ALLIED FORCES NORTH EUROPE Operational Analysis Support to a Combined Joint Headquarters on a Crisis Response Operation
ALLIED EFFORT 01 CJTF and CJFCC HQ in Wroclaw/ Poland
CJTF Headquarters CJ 1 PERS CJ 2 INTEL CJ 3 OPS CJ 5 PLANS CJ 6 CIS CJ 9 CIMIC CJ 4 LOG Command Group HQ SupportCIS Support CJ 8 BUDFIN CJ ENGINEER SPECIALSTAFF PRIMARYSTAFF SUPPORT MJLC LEGADPOLAD LIAISON PIO OA
CJTF HQ OA Composition Complement –3 Staff Officer/Civilian Analyst –OA Trained with Experience –Augmentees Implementation –RHQ AFNORTH Special Staff –Analyst from NC3A –Limited Reach-back
OA Responsibilities Participates in HQ Processes Provides OA Support to HQ Staff Uses OA Methods to Provide Insights, Results and Recommendations Imports or Develops Tools Liaises with OA in HQs and Outside Identifies long-term theatre-wide issues for further analysis
OA in the Decision Cycle 1400 COM CJTF Prep Meeting 1630 COM CJTF VTC 1000 COS VTC 0830 Daily Staff Brief 0930 JCB 1030 JOPG 1200 DARB 1500 SACEUR VTC 1330 CLC 1400 CICOM 1300 IOWG 1300 DOS/CO Coord Mtg Note 1 Note Situational Awareness COM CJTF HQ Conf (Following the VTC) 0645 CG Situational Awareness 2000 JCB WG 0100 JCB WG
Analysis Supporting Operational Planning –Situation Analysis –Decision Support –Course of Action Development and Comparison –Risk Assessment Modelling Impact of Refugee Movements Monitoring Compliance …
Current Land Situation Showing ZOS Forces and Refugee Camps
Current Land Situation Showing Force Potential of Tanks
Decision Support HQ Location Criteria Political –evenhandedness, perception Liaison (C2 Arrangements) –UNHR, CORAL, OPAL, Subordinate, IO,… Infrastructure –Transportation, HNS, Buildings, Access... –COMMS, Media Security Handover
Operational Risk CORAL vs GFOR Air Forces
Comparison of Force Strength
Ground Force Attrition with and without Contribution of Air
Impact of Refugee Movements on GFOR LOC
Non-compliance incidents
NUMBER DVD TIME OF4s in one Room Meetings without output Morale Availability of warm water Exercise Artificialities
Lessons Identified Exercise artificialities and data collection caused challenges. OA Team composition needs adjusting –Nucleus staff member, Admin, Skills OA Toolkit needs expanding –Challenge is to make it robust but manageable. Model development needs to be encouraged –Uncertainties during planning –Criteria for success in CRO –Joint aggregation and syncronization –Flexibile and responsive!
Conclusion Groundwork for OA in CJTF HQ laid Team-building achieved in HQ and analysis community HQ supported with analysis Skills and models tested against real world problems and operational timelines Valuable experience gained