1. Climate Change and Food Security
in the Caribbean
Using scenario analyses for decision support
Adrian Trotman
Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (Ag)
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

2. State of agriculture and food in the Caribbean
Agriculture’s contribution to the economies of CARICOM states have been on the decline since the 1970s
Net agricultural trade moved from being a surplus of US$2.9 billion in 1988 to a deficit of US$2.2 billion in 2004 (CARICOM donor conference draft document 2007)
Losses in preferential markets for traditional crops in Europe
Except for Guyana and Belize, CARICOM states became net importers of food
The Jagdeo Initiative, seeks to breathe new life into the agriculture and related sectors

3. Recent Climate-related Impacts
Flooding in Guyana in affected 37 % of the population, 34 deaths, approximately US$55 million in damage to the agricultural sector. A similar, but smaller-scale event the following year resulted in total losses to the sector of US$22.5 million (ECLAC 2005, ECLAC 2006).
In Grenada, damage to the agricultural sector by Hurricane Ivan (2004) totalled almost US$40 million. Damage to the nutmeg sub-sector concern for 30,720 ‘employees’ (OECS 2004). Spice industry set back 10 years.
An intense drought event in caused US$6 million in crop losses Jamaica (Jamaica Information Service, Ministry of Finance 2007).
Coral reef deterioration, fish kills

4. Projected Climate Change
90% chance that temperatures will rise across the Caribbean - increase in the annual temperature could be in the range of 2 to 2.5oC
likely (66%) that sea levels will rise in the Caribbean during this century
rainfall is likely (66%) to decrease in the Greater Antilles (particularly in June & August) – however, projected decrease in annual precipitation in the region of 5 to 15% in Caribbean basin
WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED MORE OFTEN

5. highlighting CARICOM members
The Caribbean Region
highlighting CARICOM members

6. Key Caribbean climate and other GEC issues,
food security policy priorities
and development goals
Caribbean
Initial effort in identifying which S/holders are relevant and important: different in each region
Three regional examples of stakeholder concerns about GEC; also list of food policy goals (note that may not be connected).
Issues
Increasing extreme events
Changes in sea currents & level
‘Ridge-to-Reef’ impacts of land degradation
Key Policy Goals
Increasing food self-sufficiency
Improving trade policies & competitiveness
Implementing CSM and the CSME
Example Stakeholders
National ag, env & tourism ministries
Regional IGOs (CARICOM, IICA)
Regional research bodies
(FAO, CCCCC, CIMH, UWI, CARDI)

7. Analysing Food Systems in context of drivers and feedbacks
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality, GHGs
GEC DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents
& salinity, Sea level
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing
Processing & Packaging
Distributing & Retailing
Consuming
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Food System OUTCOMES
Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental
Security, and other Societal Interests
DRIVERS’ Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
Science & Technology
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Social
Welfare
Food
Availability
Environ Capital
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion
Source: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. (2006) A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.

8. GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios
Funded by ICSU / UNESCO / US State Dept
3 main starting issues
Extreme weather, climate, sea level
Land use esp. “ridge-to-reef”
Regional governance & CSME
Preferential trade

9. GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios
Who was involved?
~30 people; 2 workshops & writing tasks over 6 months
Social and natural scientists from regional research institutions (e.g. UWI, CIMH)
Social and natural scientists from national research institutions (e.g. universities, national labs)
Policy-makers from regional agencies (e.g. CARICOM, IICA)
Policy-makers from national agencies (e.g. Min of Ag)
International agencies (e.g. FAO, UNEP)
GECAFS scenarios group

10. Environmental Management
GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
World Development
Globalization Regionalization
Global Orchestration
Order from Strength
Proactive Reactive
Environmental Management
TechnoGarden
Adapting Mosaic
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

11. Main Climate-related Drivers
Same across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios
Global Caribbean
Caribbean Order from Strength
Caribbean TechnoGarden
Caribbean Adapting Mosaic
Temperature Mean
Global: Increase by 1.5 to 2.0 Degree Celsius Caribbean: Increase of 1.0 to 1.5 Degree Celsius
Rainfall Mean / Variability
Global: Increase globally, but diverse spatial patterns Caribbean: Large uncertainty (potential: decrease in average, but increase in intensity)
Hurricanes, Tropical depressions
Global: Increase with increase sea temperature (maybe) Caribbean: Uncertainty (potential: increase in frequency)
Sea level
Global: Increase by 25 to 30 cm Caribbean: Increase by 25 to 30 cm -> more storm surges, salt-water intrusion
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

12. Main Socioeconomic Drivers
Differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios
Population growth & fertility rates
Life expectancy & Age structure
Migration (rural-urban)
Economic Growth
Equity
Financial flows
Unemployment
Regional Cooperation
Investments into agri science & technology
Investments into human capital
Dominant agricultural food policy
Subsidies
Import / Export Regulations & Focus
(Relative) Price of food
Transport cost
Tourism
Kind of Governance, Political Agendas
Emergence of new markets (India, China; Green markets)
US - Cuba Situation
Security situation
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

13. Other GEC Drivers
Consequently differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios
(example for land use change)
Global Caribbean
Caribbean Order from Strength
Caribbean TechnoGarden
Caribbean Adapting Mosaic
Land Use Change
High land use intensity plus abandoned marginal areas
Agriculture not for staple food, but niche markets
New urban areas on ‘good’ agricultural areas
Some ‘land zoning’
At first like GC scenario, then shift, leads to mix
Marginal land to provide basic food needs
Use of good land for cash-crop areas, follow profits / export
Specialized agriculture for niche markets
Land use highly intensive, very productive agriculture
Proactive land management
More ‘integrated’ agriculture, more use of current marginal.
More small-scale, yet intensive, production of niche products
Current marginal lands will be brought into production
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

14. Analysis of Food Security Outcomes
Components & Elements (reminder)
Food Security
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
Affordability
Allocation
Preference
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Food Safety
AVAILABILITY
Production
Distribution
Exchange
Food Systems comprise a number of activities related to food production and preservation; food processing and packaging; food distribution and retail; and food consumption. In addition to underpinning food security, these activities give rise to a number of other outcomes many of which contribute to and influence other societal goals such as employment, health and social and environmental conditions.

15. Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [1]
Developments described per scenario for each
Food Security element (example for Food Access component)
Food Access
Global Caribbean
Caribbean Order from Strength
Caribbean TechnoGarden
Caribbean Adapting Mosaic
Affordability
Lower food prices
Income increase
Fish price goes up, due to limited availability
Lower economic growth, less income
increase in food prices, also of staple food GEC shocks
Incomes increase
Different national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over time
Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases
Allocation
etc…
Preference
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

16. Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [2]
Developments systematically assessed per scenario for each
Food Security element (example for Food Access component)
Food Access
Global Caribbean
Caribbean Order from Strength
Caribbean TechnoGarden
Caribbean Adapting Mosaic
Affordability + -- -
Lower food prices (+) Income increase (+)
Fish price goes up, due to limited availability (-)
Lower economic growth, less income (--)
Increase in food prices, also of staple food (--) GEC shocks (-)
Incomes increase (+)
Different national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over time (-)
Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases (-)
Allocation O
Preference
+ / -
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

17. Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [3]
Assessments plotted based on FS concepts
per scenario
Global Caribbean
Production ++
Food Safety
Increase +
Distribution
Caribbean Order From Strength _
Social Value
_ _
Decrease
Inter-Regional Exchange
Caribbean TechnoGarden
Intra-Caribbean Exchange
Nutritional Value
Caribbean Adapting Mosaic
Preference
Affordability
Allocation
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

18. GECAFS Scenarios Approach
key outcomes
raises awareness of GEC with policy-makers and other stakeholders
raises awareness of policy issues and process with GEC researchers
integrates information from different fields to explore possible developments
systematically structures debate relating to environmental issues and food security
builds science-policy regional “team” based on shared vision, understanding and trust
tests downscaling methods
will be extended to other regions under GEF proposal (in prep)