1. Idaho Weather, Climate and Water Supply Outlook IDWR Briefing, March 10 th 2011 Jay Breidenbach, NOAA National Weather Service National Snow Movies Recent Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Forecast for next 10 days – continuation of stormy pattern La-Nina Status Three Month Climate Outlook Water Supply Numbers and Idaho Spring Flood Outlook

4. Snow Water Equivalent February 8 th, 2011

5. Snow Water Equivalent March 11 th, 2011

6. After the January Thaw

8. Temperature and Precipitation at Boise

9. Perceptible Water Image

10. Thursday - March 11th IR Satellite Imagery / 500 mb heights

11. Thursday, March 10 th (Morning) 500 mb heights / model precipitation

12. Thursday, March 10 th (Noon) 500 mb heights / model precipitation

13. Thursday, March 10 th (evening)

14. Saturday, March 11th

15. Sunday, March 12th

16. Sunday, March 13th

17. Monday, March 14th

18. Tuesday, March 15th

19. Wednesday, March 16th

20. Thursday, March 17th

21. Total Precipitation Ending Thursday, March 17 th

22. Mature La-Nina Beginning to Weaken

23. Cross Section Along Equator

24. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 6 March 2011 Most CFS ensemble forecasts predict the a return to near normal sea-surface conditions by mid-summer 2011.

25. Temperature Precipitation U. S. Seasonal Outlooks March 2011

26. Temperature Precipitation U. S. Seasonal Outlooks March - May 2011

27. Near Normal Water Supply Expected in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011

28. Average Spring Flood Threat in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011 Exceptions: Large snow pack and Forecast River Volumes have slightly elevated flood risk in: -Portions of Upper Snake River Basin -Bear River Basin

29. Significant Rises expected on Lower Elevation Streams Weiser River

30. Malheur River

31. Owyhee River

32. Payette River at Lowman

33. Current Information on Web www.weather.gov/boise www.nwrfc.noaa.gov