TFIAM 36 th meeting Laxenburg, 6-7 October 2009 draft chairmans report available as informal document

Some highlights 1. Review of GAINS - fit for purpose - conservative assumptions for technology & non- technical measures 2. Target setting indicators – aspirations for 2050 Need for persuasive effect-indicators for ozone & nitrogen in ex-post analysis; radiative forcing 3. Flexible/economic instruments How to acknowledge uncertainties? 4. Assessment of technical annexes How to translate limit values per installation into average emission factors per sector

Baseline development The future is not what it used to be! –What will be the results of ‘Copenhagen’? –What will be the effects of the economic crisis? How to deal with these uncertainties in the policy process? We cannot wait forever! How can we start negotiations in 2010?

EECCA No official national baselines submitted Available: WEO 2008 & WEO 2009 (without/with economic crisis) For EECCA-countries assumptions on the implementation of current legislation are more important than assumptions on economic and energy projections. Proposal: –in the baseline use conservative assumptions on CLE –analyze effects of additional measures (implementation of technical annexes)

EU27+ From EU27 + Norway, Switzerland, Croatia, Macedonia, Turkey: (after 2 years) 13 national baseline projections have been submitted. Economic growth assumptions will first of all affect the costs of an abatement strategy, and can have some effect on the optimal distribution of efforts, provided that the scenario is consistent. But national baselines show a large variety in assumptions on economic growth, oil- and carbon prices and domestic climate policy. If used in optimization such inconsistencies would distort the resulting emission ceilings

EU27+ Proposal PRIMES 2009 (including the economic crisis and those C&E-measures that are already in place) offers a consistent - conservative - baseline for optimization; provided that: The EC facilitates that major disagreements between PRIMES2009 and national data can be solved (e.g. non- commercial wood burning, black liquor for paper industry, new power plant permits, …). The EC facilitates that for sensitivity analysis (on the cost- estimates) a PRIMES-2009 variant is being developed with higher economic growth (towards the ‘Lisbon target’) and C&E-measures in place. Given certain environmental ambition levels CIAM is requested to optimize emission reduction efforts both with air pollution measures only and with GAINS in full mode

Ex-post feasibility analysis with national baselines Parties are stimulated to assess the feasibility of obligations that follow from GAINS-optimizations on the basis of their own national protections. For those 13 parties that delivered such a national projection in time CIAM can do this assessment. Results of such feasibility analysis can be used in the negotiations.