2014 Enhanced RCP Jennifer Light & Lakin Garth Regional Technical Forum December 8, 2015

Presentation Overview Today we are presenting the results of the enhanced Regional Conservation Progress survey: Review what the RCP is and what has changed for 2015 Provide a few high level results for 2014 Dig into the more detailed results by sector 2

Regional Conservation Progress Report Per RTF Charter, the RTF shall advise the Council by: “Tracking regional progress towards the achievement of the region’s conservation targets by collecting and reporting on regional research finds and energy savings annually” RCP reports are available going back to

What Data Does the RTF Collect? Previous Years Energy savings by sector Capacity savings by sector (recent addition) Expenditures by sector Projections (3 years out) This Year (2014 Data) Program Level Sector, End Use, Category, Measure info Quantity and units Total energy savings (site, busbar) Total demand savings Incremental costs and Incentive Measure Life Sector Level Total Expenditures 4

Data Collection Process Bonneville provides data for all of its customers – Posted data online and provided a period of review – Enabled us to capture additional self-funded data that was not reported by Bonneville Send survey to IOUs and Energy Trust directly Collect data from NEEA – Ask utilities about NEEA savings to avoid double counting THANK YOU EVERYONE FOR PROVIDING DATA 5

Overall Results 6

Utility Funded Reported Energy Savings aMW

Reported Energy Savings 8

2014 Energy Savings Results (Reported) 9 48 aMW aMW Total 1.2% of Regional Sales

2014 Demand Savings Results (Estimated) MW Total 250 MW 204 MW 52 MW

Demand Savings Estimates 11 Mapped Energy Measure Savings Data to End Uses Assigned End Use & Measure Combinations to Load Shapes Defined Peak as 6 PM on weekdays in Dec/Jan/Feb Created Discrete Bundles by Load Shape Estimated Demand via ProCost 3.0 * Only 2 utilities provided demand savings * Thus, we estimated demand savings for all data sources * Used 7 th Plan peak definition * Load shape mapping requires judgment * Demand estimates driven by available data

Cost Data 12 First-Year Utility CostFirst-Year Total Cost Levelized Utility CostLevelized Total Cost Incentives + Admin cost Incremental cost + Admin cost Incentives + Admin cost Weighted average measure life Discount Rate (5%) Incremental + Admin cost Weighted average measure life Discount Rate (5%) $/kWh and million $/aMW $/kWh

Sector Results 13

2014 Residential Results Residential Energy 14 Residential Demand 118 aMW Total250 MW Total

Top Residential Measure Categories 15 Measure Category2014 aMW Percent of Residential Total Levelized Utility Cost Lighting39.734%$0.036 Televisions34.129%- Behavioral5.95%$0.057 Showerheads5.35%$0.019 Ductless Heat Pumps4.74%$0.032 New Homes*4.34%- Clothes Washers3.23%$0.069 Windows2.92%$0.026 Refrigerators2.72%$0.061 Insulation2.12%$0.026 Air-Source Heat Pumps2.02%$0.033 Duct Sealing2.02%$0.031 * Includes NEEA savings from residential state energy codes

Residential Planning Measure Savings 16 Planning MeasuresaMW Levelized Utility Cost Windows2.89$0.026 Insulation2.06$0.026 Air-Source Heat Pumps2.04$0.033 Duct Sealing2.00$0.031 Power Strips0.67$0.059 Heat Pump Water Heaters0.43$0.046 Commissioning Controls Sizing0.17$0.034 Total Residential Planning9.95 Windows & Insulation are planning measures for Heat Pump homes. The 10 aMW for planning measures represent 8.5% of 2014 residential sector savings (118 aMW).

Residential NEEA & Utility Acquisition 17 Televisions (34 aMW) ENERGY STAR Homes (4 aMW) Clothes Washers (2 aMW) Lighting (2 aMW) Refrigerators (2 aMW) Ductless Heat Pumps (0.5 aMW) Dishwashers (0.5 aMW) HPWHs (0.25 aMW) NEEA Residential Savings

Residential Proven and Planning Measures 18

Commercial Results 2014 Energy Results (aMW) Demand Estimates (MW) 85 aMW Total204 MW Total CAVEAT: HVAC demand still under investigation

Commercial End Uses/Categories Building Commissioning Shell Measures EMS & Other HVAC Controls Rooftop Units HVAC Building Operator Certification Energy Management Large Custom Projects RCM Whole Building/Meter Level Commercial Desktops Network PC Power MGMT, server virtualization, power strips Electronics Commercial State Energy Code Savings Codes and Standards 20

Commercial Lighting End Uses/Categories Lamps/Ballasts/Fixtures Includes technology and application combinations Lamps/Ballasts/Fixtures Occupancy Sensors, Control Panels, Daylighting, Photocells, Timers Lighting Controls LED Exit Signs, Traffic Signals, and Street Lighting Signs and Signals Delamping 21

2014 Commercial Lighting Details 22 CAVEAT Distribution of lighting technologies from data with measure details SHOULD NOT be considered representative of the savings WITHOUT details

Commercial Energy Savings 23 Com Desktops (8 aMW) Commissioning & Retro- Commissioning (7 aMW) Com Energy Codes (4 aMW) Building Operator Certification (2 aMW) Com Real Estate SEM; Health Care SEM (0.7 aMW) Low Wattage T8s (0.4 aMW) 2014 NEEA Commercial Savings

Industrial Results Energy Results (aMW)2014 Demand Estimates (MW) 48 aMW Total52 MW Total

Industrial End Uses/Categories Energy Management Large Custom Projects Whole Building/Meter Level Custom Projects Technology/Application Combinations Controls Lighting Custom Projects Fans System Controls Refrigeration 25 VFDs Green Motor Rewinds Motors/Drives Custom Projects Wastewater Process Loads Custom Projects Equipment System Controls Compressed Air

Energy Management vs. Capital 26 Strategic Energy Management Custom O&M Track & Tune Energy Project Management HP Energy Management Industrial System Optimization Energy Management Lighting HVAC Equipment Compressed Air Refrigeration Capital Projects

2014 Agricultural Energy Results aMW Total

2014 Irrigation Results 28 Irrigation accounts for 83% of Ag savings Scientific Irrigation Scheduling Hardware and Equipment 25% of irrigation savings is unknown Request for more detailed data Irrigation Results

RCP Going Forward 29

RCP Going Forward It’s all about the baseline – What baseline was used? – How do we ensure comparability? Savings over the long term – How do we accurately account for persistence for things like controls and behavior based programs? Contribution to capacity – How can we get a more accurate understanding of the capacity savings from these programs? 30