1. AROME_WMED for HyMeX M.Nuret, N. Fourrié, E. Bresson, C. Jany, P. Brousseau, A. Doerenbecher and colleagues Météo-France / CNRM-GAME

2. AROME_WMED AROME_WMED = special version of the operational model AROME_France for the HyMeX field campaign. non hydrostatic, 2.5km resolution assimilation cycle = 3h boundary conditions = ARPEGE global model

3. AROME_WMED (periods) AWM_OPERX (+48h) AWM_REANA_1X(+54h) AWM_REANA_2X(+54h)?* SOP1 (5/9/2012-6/11/2012) Inter-SOPSOP2 (1/2/2013-15/3/2013) + AROME_France oper. (+30hr) * if extra manpower available

4. AROME_WMED (cycles) AWM_OPER 36t2/37t1 25/09/2012 03UTC  06UTC 37t1 AWM_REANA_1 37t1 AWM_REANA_2 38t1 SOP1 (5/9/2012-6/11/2012) Inter-SOPSOP2 (1/2/2013-15/3/2013)

5. OPER : Jb_1 REANA1 : Jb_1 REANA2 : Jb_2  Jb_1: computed on a convective case from autumn 2010, ensemble method, 6 perturbed members (36t2)  Jb_2: to be computed on a period from SOP1 (autumn 2012), ensemble method, to be defined … AROME_WMED_oper (Jb)

6. Variance-covariance matrix of the guess error (= forecast range +3hr) = Jb 1000hpa ~10km 500 hPa ~15km From: Fourrié et al.,

7. AROME_WMED (coupling) OPER : ARPEGE court cy36t2 then cy37t1 REANA1 : ARPEGE production cy36t2 then cy37t1 REANA2 : ARPEGE production cy36t2 then cy37t1 Impact of the coupling is under investigation ( court vs production)

8. AROME_WMED_oper (relief) Orography difference AWM_oper – AROME_FRANCE  average 27.56m (- 0.16°C for T2m) (relief AWM_oper = relief ½ envelop)  relief AWM_reana1 = relief AWM_oper

9. AROME_WMED_oper (observations) AWM_oper vs AROME_France: basically, the same incoming observation flux GPS more (+) data vs pré-HYMEX period, but less (–) data in AWM_oper vs AROME_France (bias correction scheme issue) BAMED balloons (V and T) RS/4M supplementary HYMEX (since mid-October, BUFR/ASCII issue) in TEMP format RS KIT (Corse) all taken into account (TEMP format) Wind Profiler: for SOP1 available from mid october (only Pierrelatte taken into account, then 5 sites for SOP2 after monitoring) Specific to AWM_oper (vs AROME_France): Spanish surface data: more SYNOP Polar orbiting radiances (AMSU): thinning improved (125km => 80km)

10. AROME_WMED_oper (observations) AWM_oper vs AROME_France: nombre d’observations (messages)

11. AROME_WMED_oper: evaluation AWM_oper : real time suite on NEC (TORI, old computer, computation nodes failures, constraints..) with real time monitoring AROME_WMED +48h forecasts on 00UTC slot available ~ 04.30UTC => forecast bulletin ~ 07.00UTC many technical issues: real time archiving issues cycle change too much radar observations (5/11/2012) observation extraction  95% of the forecats on time (SOP1), 93% (SOP2)

12. AROME_WMED_oper: evaluation T2m HU2m Tb IR Wind(gust) SOP1

13. AROME_WMED_oper: evaluation SOP1SOP2 Rain

14. AROME_WMED_oper: evaluation IOP8 28/09-00UTC to 29/09-00UTC 29/09-00UTC to 30/09-00UTC OBS +24hr +48hr

15. AROME_WMED_oper: conclusion AROME_WMED_oper performance is at least similar to AROME_France, even better for some IOPs (8, 15b) concerning rain weak cold 2m temperature bias (orography difference) GPS bias correction issue AROME_WMED oper and reana1 simulations available on the HyMeX database

16. AROME_WMED_reana1 AWM_rena1 vs AWM_oper: => observations observations re-extracted (no cut-off constraint) + spanish SYNOPs [5/9/2012 – 4/10/2012] Hu from balloon BAMED + wind profiler (only Pierrelatte was assimilated in oper. for SOP1): Pierrelatte+Cld-Ferrand+Candillargues+Perpignan+Marignanne, availability on GTS mid October. RS/4M before 10 October 2012 in TEMP format => configuration unique cycle (37t1) forecast maximum range :+54h coupling: ARPEGE production period: SOP1

17. AROME_WMED_reana1 BAMED balloon: ~ 400 observations (Hu) Wind profiler: +64% Radiosonde: +4% Synop: +2% QPF: impact>0 1st period, neutral 2nd period: is cycle change the dominant effect? SOP1

18. AROME_WMED_reana1 Pmer(Hpa) Échéance(h) Humidité(%) FF(m/s) Échéance(h) DD(°) Échéance(h) T2m(°) Échéance(h) Nébulosité(%) AROME_WMED_REANA1 vs AROME_WMED_OPER (validation against surface data = SYNOP) => neutral impact

19. AROME_WMED_reana1 AROME_WMED_REANA1 vs AROME_WMED_OPER (validation against surface data = buoy)  neutral impact From Rainaud R. et al.: « Air-sea exchanges over the Western Mediterranean Sea during the HyMeX SOP1 using the AROME-WMED model », submitted to QJRMS, May 2014.

20. AROME_WMED_reana1 Échéance(h) AROME_WMED_REANA1 vs AROME_WMED_OPER (validation against upper-air data = RS) => neutral impact Eqm Ect |Biais| Pression(hPa) Géopotential Température Humidité Wind Speed

21. AROME_WMED_reana1 AROME_WMED_REANA1 vs AROME_WMED_OPER (validation against integrated data = IWV GPS) => positive impact Humidity Échéance(h) Réseau (UTC) IWV(mm) Corrélation IWV Réseau validation GPS

22. AROME_WMED_reana1 AROME_WMED_REANA1 vs AROME_WMED_OPER (validation against upper air data = F20 dropsondes) => weak positive impact Réseau (UTC) Validation network dropsondes F20 (35 dropsondes, ~4000 données) Corrélation Modèle-observation(%)

23. AROME_WMED_reana1: conclusion overall quality of AROME_WMED_oper and AROME_WMED_reana1 is similar more data, but no significative improvement, except maybe a weak signal in QPF during the 1st period (before 25/09/2012) – maybe as a result of the conjunction of more data and cycle upgrade

24. AROME_WMED_reana2 new 38t1cycle on new machine BULL (oper. since 14/01/2014) doppler winds from Mt Maurel, more SEVIRI radiances over land, more IASI channels, σo tuned, orography, … new orography (same as AROME_France oper. which is new in cy38) new Jb enhanced observations flux vs AROME_WMED_reana1:  high resolution radiosounding (France, Espagne, RS/4M, KIT, L’Aquilla, Biscarosse)  dropsondes F20  reprocessed GPS and biais correction scheme adapted  reprocessed wind profilers  ground-based lidar (Candillargues, Minorque) + airborne  research aircraft measurements (F20, ATR, Dornier)  spanish radar  surface stations (Candillargues, …) …

25. LIDAR BASIL Quality control issues …

26. AROME_WMED_reana2 Work in progress: AROME_WMED cy38 run with Jb_1 and AROME_WMED_reana1 observational dataset for SOP1 (« control » run) evaluation of the coupling strategy preparation of the observations files, tests Expected agenda: Jb_2 : june 2014 Tests : summer / autumn 2014 Availability : mid-2015 (M45)

27. AROME_WMED_reana2 Questions, comments?

28. CY38