What is Global Environmental Change? Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality For example changes in: Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

Some examples of human activities leading to GEC Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption Urbanisation Land reclamation Agricultural intensification Freshwater extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste production

How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions? Fundamental Questions

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. GECAFS Goal

What is Food Security? A state or condition when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (definition from the World Food Summit, 1996)

Crop Stands Production Systems Food Systems Farming Systems Crop Productivity Food Production Food Security Key questions How will GEC affect crop yield? How will GEC affect farm & regional production? How will GEC affect food security? Key Research Issues Relations to soil N and water Micronutrients Stand establishment Losses to weeds Mechanistic coupling of pests and diseases Simulation of quality Linking “sole crop” models Farm-level databases including management variables Inclusion of other crops, livestock & fisheries, etc Using model outputs to analyse system performance Food Systems and vulnerability concepts Regional-level scenarios Integrated socioeconomic- biophysical models Feedbacks of management scenarios to socioeconomic and environmental conditions Change of research scope from agronomy

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY Exposure to GEC

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC Exposure to GEC

I. Conceptual & methodological research on generic topics based on science and policy issues identified in regional projects. GECAFS Research Approaches II. Policy-relevant research at regional-level on impacts, adaptation and feedbacks based on improved conceptual understanding and methods. Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation Decision Support Indo-Gangetic Plain Caribbean Southern Africa Others? Food Systems Concepts Vulnerability Concepts Scenario Construction Decision Support

Food Systems, to improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and GEC Vulnerability, to integrate social and natural science concepts of the vulnerability of food systems to GEC Scenarios, to construct plausible futures of socioeconomic and environmental conditions for food system analyses Decision Support, to improve dialogue between scientists and policy-makers on the interactions between food security and environment Research Approaches 1 conceptual & methodological research

CaribbeanIndo-Gangetic Plain Southern Africa Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Trade policies and competitiveness Exporting quality produce & processed products Poverty in rural communities Main GEC Issues Climate variability & extreme events Water availability Land degradation Sea currents & level Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and snow melt Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling GHG emissions Key Policy Issues Increased agric. production Limiting env. degradation Improved socioecon. conditions Reduced labour migration Main GEC Issues Climate variability & ENSO Climate mean values Water availability & quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Regional integration and trade Rural infrastructure and market access Disaster response and “safety nets” Research Approaches 2 conceptual and methodological research integrated with regional studies

GECAFS Key Points Food systems, not only food production or agriculture GEC, not just climate change GEC in the context of socioeconomic change, not in isolation Management and policy options, not predictions Participatory decision making, not just research outputs Regional scale, not global or household/plot Interdisciplinary, not disciplinary networks