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44 th Annual Mid-Pacific Region 2011 Water Users Conference Water Supply Outlook Reno, Nevada January 26-28, 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "44 th Annual Mid-Pacific Region 2011 Water Users Conference Water Supply Outlook Reno, Nevada January 26-28, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 44 th Annual Mid-Pacific Region 2011 Water Users Conference Water Supply Outlook Reno, Nevada January 26-28, 2011

2 Central Valley Project Operations Sacramento, CA Water Supply Outlook January 2011

3 Folsom Dam Flood Releases December 2010

4 Chart from California Data Exchange Center 8-Station Index Precipitation

5 Chart from California Data Exchange Center 5-Station Index Precipitation

6 Sierra Snow Pack Chart from California Data Exchange Center

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8 Three-Month Precipitation Outlook Feb – Apr 2010 Chart from NOAA - CNRFC

9 Current Reservoir Storages Chart provided by California Data Exchange Center

10 CVP Reservoir Storage (TAF) January 24, 2011

11 Key Water Supply Assumptions Hydrology based on January 1 conditions Operations to meet SWRCB WRD-1641 Use of current Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives of NMFS BiOp and FWS BiOp Use of approximately 270 TAF of Rescheduled Project water in San Luis Reservoir San Joaquin River flows/Mendota Pool operations not included in supply Capacity for Joint Point of Diversion operations at Banks Pumping Plant is not available Water supply augmentation actions are available

12 Key CVP Operations Points San Luis Reservoir fills in early February Jones Pumping Plant is at maximum capacity in July, August, and September Roe Island water quality is not triggered for February (x2)

13 Water Supply Outlook Stanislaus River 90% and 50% Exceedence 100% Project Water (155,000 acre-feet)

14 Mid-Pacific Region Initial Water Year 2011 Supply Forecast January 18, 2011 Probability of Exceedence Forecasts Percent of Historical Average Sacramento Valley Index & Year Type North of DeltaSouth of Delta AgM&IRWRAgM&IRWR 50%111% Wet 100 5075*100 90%88% Below Normal 100 4575*100 Recent Historic Average (5-Year Average Allocation) 7690 100 4977 100 WY 2011 Water Supply Outlook *Municipal and Industrial supply is based on historical deliveries

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16 Shasta Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections Inflow to date: 1,696 TAF Average Inflow to date: 1,883 TAF 90% Exceedence Projection: 4,960 TAF 50% Exceedence Projection: 6,380 TAF Historical WY Average: 6,107 TAF

17 New Melones Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections Inflow to date: 385 TAF Average Inflow to date: 256 TAF 90% Exceedence Projection: 1,126 TAF 50% Exceedence Projection: 1,504 TAF

18 Thank You

19 South Central California Area Office Fresno, CA Water Supply Outlook January 2011

20 2011 Friant Division Outlook

21 OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct – Jan 2011-To- Date 11.655.5317.573.4838.23 2010 6.120.566.197.708.084.877.222.070.000.040.00 20.57 Average 77-07 2.154.626.618.408.487.193.822.090.660.450.200.9721.78

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23 Crane Valley 22,895 AF 45,500 AF Mammoth Pool 85,836 AF 122,000 AF Edison Lake 75,728 AF 125,000 AF Huntington Lake 62,555 AF 89,000 AF Florence Lake 38,067 AF 64,000 AF Shaver Lake 28,553 AF 136,000 AF Kerckhoff Reservoir 3,584 AF 4,188 AF Redinger Lake 20,261 AF 26,000 AF Millerton Lake 396,666 AF 520,500 AF San Joaquin Basin Upstream Storages January 25, 2011 Total Capacity 2011 % Capacity 2010 % Capacity Total Upstream Storage337,479611,68855%53% Millerton Lake Storage396,666520,50076%45% Total Storage734,1451,132,18865%49%

24 Maximum Upstream Storage July 21, 2010: 576,964 AF 50%: 554,300 AF (July) 90%: 554,300 AF (July) Note: January 25, 2011: 337,479 AF January 25, 2010: 323,839 AF

25 Note: January 25, 2011: 396,666 AF January 25, 2010: 234,436 AF Maximum Lake Storage July 6, 2010: 496,382 AF 50%: 520,400 AF (July) 90%: 497,450 AF (June)

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27 2011 Cachuma Project Outlook

28 OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct-Jan 2011-To Date 2.241.429.481.58 14.72 2010 2.200.003.0010.344.920.263.150.050.00 15.54 Average 0.681.923.094.384.653.501.570.380.040.010.020.21 10.07

29 Maximum Lake Storage April 28, 2010: 178,075 AF 10%: 192,895 AF (April) 50%: 181,677 AF (March) 90%: 174,108 AF (Jan) Note: January 26, 2011: 174,959 AF January 26, 2010: 152,005 AF

30 100% Water Supply – 25,714 acre feet 2011 Cachuma Project Water Supply Outlook

31 Thank You

32 Klamath Basin Area Office Klamath Falls, OR Water Supply Outlook January 2011

33 Klamath Basin Outlook

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43 Snowpack Average and Peak 1/26/2010 1/26/2011 Average Peak

44 Natural Resources Conservation Service January Klamath Basin Forecast Average Probability (50% Exceedance) Upper Klamath Lake Inflow (April – September) 585,000 acre-feet 114% of average Clear Lake Inflow (February – July) 125,000 acre-feet 119% of average Gerber Reservoir Inflow (February – July) 55,000 acre-feet 117% of average

45 Thank You

46 Lahontan Basin Area Office Carson City, NV Water Supply Outlook January 2011

47 Hundreds Attend Global Warming Protest

48 Current Snowpack Conditions (Snow Water Equivalent)

49 Total Precipitation To Date

50 Soil Moisture Content Previous 4-Year Average Jan. 01, 2011 near 60% Saturation Soils are very wet due to above avg. precip. Will improve runoff potential in the spring/summer Similar conditions in Tahoe and Truckee Basins Range of Historical Data (shaded) Modified from NRCS 40% 30% 25%

51 Reservoir Storage

52 April-July Runoff Forecasts

53 Historical Truckee River Runoff April-July

54 Thank You

55 The 44 th WUC Presentation Online at: http://www.usbr.gov/mp/pa/wuc

56 Q and A


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