A Food System is a set of dynamic interactions between and within the human and biogeophysical environments which result in the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food. (definition based on FAO viewpoint) should involve interactions designed to provide food security. operate through connections between related determinants operating in one or more major components. fail to deliver food security when determinants, and/or the links between them, are disrupted by GEC or other stresses. Includes social AND environmental components

Processing & packaging food Distribution & retailing food Generally food systems comprise a number of human activities involved in….. Producing food Processing & packaging food Distribution & retailing food Consuming food

is the principal objective of food systems Food Security is the principal objective of food systems exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (definition from the World Food Summit) emphasizes access for individuals, households, communities to food. is an integrated concept. So, GECAFS is interested in how GEC is going to affect food security. This is a pretty standard definition that I think most people are probably comfortable with. Though someone did comment that this is a person-centered definition, not a systems centered definition and since we are linking food security and GEC through the framework of the food SYSTEM that maybe we would want to include another definition which draws from systems theory (i.e., involving resilience, etc.) While much of the work in global change focuses on the production side, GECAFS wants to emphasize that when thinking of food security, it is not only the availability of food, but having physical (and sociocultural) access to food is a primary component of the food system.

Components of Food Security & Key Elements FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety Affordability Allocation Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to Food System ACTIVITIES Other societal goals Income Employment Wealth Social & political capital Human capital Infrastructure Peace Insurance Food Security Environmental Security / Natural Capital Ecosystems stocks, flows Ecosystem services Access to NC assured FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety Affordability Allocation Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: resource inputs, farmers, raw materials Processing & packaging food Distribution & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, consumption

Food security determinants Food Access Determinant Bangladesh Sensitive to GEC?   Affordability household incomes Generally low Floods, droughts proportion of food purchased 60% self-sufficient in rice Increases if own production fails Policy support? Conducive govt. policy but inadequate institutional support No but should be Allocation Control over own production sharecroppers get small share no Degree of market influence market-driven ?? Government intervention re markets Inadequate Market efficiency (storage capacity, integration…) low or poor No or gets worse Preference Preferred carbohydrate Rice dominates culturally Have secondary foods in disasters preferred protein Fish but expensive Price up or down Consumption patterns changing towards more commercially processed food No ?? Next step is to assess sensitivity of these key determinants to GEC.

Vulnerability Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover Function of exposure to hazards AND social dimensions of coping capacity (internal and external) Coping capacity includes access to assets, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures Vulnerability is dynamic and differential (related to equity)

GECAFS perspective: MULTIPLE stressors produce vulnerabilities that are multi-dimensional Currency Fluctuations Economic Recession Water Pollution FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Floods, Droughts Political Unrest FOOD AVAILABILITY HIV-AIDS War Climate Change Change in Trading Agreements

Drivers, Activities and Outcomes relevant to Developing Scenarios for analysing interactions between GEC and Food Systems Societal Interests that relate to Food Systems Food Security Environmental Security Other Securities Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demography Economics Socio-political context Cultural context Science & Technology Food System OUTCOMES contributing to: Interactions among DRIVERS Naturally- induced drivers e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Other societal interests Food Security Environmental Security / Natural Capital: GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nutrient availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level Food System ACTIVITIES

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY Exposure to GEC GECAFS view of vulnerability – function of adaptive capacity and resilience SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc.

Geographical And Socio-economic Characteristics of SIDS Which Increases Vulnerability To Climate Change Narrow economic base Traditional exports and tourism Low productivity and production Plantation and small rain-fed agriculture Economic dependence on larger countries for markets and investments Imports; loss of trade preferences/ competitiveness; changes in trade policies; declining prices Increased pressure on natural resource base Increased incidence of pockets of poverty Fragile coastal systems Growing non-healthy food choices

Adaptation ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Considered as opposite of vulnerability Emphasis on flexibility and learning ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Policy and institutional To better cope and recover Proactive or reactive

Increasing adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerability to stressors Adaptive strategy Water quantity stress Few drought tolerant crops with market value Increase groundwater? Open markets for new crops? Low human capital as result of HIV/AIDS Barrier to institutional reform and learning Educate youth? Make drug treatment cheaper? Low political integration Barrier to regional trade and economic growth SADC and NEPAD?