1. Crisis Action Planning (CAP) and The Commander’s Estimate Joint Pub 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations Joint Pup 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance & Procedures PROPERTIES OF CAP Series of Logical Steps Recognizes a Problem Develops Potential Solutions Allows Preparation / Execution of Plans and Orders REFERENCES Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)

2. Crisis Action Planning Process ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopmentIICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessmentIVCOASelectionIVCOASelection VI Execution VI Execution CAPcrisis action planning COAcourse of action CAPcrisis action planning COAcourse of action Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment Execution IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopmentVExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning PlanningPlanning Form CTF HQ Form CTF HQCAPCAP Warning Order Commander’s Estimate MNF OPORD

3. CRISIS ACTION PLANNING Phase I: Situation Development CRISISCRISIS VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment COMMANDER’SASSESSMENT SUPPORTED STRATEGIC COMMANDER (CINC) NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES Nature of Crisis Forces Available Deployment Timeline Major Constraints Actions being Taken Preliminary COAs

4. CRISIS ACTION PLANNING Phase II: Crisis Assessment Considers: National Interests National Objectives Crisis Determination Considers: National Interests National Objectives Crisis Determination VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES SUPPORTED STRATEGIC COMMANDER (CINC) WARNING ORDER

5. CRISIS ACTION PLANNING Phase III: COA Development COMMANDER’SESTIMATE WARNING ORDER ACTIVATION / WARNING ORDER NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES CTF VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) COMMANDER’SESTIMATE

6. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE MISSION MISSION SITUATION AND COURSES SITUATION AND COURSES OF ACTION (COA) OF ACTION (COA) ANALYSIS OF OPPOSING COAs ANALYSIS OF OPPOSING COAs COMPARISON OF COAs COMPARISON OF COAs RECOMMENDED COA RECOMMENDED COA REMARKS REMARKS

7. VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 6 Paragraphs

8. VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION ACTIONS ANALYSE THE MISSION RESTATE THE MISSION LIST ESSENTIAL TASKS GOAL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Paragraph I – Mission

9. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Paragraph II – Situation and COAs VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION Considerations Affecting Possible COA’s Characteristics of the Operations Area Factors that Effect the Crisis ASSUMPTIONS Threat and Crisis Factors Most Probable Most Dangerous Courses of Action WHAT Type of Action WHEN the Action Begins WHERE the Action Takes Place WHY (Commander’s Intent) HOW (Method of Force Employment) Limit Information to Significant Factors

10. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Paragraph III – COA Analysis VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION Detailed Description of War- Gaming of Courses of Action Address Friendly Actions and Consequences to Those Actions for each COA Illustrates the Task Force Commander’s Consideration of Most Probable and Most Dangerous Factors for Each COA

11. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Paragraph IV – COA Comparison VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION List Strengths and Weaknesses of Each COA Highlight Differences in Strengths for each COA Pay Particular Attention to Commander’s Intent and Guidance Comparison Criteria

12. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Paragraph V – Recommended COA VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION Coalition / Combined Task Force (CTF) Commander’s Recommendation for Course of Action May Provide Rationale Used by Commander in the Decision Process

13. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Paragraph VI – Remarks VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION Requests for Additional Forces Recommended Changes to the Rules of Engagement Caveats to Courses of Action if there are Changes to the Situation Third Party Intervention Impact of Possible Events Impending Refugee Problem

14. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Key Points and Summary VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment Paragraph VI Remarks Remarks Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph V Recommended COA Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph IV COA Comparison Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph II Situation and COAs Paragraph I MISSION MISSION KEY POINTS Use Mission Statement to Clarify and Narrow Mission to Operational Level Concentrate on Recent Events (Avoid Historical Discussions) Make All Courses of Action Operationally Different From Each Other SUMMARY Submitted by the Task Force Commander in Response to the Warning Order Reflects Task Force Commander’s Analysis of Possible Courses of Action Recommends a Best Course of Action in Response to a Crisis Situation

15. CRISIS ACTION PLANNING Phase IV: COA Selection CTF COAs Considered: Military Military Diplomatic Diplomatic Economic Economic Informational Informational NCA SELECTS COA COAs Considered: Military Military Diplomatic Diplomatic Economic Economic Informational Informational NCA SELECTS COA VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES Task Force Actions: Prepare Ops Plans Prepare Ops Plans Force Protection Force Protection Refine Estimates Refine Estimates Resolve Shortfalls Resolve Shortfalls Task Force Actions: Prepare Ops Plans Prepare Ops Plans Force Protection Force Protection Refine Estimates Refine Estimates Resolve Shortfalls Resolve Shortfalls SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) PLANNING ORDER

16. CRISIS ACTION PLANNING Phase V: Execution Planning CTF VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES Task Force Focus: Forces Available Forces Available Force Sustainment Force Sustainment Strategic Mobility Strategic Mobility Timeline Timeline Shortfalls Shortfalls Refine Ops Plan Refine Ops Plan Until EXORD Until EXORD Task Force Focus: Forces Available Forces Available Force Sustainment Force Sustainment Strategic Mobility Strategic Mobility Timeline Timeline Shortfalls Shortfalls Refine Ops Plan Refine Ops Plan Until EXORD Until EXORD SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) ALERT ORDER

17. CRISIS ACTION PLANNING Phase VI: Execution CTF VIExecutionVIExecution VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning IVCOASelectionIVCOASelection IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES Execute Ops Plans Execute SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) EXECUTION ORDER CRISISCRISIS Reporting

18. Key Points of Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Develop, Analyze, Select and Implement a Military Course of Action THE CRISIS: CAP FEATURES: WHY CAP:  Threat to National / Regional Interest  May Require a Military Response  Facilitates Rapid Exchange of Information  Requires Collaborative AND Concurrent Planning  Time Constraints Prevent Deliberate Planning  No Existing Operation Plan Applies  Develops Rapidly

19. Crisis Action Planning Summary Monitor Situation Monitor Situation Gather Information Gather Information Take Appropriate Actions Take Appropriate Actions Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Phase V Phase VI Increased Information Gathering Increased Information Gathering Review of Options Review of Options NCA Crisis Decision NCA Crisis Decision Strategic Command refines and presents COAs Strategic Command refines and presents COAs NCA COA decision NCA COA decision Deployment plan completed Deployment plan completed Operations Order developed Operations Order developed Force preparation Force preparation Execute OPORDs Execute OPORDs Reporting Reporting Transition / Redeploy Transition / Redeploy Termination / Resolution Termination / Resolution COAs developed COAs developed major forces major forces support support COAs evaluated COAs evaluated Situation Developmen t Crisis Assessment COA Development COA Selection Execution Planning ExecutionExecution CRISIS Commander’s Assessment Warning Order Commander’s Estimate Execution Order Planning Order Alert Order

20. Questions?