1. Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisi with the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy First experiments with COSMO-ME-EPS

2. Outline The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA: Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) Towards the probabilistic forecast: the COSMO-ME EPS First runs with COSMO-ME EPS A sea state EPS: NETTUNO-EPS Future developments

3. 3 The operational CNMCA short-range ensemble prediction system is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach (Bonavita, Torrisi and Marcucci, 2008, 2010), for the data assimilation component (estimation of the initial conditions), and the COSMO regional model for the prognostic one. MAIN CHARACTERISTICS:  LETKF algorithm (Hunt et al. 2007)  6 hourly intermittent data assimilation cycle  Domain and resolution:  Mediterranean-European domain  0.09° grid spacing (~10 km) and 45 vertical levels  40+1 ensemble members  Observations: radiosonde ascents (RAOB), surface pressure observations from land and sea stations (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY), manual and automatic aircraft observations, atmospheric motion vectors from Meteosat, European wind profilers, scatterometer winds from METOP and AMSU-A radiances from METOP and NOAA satellites.  Lateral BC: IFS deterministic run perturbed using ECMWF-EPS  Surface perturbations: climatological perturbed sea surface temperature.  Model and sampling error: “Relaxation-to-prior spread” multiplicative inflation method according to Whitaker et al. 2010 and climatological additive noise. The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA

4. 7 km 40 v.l. 2.8 km 50 v.l. - compressible equations - parameterized convection - compressible equations - explicit convection CNMCA NWP SYSTEM since 1 June 11 The operational CNMCA short-range ensemble prediction system is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach (Bonavita, Torrisi and Marcucci, 2008, 2010), for the data assimilation component (estimation of the initial conditions), and the COSMO regional model for the prognostic one. LETKF analysis ensemble (40+1 members) every 6h using TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, VAD/Wind Profilers, AMDAR-ACAR-AIREP, MSG3-MET7 AMV, MetopA-B scatt. winds, NOAA/MetopA AMSUA radiances + Land SAF snow mask, IFS SST analysis once a day Local Area Modelling: COSMO EnKF DA COSMO-ME (7km) ITALIAN MET SERVICE 10 km 45 v.l. Control State Analysis

5. CNMCA LETKF DA SYSTEM Observations (±6h) IFS B.C. LETKF Analysis 000612 18120600 061218 HRM F.G. FG06 18 IFS Analysis Data Assimilation System 12 Blended Mean SST FG00FG12FG18 00 Additive Infl. 061218 00 SST Perturb. 00061218 BC Pert. EPS 40 members 0.09° grid spacing 40 vert. lev. Pre-operational from Dec 2010. Operational from 1 June 2011

6. The operational forecast up to 48 hours is done using the deterministic member time BG Forecasts time Initial conditions BG Forecasts Initial conditions Analysis Step Forecast Step time Initial conditionsBG Forecasts Analysis Step BG Forecast Step ENS MEAN CONTROL RUN Actually only the assimilation is based on the ensemble technique The 40 + 1 forecast members are run up to 9 hours in order to produce the BG ensemble for the next analysis step The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA

7. 7 A first implementation of COSMO-ME EPS has being tested at CNMCA in the framework of MYWAVE project (  short range sea state EPS based on COSMO-ME EPS: NETTUNO EPS) The main characteristics of COSMO-ME EPS are:  Domain and resolution: COSMO model is integrated on the same domain of the CNMCA-LETKF system.  IC and BC: initial conditions are derived from the CNMCA-LETKF system. Lateral boundaries conditions are from IFS deterministic run perturbed using ECMWF-EPS.  Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies will be evaluated.  Forecast range: the 40+1 COSMO forecast members are running up to 48 hours in order to produce the wind forecast to be given as input to the NETTUNO system at 00 UTC. BG IC BG Forecasts Analysis Step BG Forecast Step Analysis Step time Toward a probabilistic forecast system: the COSMO-ME EPS The implementation of a short range EPS based on COSMO-ME is straightforward “extending” the forecast members integration

8. 27 nov 2012 00 UTC First run with COSMO-ME EPS 40 members with 0.09° grid spacing,  26km (  18hPa) model top, 45 vertical levels, IC from CNMCA LETKF, BC from deterministic IFS perturbed by ECMWF EPS

9. +18-24+24-30+30-36+36-42 CONTROL RUN  EPS NOSP MEAN  EPS NOSP PROB20  27 nov 2012 COSMO-ME EPS

10. +18-24+24-30+30-36+36-42 CONTROL RUN  EPS MEAN  EPS PROB20  27 nov 2012 COSMO-ME EPS with stochastics physics

11. 28 nov 2012 07:45 UTC FORECAST 30-36h EPS MEAN EPS MEAN NOSP EPS PROB20 EPS NOSP PROB20 COSMO-ME EPS with and without stochastics physics

12. 12 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS part of MYWAVE project NETTUNO is a high resolution local scale wave forecast system operational in the Mediterranean Sea based on the COSMO-ME and WAM models (In cooperation with ISMAR-CNR of Venice) The sea state probabilistic forecast is obtained driving the wave model using the hourly COSMO-ME EPS wind forecast members The NETTUNO-EPS consists of 40+1 members, that are integrated at 00 UTC up to 48 hour forecast in the Mediterranean basin

13. 13 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 Time evolution of the ensemble mean NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS ens mean 22 may 2013

14. 14 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Time evolution of the ensemble spread ens spread

15. 15 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS ens mean 06 ens mean 12 ens spread 06 ens spread 12

16. 16 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 Confronto media-deviazione standard NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS ens mean 18 ens mean 24 ens spread 18 ens spread 24

17. 17 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 Confronto media-deviazione standard NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS ens mean 30 ens mean 36 ens spread 30 ens spread 36

18. 18 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 Confronto media-deviazione standard NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS ens mean 42 ens mean 48 ens spread 42 ens spread 48

19. Future Developments Calibration/tuning of the COSMO-ME EPS Evaluation of stochastic physics impact over a long period Validation of the NETTUNO-EPS Soil moisture perturbation

20. Thanks for your attention!