1. Idaho Water Supply Outlook IDWR State Water Supply Meeting Jan 11, 2013

2. Summer 2012 Fires Trinity Ridge (Boise Basin) 147,000ac Long Draw (Owyhee Basin) 350,000ac Jacks (Owyhee/Bruneau Basins) 51,000ac Idaho led the nation in acres burned with 1.7 million acres.

3. Hydrologic Fire Effects: Earlier snowmelt & runoff Forest Fire Impacts on Snowmelt Rates Atlanta Summit vs Jackson Peak for 2000 and 2004

4. New Normals this Year Every decade the 30 year normals change periods. This year we go from the 1971-2000 period to the 1981-2010 period. The change is meant to keep pace with current climatic conditions as most recent years are said to represent the current conditions. Most data types will be calculated as a straight average except Snow Water Equivalent which will be the “median” or “middle value”

5. Trade 7 big years for 9 low years Apr-Sep Volumes: 1971-2000 average = 1,526 KAF 1981-2010 average = 1,363 KAF Compare 2012 runoff of 1,600 KAF 105% of 1971-2000 average 117% of 1981-2010 average +12%

6. Old 1971-2000 vs New 1981-2010 Normals Trade 7 big years for 9 low years 1971-2000 average = 39.5” 1981-2010 median = 35.3” Compare 2012 snowpack of 37.9” 95% of 1971-2000 average 107% of 1981-2010 average +12%

7. Why will SWE use a median?

10. Water Year Precipitation Oct 1 – Jan 8

11. Idaho Water Year Precipitation Oct 1 – Jan 8

12. Snowpack as of Jan 8

13. Idaho Snowpack as of Jan 11

14. Snow Water % of Normal as of Dec 5 th Storms brought several feet of snow in Central Idaho Mountains

15. + and – are Near Record High Snow above 6,881 feet: Deadwood Summit Lost-wood Divide Bear Canyon Stickney Mill + and – are Near Record Low Snow below 6100 feet: Cozy Cove Graham GS Bogus Basin

17. 2013 Snowpack trends Long range experimental NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Max SWE model compared to current Jan 8, 2013 conditions

19. This region has already received over 57% of annual precipitation 2012 annual precipitation was 123% of average. Above normal Fall precipitation primed soils and brought streams to above average levels.

21. Forecast range 39 to 113 to 190% 2012 runoff 80%

23. Dec 31, 2012 storage 28.3 KAF 1971-00 average Dec 31 = 23.7 119 % 1981-10 average Dec 31 = 21.9 130%

26. Forecast range 76 to 100 to 124%

27. 2012 runoff 21%

29. The graphs above, make 2012 look like a normal year, but the way the snow fell, melted with 90F temperatures in early April followed by 1-2” of rain in late April and minimal summer precipitation was anything but normal…. Let’s hope 2013 is a little more normal with these new normals. Questions/Comments