1. HYMEX - overview SOP 2012 Véronique Ducrocq (HyMeX EC-ISC chair, Météo-France) THORPEX-PDP Working Group, 18 June 2012 http://www.hymex.org #1

2. Introduction  HyMex is a 10-y program devoted to the water cycle in Mediterranean, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of hydrometeorological risks  Within the long-term observation period started in 2010, several special observation periods (SOP= research field campaigns) are envisaged for improving our knowledge about high-impact weather events in order to better understanding, modelling and forecasting them. The first SOP series : -Heavy precipitation event (HPE) and flash-flooding for SOP1 (5 Sept.-6 Nov. 2012) -Regional winds, air-sea fluxes and ocean convection for SOP2 (1 Feb.-15 March 2013) in Northwestern Mediterranean #2

3. Outline  Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues  State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation  Overview of the SOP1 field campaign  The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed #3

4. Outline  Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues  State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation  Overview of the SOP1 field campaign  The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed #4

5. Societal and economical stakes 25 oct. 2009 Gard, 8-9 Sept. 2002: ~700mm in 24h > 20 fatalities, damages: 1,2 billion € Algiers, 10 Nov. 2001: ~260mm in 24 h >800 fatalities, damages: 4 billion € Mediterranean is a large complex terrain region particularly prone to heavy precipitation events Several € billion/year of damages in Mediterranean #5

6. 500 hPa Z Upper/mid- troposphere winds Low-level marine winds L H 40-y composite analysis (ERA-40) for HPE over Southern France, from Nuissier et al, 2011 Predictability issues The synoptic environment propitious to HPE is well known and now rather well forecasted by synoptic scale NWP systems   predictability of HPE occurrence 1-d to 7-d ahead #6

7. Predictability issues 25 oct. 2009 State of art of the kilometric-scale Convection-Permitting NWP systems  But the accuracy of the forecasts is still insufficient to satisfy the demands of the society in terms of location, timing and amount PDF of location errors of AROME forecasts for heavy precipitating systems Location errors < 50 km in 70% of cases (Vincendon et al., 2011) Impact of a 50 km location error on discharge Time-evolution of discharge simulated by the hydrological model ISBA-TOPMODEL forced by: AROME forecast 50-km shifted AROME forecast Radar observations Observed discharge + #7

8. Climate change issues 25 oct. 2009 State of the art of regional climate Earth System modelling and downscaling methods Present climate (1961-1990) Future climate (2070-2099) Regional climate (ARPEGE-Climat) Statistical downscaling (QQ correction) Statistical downscaling (weather type) (Ricard et al, 2009)  Model improvements are needed to increase the reliability of climate projections, particularly with respect to climate extremes #8

9. Outline  Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues  State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation  Overview of the SOP1 field campaign  The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed #9

10. Rapid or moist flow Slow or dry flow deflection Cold pool Orographic forcing convergence French « Cévenol » cases  The characteristics of the marine low-level (conditionally unstable) flows interacting with complex terrain modulate the location, intensity and stationarity of the convective systems Idealized simulations of stationarity MCS with the « true » terrain ( Bresson et al, QJRMS2012 ) Convective cells MCS stratiform part Low-level flow Orographic forcing Cold pool front deflection Low-level convergence #10

11. A Southern Alps case Interaction of the marine flows with orography and cold pool evidenced, but low-preditability of the event, few observations over the Sea for data assimilation and for verification of the high-resolution forecasts Real case simulations of HPE : Var (Soutrhern Alps) case in June 2010 Var, 15 June 2010 400mm/24h @ AFP – G.Julien (Bresson et al, 2012) Phase 1 Phase 2 #11

12. WV6.2 satellite Brightness Temperature The data assimilation fails to correct the first-guess in the convection area Wrong forecast of the upstream convection within the southward flow over the Mediterranean Sea AROME-WMED Observations 07 UTC #12 A Southern Alps case

13. 1. Synoptic wave (Rossby wave train) adapted from F. Grazzini fom Davolio (2012) 2. Low-level flow 3. Interaction with local (orographic) features This seems to be a common features in the three convective events, although with different intensity Italian Liguria-Tuscany cases 25 Oct 2011 4 Nov. 2011 4 Oct. 2010 Very similar large scale patterns (resembling condition for Alpine HPE!) #13

14. Duffourg and Ducrocq (2011)  A low-level marine flow uptaking moisture and energy from the Mediterranean Sea, along its path over the Western Mediterranean rv gained from the sea 24h Anticyclonic context Cyclonic context Water vapor gained from the Sea Evaporation flux over the Sea Residence time in the Mediterranean low-levels anticyclonic situationsCyclonic situations Origin and transport of moisture feeding the HPE, based on multiscale simulations D D-1 D-3 D D-4 #14 Role of the Mediterranean Sea

15. SOP1 objectives 25 oct. 2009 Most of the previous results have been obtained from numerical model simulations. A dedicated field campaign is mandatory to confirm these results by an observational-driven knowledge base. HyMeX SOP1 aim to obtain detailed information on the most extensive-to-date range of processes including:  the convective initiation and the stationarity mechanisms, with emphasis on the upstream marine flow  the air-sea exchanges and ocean mixed layer upstream the HPE(in time and space),  the aerosol-cloud-precipitation processes contributing to HPE over complex terrain and finally land surface processes leading to flash-floods in the North- western Mediterranean.  To support process studies for advancing the accuracy of models ranging from cloud resolving to regional/global climate models. #15

16. Outline  Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues  State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation  Overview of the SOP1 field campaign  The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed #16

17.  Monitoring of the far upstream conditions SOP1 – atmosphere DLR/F20 T-NAWDEX 1-19 oct.-30h RS operating or not at 06 UTC Frequency increase of the operational radiosoundings over land and sea (E-ASAP) and of aircraft (AMDAR) over the Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean domain (through DTS use, EUCOS) Possible common events with T-NAWDEX #17

18.  Monitoring of the upstream conditions 1 2 Water vapor and aerosol lidar Wind profiler ? KIT DO128 KIT cube (3 water vapor & wind lidars, 2 radiometers, 1 sodar, 3 radars (cloud, K and X bands), 2 energy balance stations 10/09-13/10 100h SOP1 – atmosphere Radionsoundings Wind profilers BA site CO site Boundary layer balloons Two upstream islands sites #18

19.  Monitoring of the upstream conditions 1 2 Water vapor and aerosol lidar Wind profiler ? KIT DO128 KIT cube (3 water vapor & wind lidars, 2 radiometers, 1 sodar, 3 radars (cloud, K and X bands), 2 energy balance stations 10/09-13/10 100h SOP1 – atmosphere Radionsoundings Wind profilers BA site CO site Boundary layer balloons Upstream observations over the Sea SAFIRE/ATR42 Dropsondes from SAFIRE/F20, KIT/DO128 Radiosounding from a ship on alert Upstream flights payload: water vapour lidars, aerosols, cloud instruments #19

20.  Monitoring of the near upstream conditions 1 2 KIT DO128 KIT cube (3 water vapor & wind lidars, 2 radiometers, 1 sodar, 3 radars (cloud, K and X bands), 2 energy balance stations 10/09-13/10 100h SOP1 – atmosphere Radionsoundings Wind profilers CO site Coastal observations 1 mobile radiosounding 1 dual radiosounding Low-level wind profilers upstream supersite (sodar, WV-aerosol lidars, cloud radar, radiometer) CV site Operational Nîmes radiosounding#20

21.  Documenter les conditions atmosphériques en amont des systèmes précipitants 1 2 KIT DO128 KIT cube (3 lidars vapeur d’eau et vent, 2 radiomètres, 1 sodar, 3 radars (nuage, bandes K et X), 2 stations flux) 10/09-13/10 100h SOP1 – atmosphere Radionsondages Profileurs de vent 1 Radiosondage mobile 1 Radiosondage « double » Profileurs de vent basses couches supersite Candillargues (sodar, lidars vapeur d’eau- aérosols, radar nuage, radiomètre) Site CO Site CV #21

22.  Monitoring the interaction of the Mediterranean Sea with HPE SOP1 – air-sea gliders Ship of opportunity: bulk air-sea fluxes, surface salinity and temperature, GPS weekly Marseille-Algiers line Additional measurements on operational fixed buoys (precip, radiation, 0-200m mooring line (T,S) drifting buoys SVP Marisonde drifters Argo floats Air-sea fluxes with waveglider Thethys 2 cruise : Ocean profile network 5-22 Sept Air-sea fluxes onboard SAFIRE/ATR42 et KIT/DO128 Air-sea fluxes, surface Salinity and Temperature measurements onboard ship (on alert) #22

23.  Monitoring the dynamics and microphysics within the precipitating systems SOP1 – atmosphere & land surface SAFIRE/F20 Flight over the hydrometeorological sites Cloud radar (RASTA), cold microphysics 1 2 Induction ring, electric field mill Lightning Mapping Array radiometer CV site Site CO Surface stations KIT cube (3 lidars vapeur d’eau et vent, 2 radiomètres, 1 sodar, 3 radars (nuage, bandes K et X), 2 stations flux)

24. R4 R5 R1 R2 R3 D1 D2 S1 R6 T2 T1 LR 15 F1 Radar C-band SP Monte Midia (AQ) Radar X-band DP (RM) Radar X-band DP L’Aquila Radar C-band DP Tufillo (CH) Radar C-band SP Monte Serano (PG) Radar C-band DP Frascati (RM) Disdrometer (AV) Disdrometer (RM) Rawinsonde L’Aquila Lidar Raman L’Aquila Radiometer (RM) Lightning (RM) CI site  Monitoring the dynamics and microphysics within the precipitating systems SOP1 – atmosphere & land surface #24

25.  Monitoring the hydrological processes during flash-floods SOP1 – hydrology ~ 4km² ~10km² ~ 55km² ~1850km² ~2250 km² 100 km² 3 km² Multiscale instrumented watersheds: soil moisture, soil infiltration and resistivity, subsurface flow, gully network, discharge measurements without contact (radar, camera),… During SOP1, measurements on alert: - discharge - isotopes (run-off generation and concentration, impact of the precipitation and soil moisture distribution, river routing) #25

26. Outline  Societal-economical, predictability and climate change issues  State of art of the knowledge on Mediterranean coastal heavy precipitation  Overview of the SOP1 field campaign  The SOP1 dedicated modelling capabilities and testbed #26

27. SOP1 – Operation Coordination  Coordination of the field campaign from the HyMeX Operation Center (HOC) located near Montpellier which will be the French aircraft airport during SOP1  a Mission SelectionTteam gathering atmosphere, ocean and hydrology experts and Météo- France forecasters at HOC 7days a week  daily meeting using videoconference with 3 remote sites (AEMET in Palma, Univ. L’Aquila, KIT-cube team in Corsica)  a field campaign website (sop.hymex.org), with real-time reserach and operational model outputs and observation quicklooks [in addition to the Météo-France visualisation SYNERGIE workstations at HOC] #27

28. HyMeX resources on the SOP website Some examples of dedicated products MCS tracking Radar reflectivityand winds + aircraft real-time position Balloon trajectories Argo float trajectories based on the SYMPHONIE ocean model Ensemble discharge from perturbed AROME rainfall forecasts #28

29. Real-time forecast Convection-Permitting (2-3 km) deterministic NWP forecasts: Dynamical adaptation : AEMET-HIRLAM-CNN (IFS), CNR-MOLOCH (BOLAM), LaMMA-WRF(IFS), LA-MESONH (IFS), UIB-MM5 With 3-h data assimilation cycle: AROME-France, AROME-WMED AROME_WMED domainLaMMA-WRF domain  The last Oct-Nov 2011 cases (Pre-SOP cases) in Italy, France and Spain are used for validation and tuning of models and tools that will be used in real time during the SOP, in addition to be HyMeX “golden cases”: ~20 days with daily precipitation above 100 mm from 20 Oct to 23 Nov. 2011 Incl. 25 Oct. 2011 HPE: Italy – La Spezia – HyMeX post-event survey, 300 mm in 3 hours in Cinque Terre Incl. 4 Nov. 2011 HPE: Italy – Genoa, 400 mm in 12 h Inc. 7 Nov. 2011 Medicane: NW Med. La Spezia Flash-flood (25 oct 2011) 24h rainfall  Some of these models will be coupled to ocean or wave models #29

30. Convection-permitting ensemble SOP1 = test-bed for these new systems (AROME-EPS, COSMO-LEPS) Obs 25 Oct 2011, La Spezia  coupled with hydrological models for flash-flood forecasting AROME EPS based on convective scale ensemble data assimilation using large-scale EPS as LBC (selected by clustering) and stochastic physics 24h rainfall #30

31. Thanks for your attention Thanks for your attention