1. DRAFT Preliminary: BPA Summary of 6 th Plan Supply Curves May 15, 2009 Lauren Gage lsmgage@bpa.gov

2. DRAFT BPA Efforts Review/Analyze  Understand detailed technical inputs  Summarize for high-level understanding  Update analysis with "draft" and “final” supply curve numbers Regional Collaboration  Participate in regional efforts to review and understand curves  Co-lead effort to characterize measures by framework  Find gaps/overlaps and programmatic approaches Feedback to Council  Technical comments  CRAC advisory feedback  Action plan feedback Strategize  Targets, non-programmatic conservation, resource needs  Research agenda strategy  Program implementation strategy  Implement final targets

3. DRAFT 6 th Plan Energy Efficiency Potentials Total regional “technically achievable” potential estimated at nearly 7,000 aMW over 20 years Economic Potential* (NOT FINAL) is 5,700 aMW, 85% of technically achievable (5 th Plan total was 2,500 aMW) Residential is largest sector of potential due to new measures, even though standard CFLs are excluded * Assuming $60/MWh for retrofit and $100/MWh for Lost opportunity. Avoided costs will be determined in draft Plan

4. DRAFT Residential 20 Year Economic Potential

5. DRAFT Commercial 20 Year Economic Potential

6. DRAFT Industrial 20 Year Economic Potential

7. DRAFT Agriculture 20 Year Economic Potential

8. DRAFT Compared to Regional Studies: % of Load Compared to other major regional potential studies, the Council plan is:  Relatively consistent in commercial and industrial sectors  Significantly higher in residential sector  Council includes Distribution Efficiency Improvements and Agriculture

9. DRAFT 10 Year Potential – Regional - Economic Caveat: This will depend on Infrastructure Limits and Portfolio Scenarios  5 Year Average – 243  10 Year Average - 281

10. DRAFT Public Power Share: 2010 – 2014 Economic Assuming Public Power Share of Potential (42%):  BPA share of regional potential is an average of 102 aMW/year  Ramps from 77 aMW in 2010 to 126 aMW in 2014

11. DRAFT Draft Potential vs Historical Achievements In 2008, Public Power (tracked through BPA) achieved 73 aMW in 2008  40 aMW were from CFLs To achieve the average 2010 – 2014 potential:  300% increase in non-CFL savings

12. DRAFT Measure Characterization Framework: Seeking Feedback Is the measure/technology:  RTF Deemed  RTF Approved M&V Protocols  Current BPA Incentive  Program Development Lead Time  Market Readiness (ET, Comm, Std)  Customer Barriers Needs Information Needs Education (training/technical assistance) Needs Incentive (upstream/downstream)  In NEEA business plan  Utility Program Effort  Market Transformation Effort  Needs regional work for code/standard change

13. DRAFT Preliminary Measure Characterizations Seeking Regional Collaboration