1. UK Foresight Programme - Overview ASSOCHAM Conference: “Calamities: Nature or Human Action? Challenges and Responsibilities”. 5 March 2014, New Delhi. Professor Sandy Thomas Head of the UK Foresight Programme

2. Foresight Programme “Helps make decisions today that are resilient to the future” 1.Foresight Projects: major studies looking at key issues 10 - 100 years in the future where science and technology are the main drivers for change, or offer key solutions 2.Horizon Scanning / Policy Futures Projects: small projects aiming to answer specific policy questions 3.Foresight Toolkits and Networks: share best practice within and across government

3. Foresight reports Migration Computer Trading Disasters Identity Obesity Land Use Mental Capital Global Food InfectiousDiseasesIntelligentInfrastructure Brain Science Cyber Trust Flooding 2008 2013 2012 20102007 200620052004 20092011

4. Five Challenges A Balancing future demand and supply sustainably C Ending Hunger D Meeting the challenges of a low emissions world B Addressing the threat of future volatility in the food system Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world E E

5. Food system contributes to climate change 10-12% GHG emissions 30% including land conversion CH 4 from ruminants and irrigated rice N 2 O from fertilisers In all cases climate change makes ending hunger more difficult Include in climate change negotiations Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the UK food supply chain, 2007 Source: Defra statistics.

6. Reducing Risks of Future Disasters (2012) 1.Identify risk 2.Decide how to respond to risk 3.Act to address risk 4.Monitor outcomes 1 2 3 4 For disaster risk, science plays an important role at each stage This framework is used in many sectors for addressing risk:

7. RRFD’s key messages More people are at risk than ever from natural hazards, particularly in developing countries. This number will rise over the next 30 years. The use of science to reduce the effects of future natural hazards such as floods, droughts and earthquakes must be stepped up and adopted more widely. Emergency response is vital but it’s important to ask whether more can be done to anticipate these events and limit their impacts, saving lives and livelihoods. Choosing to deploy resources for disaster reduction, but science has the potential to help make these decisions. It tells us why disasters happen, where many of the risks like and for many disaster when they will occur. So disaster and death are not the inevitable consequence of greater exposure to hazards. Impacts can and should be stabilised. Source: UNICEF 2012 Source: CERN

8. Nature 2011, Vol. 478 Migration and Global Environmental Change

9. Key Messages Trapped populations Movement towards environmental risk Migration as adaptation Action required now

10. Flooding and Coastal Defence Scenario analysis By 2080 BAU leads to increased risk in all scenarios: Up to 20-fold increase in economic damages to £20 billion p.a.; environmental degradation; and increased social vulnerability 2002 National Enterprise Local Stewardship World Markets Global Sustainability

11. Quantitative and qualitative modelling coupled with scenario analysis, map future risks and the impact of response measures. By combining response measures, future risk can be reduced to acceptable levels. How has “Future Flooding” impacted decision making? 2080 “Business as usual” leads to unsustainable risk Response portfolio reduces risk to acceptable levels Impact FF significantly informs: Increased government spend on flood defence; England’s 20-year strategy for flood risk management; Recommendations and action in response to UK 2007 flood events; Legislation – Flood and Water Management Act 2010; and Major infrastructure planning – eg Thames Estuary 2100 project

12. How Foresight achieves impact Early and sustained stakeholder management High quality analysis Innovation throughout Project scope and relevance Timing Review

13. Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for sustainable manufacturing Future of Manufacturing (2013) The Future of Cities (early findings - late 2014) Recent and ongoing projects

14. UK Foresight Programme - Overview ASSOCHAM Conference: “Calamities: Nature or Human Action? Challenges and Responsibilities”. 5 March 2014, New Delhi. Professor Sandy Thomas Head of the UK Foresight Programme