenarios – Foresight 2020) Phase 3: 2002: ‘new’ Foresight – more like technology assessment: topic-led; more explicit futures techniques

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop5 Foresight projects Active projects Land Use Futures Mental capital and well being Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Completed Projects Tackling Obesities: Future Choices The Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum Cognitive Systems Flood and Coastal Defence

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop6 Environmental Futures Defra Horizon Scanning and Futures: –5 years and then major review and redesign Environment Agency science scans and scenarios Natural England futures programme Towards a shared environmental futures capability

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop7 Defra Rural Futures project

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop8 Rural Futures (2)

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop9 Environment Agency scenarios Sustainability-led governance Growth-led governance UK governance systems ‘Restoration’ ‘Alchemy’ ‘Survivor ’ ‘Jeopardy’ H2H2 Material consumption Dematerialised consumption

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop10 NE future-proofing of strategy Critical uncertainties (from review of existing futures work): –Population and demographic change to 2050 –Identity, values and place-shaping –Engagement, learning and behaviour change –Marine futures –Ecosystem services approach to policy –Technology and innovation –Globalisation and the natural environment

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop11 Other support for strategic thinking Cabinet Office –Strategy Unit –Realising Britain’s Potential (Feb 2008) –Professional Skills for Government National School for Government –Strategic thinking training –Strategy benchmarking Scottish Parliament –Scotland Futures Forum

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop12 Cabinet Office – The Strategy Unit Realising Britain’s Potential (Feb 08) Look at the future challenges and opportunities facing Britain in both global & domestic context Set out the key questions and choices that flow from these challenges Establish an evidence base on which policy makers can build future strategy Mixed methods: trends and drivers; public concerns and expectations; review available projections and scenarios; analysis of Britain’s current strengths and challenges Futures in other departments and agencies

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop13 Key challenges for Britain Global Britain: preparing for continued success Economic Prosperity: ensuring that UK workers & businesses can prosper Life Chances: Tackling the barriers to opportunity and reducing inequality to unlock all of Britain’s talents The Population Picture: Supporting a growing, ageing and more diverse population Families and Communities: Strengthening family life and fostering strong communities in Britain Safe Britain: Ensuring a safe and secure Britain for all Personalised Public Services: Tailoring public services The Climate Challenge: Transition to a low-C Britain Democratic Renewal: Modernising democracy

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop14 Outline Developing a long-term perspective –UK Foresight programme (evolution of purpose and method) –Environmental futures (Defra, EA, NE) –Other support for strategic thinking (Cabinet Office, National School of Government) Impact of futures on policy-making –Foresight flood and coastal defence project –Horizon Scanning Centre – S&T Clusters –Evaluation of Foresight –Broader impacts and influences Where next? the future of futures?

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop15 Impact on policy-making Foresight coastal defence project "We are pleased to see that Making Space for Water has incorporated much of the thinking from the Flood and Coastal Defence project at the highest policy level" Phil Rothwell, Head of Flood Risk Management Policy, Environment Agency

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop16 S&T Clusters Impact on wealth creation, changing society or transforming public services: –Advanced materials and robotics; Body and mind sciences; Energy technologies; Information handling and knowledge management; Nanotechnologies; Network interactions; Security; Sensors and tracking –Informed strategic priorities in government’s comprehensive spending review 2006/07

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop17 Foresight evaluation 2006: “The … Programme has achieved its objectives of identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities” “…directly informed national policies and programmes…mobilising diverse groups… engaged senior policy makers.” Currently undergoing impact audit of reports

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop18 Broader impacts and influences Parliamentary inquiry: Governing the Future Strategy Unit & Foresight “highly regarded” Strategic thinking as core skill for policy-makers National School for Government Using outsiders: e.g. Stern Review, Pensions Commission… “In some circumstances, simply conducting research and setting out the evidence creates a compelling case for policy change”, from Governing the Future

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop19 Outline Developing a long-term perspective –UK Foresight programme (evolution of purpose and method) –Environmental futures (Defra, EA, NE) –Other support for strategic thinking (Cabinet Office, National School of Government) Impact of futures on policy-making –Foresight flood and coastal defence project –Horizon Scanning Centre – S&T Clusters –Evaluation of Foresight –Broader impacts and influences Where next? the future of futures?

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop20 Where next? The future of futures Futures is now where strategy was 10 years ago Progress made, but still much to do –The ‘centre’ versus departments –Long-term versus short-term –Process versus product –Openness: uncertainty is not a weakness –Capacity: skills, good practice, recognition & reward –Customers : helping to ask and answer their questions

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop21 The future of futures 2 Foresight under a new Chief Scientist in a new Department and with a new Prime Minister? Joined-up futures? A UK Report on the Future? Parliament’s own futures forum? A cycle of futures – Environmental Futures

29 April 2008EEA Blossom workshop22 A cycle of futures? Joined-up environmental futures 1. Horizon Scanning 2. Analysis & Synthesis 3. Large scale futures research 4. Upskilling Overarching work areas: governance, communication, etc. Individual Prioritisation