Missouri River Basin Forecast Brian Anderson Wyoming Area Office Meeting, January 20, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Missouri River Basin Forecast Brian Anderson Wyoming Area Office Meeting, January 20, 2010

Forecast Use the most recent 30 year data for statistical regression Use average future rainfall

Snotel Stations Used For Buffalo Bill Snowmelt Runoff Forecast

Snow Water Equivalent as of Jan 6, 2010

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE Natural Resources Conservation Service - Monday MORNING SNOW REPORT (No. 11) January 4, 2010 DRAINAGE BASIN1/4/201012/28/200912/21/20091/4/200912/28/2008 SNAKE RIVER UPPER YELLOWSTONE WIND RIVER BIGHORN BASIN SHOSHONE POWDER - TONGUE BELLE FOURCHE UPPER NORTH PLATTE LOWER N PLATTE,SWT LITTLE SNAKE RIVER UPPER GREEN RIVER LOWER GREEN RIVER UPPER BEAR RIVER Weighted State Average

Forecast Input Data The forecast program for Buffalo Bill was developed about 15 years ago and uses a multiple linear correlation routine to determine a best fit solution.

Forecast Output

Water Year April-July Inflow (acre-feet) , , , ??? Average = 659,700 Basin above Buffalo Bill Reservoir Snow Water Equivalent

Precipitation Outlook - Apr, May, June 2010

Buffalo Bill Reservoir Water Supply Forecast January 1 Forecast of April – July Snowmelt Runoff

Water Year JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune Actual Inflow ,000540,000550, , , ,000430,000400,000375,000400,000360,000374, , ,000500,000550,000530,000552, ,000550, ,000560,000540,000667, ,000530, ,000350,000400,000387, ,000450,000425,000400, ,000513, ,000650, ,000500,000470,000545, , ,000425, ,000426, , ,000720,000875,000955, ,000700,000650,000700,000750,000720,000954,200 Buffalo Bill Reservoir Forecasted April-July Inflow (acre-feet) The April forecast has been within 10% of actual inflow in 6 of the past 10 years.

Annual average inches 2009 cumulative total 16.45

Operation Minimum, Maximum and Expected

Buffalo Bill Dam, Visitor Center, & Shoshone Powerplant