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CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update March 27, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update March 27, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update March 27, 2014

2 Topics LC Operations Update Minute 319 Update

3 Lower Basin Operations Water Year 2014 Lake Mead Conditions Current elevation: 1,103.0 feet (46% full) Projected 2014 EOCY elevation: 1,086.0 feet –Projected decline of 22.8 feet in CY 2014 Operating under the Normal/ICS Surplus Condition –Lower Basin projected water use of 7.5 maf +/- ICS created or delivered –Mexico projected to take delivery of 1.5 maf +/- any water deferred or delivered Environmental pulse flow taking place in Spring 2014 (105 kaf) –Restoration of the Lower Colorado reach in Mexico

4 Lower Basin Side Inflows – WY/CY 2014 1,2 Intervening Flow from Glen Canyon to Hoover Dam Month in WY/CY 2014 5-Year Average Intervening Flow (KAF) Observed Intervening Flow (KAF) Observed Intervening Flow (% of Average) Difference From 5-Year Average (KAF) HISTORICAL October 2013 52 3873%-14 November 2013 52 116221%64 December 2013 95 4143%-54 January 2014 7545 60%-30 February 2014 7876 97%-2 FUTURE March 2014 68 April 2014 80 May 2014 60 June 2014 23 July 2014 64 August 2014 116 September 2014 97 October 2014 52 November 2014 52 December 2014 95 WY 2014 Totals86082496%-36 CY 2014 Totals86082896%-32 1 Values were computed with the LC’s gain-loss model for the most recent 24-month study. 2 Percents of average are based on the 5-year mean from 2009-2013.

5 Lower Basin Side Inflows – WY/CY 2013 1,2 Intervening Flow from Glen Canyon to Hoover Dam 1 Values were computed with the LC’s gain-loss model for the October 2013 24-month study. 2 Percents of average are based on the 5-year mean from 2008-2012.

6 Lower Basin Side Inflows – WY/CY 2014 1,2 Intervening Flow from Glen Canyon to Hoover Dam 1 Values were computed with the LC’s gain-loss model for the most recent 24-month study. 2 Percents of average are based on the 5-year mean from 2009-2013.

7 Lower Basin Side Inflows 5-year average comparison: 2013/2014

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9 Lower Basin Side Inflows Forecast value comparison: CBRFC vs. USBR

10 1,219.6 26.120 maf Lake Powell Lake Mead 3,700 24.322 maf Not to Scale 16.2 maf 9.5 maf 9.6 maf 17.0 maf 1,145 1,075 3,648 3,575 2.5 maf 1.9 maf Dead Storage 0.0 maf 895 3,370 1,10512.2 maf 5.9 maf3,525 1,025 6.0 maf 1,082.8 feet 10.2 maf in storage 40% of capacity 3,615.4 feet 13.3 maf in storage 55% of capacity End of Water Year 2014 Projections March 2014 24-Month Study Most Probable Inflow Scenario 1 7.48 maf Projected Unregulated Inflow into Powell = 11.80 maf (109% of average) 1 WY 2014 unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is based on the CBRFC outlook dated 3/4/14.

11 1,219.6 26.120 maf Lake Powell Lake Mead 3,700 24.322 maf 16.2 maf 9.5 maf 9.6 maf 17.0 maf 1,145 1,075 3,648 3,575 2.5 maf 1.9 maf Dead Storage 0.0 maf 895 3,370 1,10512.2 maf 5.9 maf3,525 1,025 6.0 maf End of Calendar Year 2014 Projections March 2014 24-Month Study Most Probable Inflow Scenario 1 1,085.99 feet 10.5 maf in storage 40% of capacity 3,611.4 feet 12.9 maf in storage 53% of capacity 1 WY 2014 unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is based on the CBRFC outlook dated 3/4/14. Not to Scale

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13 Percent of Traces with Event or System Condition Results from January 2014 CRSS 1,2 (values in percent) Event or System Condition2014 3 2015201620172018 Upper Basin – Lake Powell Equalization Tier017233129 Equalization – annual release > 8.23 maf017223129 Equalization – annual release = 8.23 maf0<11 Upper Elevation Balancing Tier050514542 Upper Elevation Balancing – annual release > 8.23 maf08303431 Upper Elevation Balancing – annual release = 8.23 maf0422111 Upper Elevation Balancing – annual release < 8.23 maf0<1 Mid-Elevation Release Tier10033171318 Mid-Elevation Release – annual release = 8.23 maf0<1 11 Mid-Elevation Release – annual release = 7.48 maf10033171217 Lower Elevation Balancing Tier0<1911 Lower Basin – Lake Mead Shortage Condition – any amount (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft)0<1445453 Shortage – 1 st level (Mead ≤ 1,075 and ≥ 1,050)0<1434431 Shortage – 2 nd level (Mead < 1,050 and ≥ 1,025)0<11918 Shortage – 3 rd level (Mead < 1,025)0<1 14 Surplus Condition – any amount (Mead ≥ 1,145 ft) 0 <14713 Surplus – Flood Control0<1 12 Normal or ICS Surplus Condition100>99523934 1 Reservoir initial conditions based on observed levels on December 31, 2013 2 Hydrologic inflow traces based on resampling of the observed natural flow record from 1906-2010 3 Percentages shown in 2014 are reported as ‘0’ as 2014 operations were determined by the August 2013 24-Month Study

14 Additional Operational Data (provisional year-to-date values) Mexico Excess Flows  3,886 acre-feet (as of 3/26/14) Brock Reservoir Total Storage  35,800 acre-feet (as of 3/22/14) Senator Wash Total Storage  13,800 acre-feet (as of 3/22/14)

15 Minute 319: Pulse Flow

16 Lower Colorado River Operations For further information: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region Email at: bcoowaterops@usbr.gov


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