1. Project Duration: 3 years
Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina
Project Coordinator: Dr. Carlos Gay, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México DF
Project Duration: 3 years

2. Focusing on current adaptation and vulnerability
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of institutional change in Mexico and Argentina affecting the vulnerabilities of different types of farm systems and their capacities to adapt to climatic variability and change?
Focusing on current adaptation and vulnerability
Goal of identifying institutional constraints to adaptation
AIACC-LA29

3. Link between Institutional Change and Adaptation
Represents an “impact” to farmers: affects stability of livelihoods through time
Circumscribes resource use and access, decision flexibility
In context of Neoliberalism, markets play critical roles in opportunities and constraints for adaptation
Institutions may facilitate adaptation via better use of climate information among other options
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4. Flexibility, Stability,
Climate information
Impacts
Exposure
Perceptions, impacts
knowledge }
Climate
Policy, Markets
Flexibility, Stability,
Resource Access } f
Vulnerability
Macro-level
Farm-level
Opportunities/ Constraints
Adaptation Capacity
Recommendations to facilitate adaptation
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5. RESEARCH SITES Small-scale export: Veracruz and Córdoba
Large-scale diversified export: Tamaulipas and Córdoba
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6. Córdoba Province Argentina
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7. Climate Analysis Drivers of regional and local variability
Trends in temperature, precipitation
Extreme events
Generation of climate change scenarios
Downscaling to required spatial scale of analysis
Sensitivity of crops and agroecosystem
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8. Institutional Analysis methods
Review of policy and program documents
Analysis of statistical data at for trends and access to key services and resources (1980 – 2002)
Trends in relevant output and input prices
Structured interviews with stakeholders
Stakeholder workshops
Stakeholder climate information needs and use
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9. Farm Level Analysis methods
Focus groups
Participatory Rural Appraisal
Impact matrix
In-depth interviews
Analysis of changes in livelihood strategies
Household livelihood surveys
AIACC-LA29

10. Farm-level Analysis adaptative capacity
Focused on three attributes of adaptation:
Flexibility
Diversity of agricultural system (+)
Livelihood/Income diversity (+)
Resource base (endowments) (-/+)
Tendencies and changes in the above
Stability
Exposure to/ impact of market risk (-)
Exposure to/ impact of climatic risk (-)
Degree of variability/change in rural economy (-)
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11. Farm Level Analysis adaptive capacity
Resource Access
Access to financial resources (credit) (+)
Participation in support programs (+)
Participation in social programs (+/-)
Irrigation access(+)
Social organization and networks (+)
Market access (-/+)
Tendencies and changes in the above
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12. AIACC-LA29

13. Methods still under consideration…
Establishing coping range and thresholds for each case study
Application of “option theory” to understand decisions and risk perception
Scenario construction (bottom-up storylines)
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