1. OLYMPEX An “integrated” GV experiment
Physical validation—Precipitation Measurement—Hydrology
November 2014-January 2015
PMM Science Team, Seattle, 2 November 2010

2. Contributors W. Peterson R. Cifelli T. Schneider D. Lettenmaier
N. Voison
N. Schraner
J. Lundquist
S. Medina
S. Brodzik

3. Annual average precipitation (PRISM)
The Olympic Peninsula is a “natural laboratory” for precipitation studies
Huge precipitation amounts
Annual average precipitation (PRISM)
Maximum

4. Detailed Climatology 5-yr MM5 Nov-Jan precipitation climatology (mm)
Only the climatology is verified by gauges--not individual events
Verified by gauges: Minder et al

5. Low 0ºC level RAIN at low elevations, SNOW at higher levels
Frequency of occurrence
0°C level (km)
Distribution of Nov-Jan 0°C level for flow that is onshore and moist at low levels (KUIL sounding) Mean 0°C level during storms = 1.5 km See this full range in individual storms!
See this in nearly every storm
Plot provided by Justin Minder

6. Persistent southwesterly flow during the winter
MOISTURE
“Atmospheric River”
NCEP long-term mean sea level pressure (mb) for winter (December to January) and topography

7. Persistent southwesterly flow during the winter
Monday morning

8. Persistent southwesterly flow during the winter
Monday morning

9. NWS WSR-88D radar to be in place ~2012

10. NOAA Mobile Atmospheric River Monitoring System
Westport, WA
since 2009
Data from vertically-pointing S-band radar
Signal-to-
noise ratio
Height
Radial
velocity
Height
Time

11. UW fine-scale observing network across a southwestern Olympics ridge
Detailed gauge network
Minder et al. 2008

12. Real-time Regional Environmental Modeling
(ESRL, UW)
Atmospheric forecast
UW/WRF
Ensemble mode
1.33 km resolution
Data assimilation
Also NOAA ESRL

13. Real-time Regional Environmental Modeling
(ESRL, UW)
Hydrologic prediction UW
ESRL
WRF drives hydro model, predicts streamflow for all these watersheds, example is fcst for quinault for different versions of the model

14. Proposed OLYMPEX layout

15. (Global Hawk?)
+NSF Facilities!!??
SNOTEL
RAWS
S-Band profiler
Atmos. River Observatory
NPOL
WSR-88D
Quillayute Rawinsonde

17. Physical validation of rain and snow retrievals
(i.e. are physical assumptions in GPM algorithms robust under different conditions)
Rain-snow transition on sloping terrain
Melting layer effect on algorithm performance
Different storm sectors—prefrontal, frontal, postfrontal
Different surface conditions—ocean, land, coast, hills, mountains

18. Rain and snow measurement (i. e
Rain and snow measurement (i.e. validation of its accuracy from satellite instruments mounted on aircraft)
Do precipitation measurements transition accurately from
ocean to land
land to mountains?
Do they handle the orographic enhancement of precipitation?
Can satellite rain measurements be downscaled accurately relative to the topography?

19. Hydrologic applications (i. e
Hydrologic applications (i.e. testing whether GPM data can improve streamflow forecasting in complex terrain)
Can satellite rain estimates over hills and mountains provide useful input to real-time hydrologic forecasting?
Does downscaling relative to topography improve hydrologic forecasting?
Can assimilation of satellite rain estimates into regional forecasting models improve hydrological forecasts?
Change operational to real time, change streamflow to hydrologic
(need to get interior streamflow points & snowpack as well as stream output
Assimilation is more physical

20. OLYMPEX is a fully integrated GV experiment
Summary
OLYMPEX is a fully integrated GV experiment
Physical validation
Rain and snow measurement
Assimilation of GPM measurements into hydrologic forecasts
Change operational to real time, change streamflow to hydrologic
(need to get interior streamflow points & snowpack as well as stream output
Assimilation is more physical
The climatology, terrain, and existing infrastructure have all the ingredients for hosting an integrated campaign

21. End This research was supported by
NSF grant ATM and NASA grant NNX10AH70G