Status of HyMeX THORPEX meeting Genève September 2011 Véronique Ducrocq CNRM-GAME Météo-France & CNRS

 to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events  by monitoring and modelling: the Mediterranean coupled system (atmosphere-land-ocean), its variability (from the event scale, to the seasonal and interannual scales) and characteristics over one decade ( ) in the context of global change  to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity. HyMeX objectives Science topics The five science Topics

EOP: Enhanced existing observatories and operational observing systems in the target areas of high-impact events: budgets and process studies (hydrological field experiment) LOP : Current operational observing system and observatories over the whole Mediterranean basin: budgets (data access for research) SOP: Special observing periods of high-impact events in selected regions of the EOP target areas (aircraft, R/V, balloons,…): process studies (research atmospheric/ocean field campaigns) A « Nested » strategy: Observation strategy  International Science Plan published in 2010, first draft of the Implementation Plan discussed at the 5th HyMeX Workshop in May 2011, new version for end of  HyMeX data base is set-up and be progressively filled with LOP, EOP, SOP observations and models

Model-observation synergy LOP/EOP observations with aims to: quantify and reduce uncertainties of the future climate projections, advance the modeling of the continental hydrological cycle and the monitoring of water resources and droughts improve the prediction capabilities of high-impact events by developping convective-scale ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting systems and mesoscale data assimilation Process Understanding Improvement of model parameterizations SOP/EOP field campaigns Observations Models Convection-permitting ensemble hydrometeorological prediction systems Regional Earth System models Model Validation Mesoscale (incl. land surface) data assimilation Data assimilation in cloud/precipitation Seasonal and interannual variability

LOP/EOP/SOP IPCC-AR5 scenario (including decadal forecast) Hindcast: ERAInterim Hindcast: ERA40 The climate models used for hindcast and scenarios will be run with the same set- up for the LOP/EOP/SOP periods process understanding variability LOP/EOP/SOP Hindcast model improvement scenarios All temporal scales 21 st century Example of the obs-model synergy: Regional Climate Modelling HyMeX TTM3 – coord: P. Ruti & S. Somot WCRP/MED-CORDEX done

ENEA MPI CNRM LMD Univ. Belgrade MORCE-MED UCLM/UPM COSMO-CLM (GUF) INSTM IC3 Atmosphere RCM Same ARCM as in RCSM (25-50km) RegCM, ALADIN, WRF, ETA, LMD, PROMES, REMO, COSMO-CLM + other ARCM (50 km) TAU, IIBR, Univ. Istanbul (RegCM) + very high-resolution ARCM (10km) WRF, ALADIN, RegCM, COSMO-CLM (KIT) Regional Climate System Model atm-ocean-land-river atm-ocean-land in development MED-CORDEX/HyMeX Partners and models

Field campaigns in NW-Med SOP1: Heavy precipitation and flash-flooding SOP1: Sep Nov.2012 EOP+: Sep Nov.2013 SOP2: Intense air-sea exchanges (severe winds, dense water formation) SOP2: Feb-March 2013

  time frequency of soundings and AMDAR within sensitive areas (DTS, Eucos framework) SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions Two island sites for monitoring upstream conditions  CNES Boundary layer balloons over the Sea, launched from Menorca air-mer Aircraft over the Sea SAFIRE ATR-42 SAFIRE Falcon 20 DLR Falcon 20 ? Dropsondes WV Lidar

MiniVIEcube 70 Surface stations (Univ. Vienna) Doppler wind Lidars Sodar, MWR, Cloud and K-band radar, Disdrometer, energy balance,and turbulence stations, Scintillometer, RS systems (KIT) WV DIAL, Raman Lidar, X-band radar, Disdrometer (Univ. Honeheim) SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions The Corsica site Wind profilers (VHF, UHF) Lightning sensors (CNRS) The Balearic site Wind profilers (VHF, UFH) WV and aerosol lidars Boundary layer pressurized balloons (CNRS, CNES, Météo- France, AEMET)

SOP1-Air-sea fluxes and ocean heat content Drifters including: SVP drifters Marisondes Argo floats Ocean mixed layer measurements Ship of Opportunity carrying the SEOS (meteo) Box + GPS receiver + thermosalinometer KIT DO128 Turbulent air-sea fluxes Short R/V cruises Enhancement of the surface buoys and moorings with additional sensors (Radiation, raingauge,…) Glider

 Aircraft flights with microphysics and aerosol payloads to monitor cloud and microphysics processes above sites well equiped with operational observation networks and with instrumented watersheds Radar network ATR-42 (1) F20 (1) ATR-42 (2) F20 (2) Flight tracks Entella River catchment SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood

 Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA) SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood Examples over the CI site

 Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA)  Additional research radars, lightning Mapping Array, raingage, discharge measurements Examples over the CV site  Instrumented cross-coastal-barrier transect (modification of the marine moist low-level flow and cloud initiation/growth along the transect)  high-res GPS network for 3D WV field AMF-2 SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood

Preparation of the SOP modelling systems  Preparation of the HyMeX operation center (HOC) co-located with the aircraft base (Montpellier, France), together with virtual operation centers (Spain, Corsica, Italie): webconference, web visualisation platform and forecaster visualisation platform (synergie), involvement of AEMET and Météo-France forecasters for morning briefing, supply of operational and research real-time modelling products Available deterministic models. Available ensemble forecasts.

 Preparation of dedicated real-time operating mesoscale deterministic models over the Mediterranean during the field campaigns: example of AROME-WMED  Incl. Real Time assimilation of EOP-SOP specific observation Datasets (Drifting balloons,…)  More European radar data assimilated (work on radar data format for assimilation purposes), non-GTS hourly surface observations,.. AROME-WMED (2.5 km) 48h forecast, from 00 UTC  Convection permitting ensemble prediction systems :  Design, implementation and validation of convective-scale EPS is an important objectives of HyMeX  Coupling of these atmospheric ensemble systems with hydrological models to issue hydrological ensemble predictions is an other important objectives  HyMeX SOP serves as a testbed for these new EPS Link with TIGGE (report on TIGGE workshops) Link with DAOS (report on DAOS workshops) Preparation of the SOP modelling systems

Streamflow simulated by the hydrological model ISBA-TOPMODEL for a flash-flood case over Southern France watersheds The model is driven by hourly precipitation forecast from an ensemble simulation based on the AROME model (resolution:2.5 km) - Global ARPEGE EPS used as LBC combined with ensemble data assimilation - Vié et al (2010) The model is driven by hourly precipitation fields derived from the AROME NWP operational suite - A object-oriented perturbation method is applied to the determinist QPF – Vincendon et al (2011) ensemble spread between q 0.25 and q 0.75 ensemble median AROME determinist run ensemble members observations Streamflow simulated using: Legend: Preparation of the SOP modelling systems

Running of fully coupled (atmosphere/ocean/wave) COAMPS ensemble system in near real time with high-resolution nests over NW Med (NRL, C. Bishop), in addition to operational products (MERCATOR, MyOcean).  To provide adaptative sampling guidance for oceanic gliders  HyMeX offers region and observations to build and test ensemble DA scheme with option for fully coupled DA. MISTRAL wind region is a laboratory for air/sea/wave coupling Example of the characterisation of the water column carried out with 9 gliders Preparation of the SOP modelling systems

International Partnership CNRS/INSU Météo-France CNES INRA, BRGM CEMAGREF IGN,IFSTTAR CNR CINFAI ENEA OGS INGV ARPA CIMA KIT, DLR, PIK Univ. Hohenheim Univ. Wageningen TU Delft,KNMI AEMET, IMEDEA Meteocat,UCLM,ICM Univ. Barcelona, Balearic islands EUMETNET/EUCOS NOA HCMR Univ. Athens IMS Univ. Jerusalem, Tel Aviv MHS, Univ. Zadar MHS IMS Univ. Vienna, ZAMG EPFL, ETH NOC Univ. Bristol DMN Univ. Rabat INSTM NOAA NRL NASA NCAR Univ. Connecticut, Colorado McGill Env. Canada ONM,CRAAG,INCT COC CIESM An international and multidisciplinary partnership (academic and operational communities, ocean-atmosphere-hydrology-social and economical sciences communities) GPM

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