1. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Scenario Development and Analysis Thomas Henrichs Scenarios Research Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

2. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Background The What and the Why

3. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 The Unknown As we know, There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know There are known unknowns. That is to say We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns. The ones we don't know we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld (12. Feb 2003, DOD Press Conference)

4. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Background How to address uncertainty about future development? The way we address uncertainty depends on: - what we know about causalities in a system, and - the level of (un)certainty about future driving forces. Projections Speculation Uncertainty Causality highlow unknown known Scenarios Facts Source: Based on EEA (2005)

5. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Background What are Scenarios? Scenario development and analysis is an approach to have a structured discussions / assessment of an uncertain future. Scenarios are plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop, based on an internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships. Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts or truth machines! Source: various

6. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Background Why develop and analyse scenarios? Education / Public Information to educate and teach students, citizens, pupils to raise awareness of policy-makers, stakeholders Science / Research to integrate information from different fields to explore possible developments Strategic Planning / Decision Support to gather different views and to identify issues to frame strategic issues, to identify alternatives to support policy measure development

7. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Approach How - Conceptual & Methodological Research

8. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Conceptual & Methodological Research How to develop and analyse scenarios? Aim: A structured discussion about an uncertain future. Depends on the goals of the scenario exercise! Using qualitative (e.g. participation) or quantitative approaches (e.g. modelling) or a combinition of both: Each scenario exercise needs tailor-made approaches. Scenarios should be plausible, internally consistent, combine scientific rigour with creativity.

9. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Conceptual & Methodological Research Scenario Development Concepts Typically, scenarios consist of: Description of the current state. Driving Forces. Description of step-wise changes. An image of the future. PRESENT Choices Drivers FUTURE Source: European Environment Agency 2002 IPCC UNEP WWV MA Examples in global assessments:

10. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Conceptual & Methodological Research Methods for linking scenarios across geographical scales Aim: To provide global context and use of available information. Source: GECAFS Report 2 (2006) IPCC UNEP WWV MA Examples in global assessments:

11. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Conceptual & Methodological Research A Short Review of Global Scenarios (GECAFS Working Paper 1) Source: GECAFS Working Paper 1 (2006) Do existing global scenarios address food system qualitatively (  ) or quantitatively ()? IPCC/SRESGEO-3MAGSGIFPRI 2020FAO 2030 Producing  i.e. lucc    Processing / Packaging Distribution / Retailing  Consuming     Production  i.e. lucc    Distribution indirect Exchange  trade trade Affordability   Allocation  market marketindirect Preference  Nutritional Value   Social Value Food Safety  Activities Food Security Outcomes

12. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Example GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios

13. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Background Source: GECAFS Report 2 (2006) Issues: GEC, socio-economic developments and food systems Prototype scenarios developed with ICSU/UNESCO funding based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios Developed together with a group of 20 regional experts in two workshops in Jamaica (Sep05) and Trinidad & Tobago (Nov06)

14. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Based on the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

15. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Conceptual Framework for Food Systems Scenarios Source: www.gecafs.org Activities Food Security Outcomes Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing & Packaging Distributing & Retailing Consuming Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demography, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental Security, and other societal interests Food Availability Food Utilisation Food Access Environm. Security Social Interests DRIVERS Interactions GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity,Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Socio-economic feedbacks Environmental feedbacks

16. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Driving Forces, Global Environmental Change, Food Systems Identify socio-economic drivers, and describe assumptions in scenarios Source: Internal GECAFS documents, GECAFS Report 2 (2006) Global CaribbeanCaribbean Order from Strength Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Climate Change (Temperature) Global: Increase by 1.5 to 2.0 Degree Celsius Caribbean: Increase of 1.0 to 1.5 Degree Celsius Land Use ChangeHigh land use intensity plus...... At first like GC scenario, then...... Specialized agriculture...... More ‘integrated’ agriculture,...... Low, but steady (maybe initial drop) Relatively highRelatively lowRelatively highEconomic Growth Some regional cooperation only,... CSME works! More regional cooperation... At first more cooperation, breakdown in... Increased cooperation in economic... Regional Cooperation Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Order from Strength Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Affordability +--+- Lower food prices (+),Income increase (+) Fish price goes up, due to limited availability (-) Less income (--) Increase in food prices, also of staple food (--) GEC shocks (-) More income (+) Different national situations; dampened effect over time (-) Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases (-) Draft regional scenario storylines Identify and assess qualitatively the global environmental change drivers Assess qualitatively the implications for food system activities outcomes

17. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Food security diagrammes for the scenarios Source: GECAFS Report 2 (2006) Production Distribution Inter-Regional Exchange Intra-Caribbean Exchange Affordability Allocation Preference Food Safety Increase Decrease Nutritional Value Social Value Global Caribbean Caribbean Order From Strength Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Food security diagrammes plotted based on food system outcome discussions: ++ + 0 _ _

18. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Indicative comparison of GEC concerns in scenarios Based on: 1) Assumed developments related to GEC in the Caribbean 2) Assumed consequences related to GEC in the Caribbean 3) Resulting developments related to food systems Source: GECAFS Report 2 (2006) ◄ Less Concern More Concern ►

19. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Discussion Some Open Questions for IGP GECAFS Scenario Research

20. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Discussion Open Questions for IGP GECAFS Scenario Research Rationale: Why develop and analyse GECAFS IGP scenarios? Goals: What are goals of a GECAFS IGP Scenarios exercise? Content: What are the main focus / key issues? Scale: Link global and regional (and maybe local) scenarios? Approach: Qualitative or Quantitative methods? Or both? Participants: Who needs to be involved in scenario development? Outcomes: How use scenarios? And how communicate them?

21. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Thank you