1. NOAA National Weather Service Missouri River Forecaster’s Meeting Kansas City, Missouri November 2010 Ross Wolford Senior Operations Hydrologist Missouri Basin River Forecast Center http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc ross.wolford@noaa.gov

2. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Today’s Presentation General description of our forecast process Our responsibilities (deterministically) How our model works How we can change what the model does How forecasts can differ from our model and other peoples estimates Some forecasting challenges in 2010

3. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions MBRFC Area of Responsibility 25 Major River Basins 1.Upper Missouri River 2.Big Horn River 3.Yellowstone River 4.Milk River 5.Upper Dakota Tributaries 6. Middle Dakota Tributaries 7. Lower Dakota Tributaries 8. North Platte River 9. South Platte River 10. James/Vermillion Rivers 11.Big/Little Sioux Rivers 12.Loup River 13.Elkhorn/Platte River 14.Upper Missouri Tributaries 15.Upper Republican River 16.Upper Smoky Hill River 17.Lower Republican River 18.Lower Smoky Hill River 19.Big Blue River 20.Kansas River 21.Marais Des Cygnes River 22.Osage River 23.Lower Missouri Tributaries 24.Grand/Chariton Rivers 25.Missouri Mainstem 1 3 4 6 7 9 8 2 14 24 12 11 10 23 13 17 19 16 22 20 5 15 21 18

4. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Major Basins are divided into about 1000 sub-basins

5. National Weather Service Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Observed Period Estimated Precipitation

6. National Weather Service Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Forecast Precipitation

7. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model

8. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Hydrologic Model Runoff from each basin routed downstream:  Runoff applied to unitgraphs  Flow routed from basin to basin  Flow adjusted at each gage site based on current stage and rating  Forecasted flow converted to stage based on current rating

9. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Deterministic Forecasts

10. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions What can forecasters change to affect model output? Snowmelt rate, was precip rain or snow?, runoff, snowpack water equivalent, SCA, rainfall, soil water content of any “bucket”, use radar-mix or “gage only”, past or forecast precip, unit hydrograph shape and duration, most time series (e.g. routed water, forecast streamflow). Future changes to time series, runoff, and rain+melt mods do not function on “raw model” runs. *

11. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions WHEN THINGS GO WRONG

12. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo, Nebraska, June 13, 2010

13. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo, Nebraska, June 14, 2010

14. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo, Nebraska, June 16, 2010

15. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 24-hour QPF June 13, 2010

16. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 24-hr Rainfall June 14, 2010

17. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Platte R., Louisville, NE +30 to 50K

18. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Little Nemaha, Auburn, NE +20K

19. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Tarkio River, Fairfax, Mo +20K

20. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Big Nemaha R., Falls City, NE +23K

21. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Kansas River, Desoto, KS +40K

22. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Missouri R, Herman, Mo +60K

23. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Ross Wolford ross.wolford@noaa.gov NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc/

24. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo Ratings

25. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions NWSRFS - St. Joseph, Mo 6-16-2010

26. National Weather Service QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS Raw Model Output

27. National Weather Service QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS The QPF Input

28. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Chronology of Forecasting Events 6:30-8:30 Review and manually adjust hourly Multisensor Precip Estimates ending at 12z. Automatic estimates every hour at about :20. Transfer to ldm for Corps every hour at :32. 6:30-7:00 Review and adjust QPF. Copy to ldm for Corps whenever QPF is run. 6:45 Automatic run of all rivers. Missouri River flows provided to NCRFC 7:00-9:30 Missouri River and tributaries models updated adjusting model states and inputs as needed. Missouri River flows updated and provided to NCRFC whenever model rerun. Call Corps as necessary to get gate changes.

29. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Chronology of Forecasting Events Continued 8:20 Retrieve Corps RCC reservoir report 8:30-9:30 Releases for Bagnell Reservoir on Osage River provided by Ameren Power, typically well after 9:00 9:00-10:00 Issue Kansas and Missouri River daily forecasts. Products provided Corps every 10 minutes 9:10 Provide daily precipitation report to Corps via email 9:30, 10:00 Provide Missouri River tributary flows to Corps

30. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Chronology of Forecasting Events Continued 10:16 Begin retrieving Kansas City Corps bulletin and reservoir release forecasts 10:35 Retrieve Omaha District bulletin 10:20 Provide QPF ensemble scenario forecasts to NCRFC, WFOs and Corps 11:00 Retrieve Missouri River forecasts from Corps RCC