2014 A NEW FOCUS ON EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE Part 1 of 2 Parts Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PRESENTATION IS TO FACILITATE PLANNING FOR THE 3 rd WORLD CONFEENCE TO BE CONVENED IN JAPAN IN 2015

THE PERSPECTIVE IS THE USA, BUT IT CAN BE CHANGED TO THAT OF ANOTHER NATION BY SUBSTITUTING THE APPROPRIATE PICTURES AND INFORMATION

YOURCOMMUNITYYOURCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS MONITORING HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EM RESPONSE RECOSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

PREPAREDNESS AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE ARE ESSENTIAL PILLARS OF EARTHQUIAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE GOAL DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE: CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

REALITY UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY LACK OF EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS INSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OF COMMUNITY

REALITY URGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY LACK OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITY INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS? Preparedness is a state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is sufficient to keep the expected and unexpected effects of an earthquake from causing a disaster Preparedness is a state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is sufficient to keep the expected and unexpected effects of an earthquake from causing a disaster

ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS STRONG GROUND SHAKING TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDES AFTERSHOCKS VULNERABILITIES

STRONG GROUND SHAKING

GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES

AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS INCREASES, SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

WHAT IS PROTECTION? (Protection is a legally mandated state of planning and verified robustness, strength, and ductility for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent loss of function (Protection is a legally mandated state of planning and verified robustness, strength, and ductility for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent loss of function

WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE (Emergency Response is All of the scripted and unscripted heroic and historic responses during the “race against time” after a quake to save lives and protect property (Emergency Response is All of the scripted and unscripted heroic and historic responses during the “race against time” after a quake to save lives and protect property

KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS KNOW YOUR SEISMIC ACTIVITY (i.e., SEISMICITY) KNOW YOUR FAULT ZONES KNOW YOUR VULNERABILITIES

PACIFIC RING OF FIRE PRONE TO EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS

EARTHQUAKES

FAULTS

STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE ACTIVITY

THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE SAN ANDREAS FAULT 600 MILES LONG SOURCE OF M8 EARTHQUAKES IN 1847 AND 1906 SAN ANDREAS FAULT 600 MILES LONG SOURCE OF M8 EARTHQUAKES IN 1847 AND 1906

THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE THE JUAN DE FUCA PLATE SUBDUCTING BENEATH WASHINGTON AND OREGON; POTENTIAL FOR M9.0 THE JUAN DE FUCA PLATE SUBDUCTING BENEATH WASHINGTON AND OREGON; POTENTIAL FOR M9.0

ONE O F THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES WASATCH FAULT (UTAH) 250 MILES LONG POTENTIAL SOURCE OF M EARTHQUAKES WASATCH FAULT (UTAH) 250 MILES LONG POTENTIAL SOURCE OF M EARTHQUAKES

ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SOURCE OF FOUR M8 EARTHQUAKES IN NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SOURCE OF FOUR M8 EARTHQUAKES IN

PREPAREADNESS AND EM. RESPONSE IN A COMMUNITY INCREASE AS THE COMMUNITY’S CAPABILITY TO ANTICIPATE WHAT WILL HAPPEN INCREASES

EXAMPLES OF FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR STATE-OF-THE-ART PREPAREDNESS PLANNING

SAN FRANCISCO: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)? WHAT KINDS OF BUILDINGS ARE AT RISK? WHAT KINDS OF BASIC, ESSENTIAL, AND CRITICAL INFRA- STRUCTURE ARE AT RISK? WHAT ARE THEIR PHYSICAL VUL- NERABILITIES WHAT KINDS OF BUILDINGS ARE AT RISK? WHAT KINDS OF BASIC, ESSENTIAL, AND CRITICAL INFRA- STRUCTURE ARE AT RISK? WHAT ARE THEIR PHYSICAL VUL- NERABILITIES

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)? WHAT ARE THE SOCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHAT IS THE LIKELY DAMAGE DISTRIBUTION? WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO- ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS? WHAT ARE THE SOCIAL VULNERABILITIES WHAT IS THE LIKELY DAMAGE DISTRIBUTION? WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO- ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS?

ANCHORAGE, AK: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

SEATTLE, WA: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

LOS ANGELES: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

ALASKA, WASHINGTON, OREGON, CALIF., PUERTO RICO HOW BIG WILL THE TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP BE?

SAN JUAN, PR: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

SALT LAKE CITY: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

MEMPHIS,TN: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE? HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR? WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR? HOW BIG WILL IT BE? HOW STRONG WILL ITS POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON EMERGENCY RESPONSE

NOTE: EM. RESPONSE IS HIGHLY POLITICAL, SO ONGOING COMMUNICATIONS WITH NUMEROUS PUBLICS THROUGH PRESS CONFERENCES AND THE MEDIA WILL BE NEEDED

SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED DURING EM. RESPONSE DAMAGE; DEBRIS COLLAPSE TRAPPED SURVIVORS SEARCH AND RESCUE CLOCK FIRE INUNDATION EVACUATION CENTERS EM. MEDICAL MASS CARE HAZ MAT RELEASE INJURIES DEATHS

KEY ELEMENTS OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE HISTORIC RESPONSES: The professional and non-professional responders will be making history for at least forty-eight hours (a “place holder” for the intense period of search and rescue operations) and thirty days (a “place holder” for the intense time of the “no room for error” decisions) that must be made.

KEY ELEMENTS OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE HEROIC RESPONSES: The professional and non-professional responders will be working at the margins of their capability for at least twenty-four hours and twenty-one days.

EXAMPLES OF HISTORIC EMERGENCY RESPONSE SITUATIONS

EXAMPLE: 240,000 DEAD WITHIN A FEW MINUTES TANGSHAN, CHINA (1976) EARTHQUAKE: Centered beneath the city, the earthquake caused the impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 230,000 DEAD IN TSUNAMI INDONESIA (2004): The impossible situation thirty minutes after the quake; too late for a race against time” to save lives.

EXAMPLE: 88,000 DEAD; 50 MILLION BUILDINGS DAMAGED IN MINUTES CHINA (2008): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property. CHINA (2008): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 220,000 DEAD WITHIN A FEW MINUTES HAITI (2010): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property. HAITI (2010): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 30,000 DEAD WITHIN THIRTY MINUTES FROM THE TSUNAMI JAPAN (2011): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property. JAPAN (2011): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: SEARCH AND RESCUE TURKEY (1999) KOCALEI EARTH- QUAKE): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property TURKEY (1999) KOCALEI EARTH- QUAKE): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: DAMAGE TO SCHOOL ALASKA (1964): Timely search and rescue during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: DAMAGE FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP ALASKA (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property ALASKA (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LIQIEFACTION NIIGATA, JAPAN (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property NIIGATA, JAPAN (1964): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: COLLAPSE OF HIGH-RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS MEXICO CITY AFTER 1985 EARTHQUAKE: Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION OF ELEVATED HIGHWAY; DEATHS LOMA PRIETO, CA (1989): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property LOMA PRIETO, CA (1989): Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION AND COMMUTING CAPABILITY LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE (1989): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE (1989): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION NORTHRIDGE, CA (1994): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property NORTHRIDGE, CA (1994): Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION OF ELEVATED EXPRESSWAY (NO DEATHS) KOBE, JAPAN (1995): “The forty- eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 600 FIRES KOBE, JAPAN (1995): “The race against time” to save lives and protect property.

CONCLUSION EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” TO BE USED WHEN ANTICIPATING FUTURE IMPACTS

2014 A NEW FOCUS ON EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE Continued as Part 2