FAIRMODE Plenary Meeting 16/06/2011 Forthcoming policy needs - EU Air Policy Review – FAIRMODE contribution Joachim D’Eugenio European Commission ENV C.3 – Industrial Emissions, Air Quality & Noise

Overview Introduction EU Air Quality Review Possible FAIRMODE contribution

Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution National Emission Ceilings Directive Ambient Air Quality Directives Transport Energy Waste Agriculture Industry Households 2005

Percent improvement (gap-closure) in 2020 compared to situation in Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (2005) Towards 6EAP via Interim Objectives

Past and projected emissions of NOx (EEA SoER 2010, IIASA)

Review of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution “Where do we want to go?” mandate some initial ideas process

Continued wide-spread exceedances  PM, NOx/2, Ozone,… NO 2/x and road transport  Real world emissions of NOx much higher than measured at type approval for cars, vans and heavy duty vehicles  Diesel vehicles have higher emissions than petrol cars  Dieselization of the fleet  Higher proportion of total NOx emitted directly in the form of NO 2.  Retrofit standards, Euro 6/VI, New Drive Cycles, … Climate & Energy  Meeting most TSAP objectives by 2020?  Tapping the synergies whilst managing the trade-offs Latest scientific information  WHO guidance,  SOER report… Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (2005) Challenges & Opportunities

Introduction Review Review of 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Article 32 of Directive 2008/50/EC − Review by 2013 of PM 2.5 and, as appropriate, other pollutants − For PM 2.5, review with the view to “establishing a legally binding national exposure reduction obligations” taking into account several elements (latest WHO information, air quality situation and reduction potential, revision of NEC directive, progress in implementation) amongst others Article 8 of Directive 2004/107/EC (4 th Daughter Directive) − Review of heavy metals (As, Cd, Hg, Ni) and PAHs target values (trends, effects, exposure, measurement, measures, etc.) Article 10 of Directive 2001/81/EC (NEC Directive) – originally foreseen since 2006  Commisson Work Programme 2011 (COM(2010) 623 final) foresees review for 2013  College Debate 18/01/2011 (SEC(2011) 342 final)

Positive response and outspoken support by the President and the whole College on: Comprehensive review of EU Air Quality Policy in 2012/2013 Revised NEC directive as part of the review Immediate action in specific policy areas Co-operation with Member States, assisting in achieving compliance (not stopping infringements) Co-benefits with climate change agenda Link to Europe 2020 objectives, e.g. Innovation See documents incl. SEC(2011) 342 at Air Review page on EUROPA: Policy Package to Reduce Air Emissions

Review of the current air quality legislation (including reasons for non-compliance) Review of the current air quality limits and targets − PM 2.5 as required by Directive − Latest scientific evidence of air pollution impacts for ozone, PM 10, heavy metals, PAHs, others? − new targets – long term objectives (2020 – 2030 – 2050?) Possible new measures (eg. vehicle emissions, non-road and small stationary sources, wood burning, agriculture, shipping,...) Link to climate change (eg. co-benefits, short lived climate species) Integration into sectorial policies (transport, energy, vehicle emissions, etc.) – already 2011 (White Paper and 2050 roadmaps) Simplification / smart regulation / streamlining Comprehensive Review

Sulfur content in certain fuels Addressing road transport and vehicle emissions  Real world emissions of NOx much higher than measured at type approval for cars, vans and heavy duty vehicles  Retrofit standards, Euro 6/VI, New Drive Cycles, … Further integration in Climate, Energy & Transport policies  Past and upcoming policy initatives (e.g White Paper on Transport, 2050 roadmap on low carbon economy)  Climate change: tapping the synergies whilst managing the trade-offs Measures in future CAP, Cohesion Policy and Research Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol (currently under negotiation) Immediate action

Assessing the reasons for non-compliance Encouraging exchange of experiences and good practices Streamlining reporting (implementing provisions for reporting) Exploring supporting activities including financing opportunities (eg. Cohesion Policy (ex-INTERREG), LIFE+, research) – also for future FAIRMODE work! Time extensions for NO 2 important process but Commission is bound by clear and limited number of criteria in Directive Enforcement action, where necessary, and as a mean to find solutions Implementation - co-operation with Member States

Consultation Various inputs and consultation processes envisaged: Stakeholder Expert Group Ambient Air Quality Committee and dedicated networks (FAIRMODE, AQUILA) Input from relevant international organisations (eg. WHO, CLRTAP, etc.), existing fora and networks Dedicated workshops, studies and projects (eg. through questionnaires, etc.) Online consultations (first to be launched in June 2011) First meeting of Stakeholder Expert Group on 6/7 June 2011.

Supporting studies / work An number of supporting studies and other supporting activities are under preparation: Questionnaire / ex-post evaluation of ambient air quality directives (ongoing – see UBA, Austria/TNO) Short term action plans (ongoing – implementation) Review requirements Art 32 of 2008/50 and Art 8 of 2004/107 Scenarios and impacts (baseline, maximum, options, costs, benefits) – building on work of EC4MACS Hemispheric transboudary air pollution Cooperation with WHO on new scientific evidence for health Support activities from JRC, EEA, RTD, others incl. FAIRMODE Use other relevant projects – EC4MACs, APHEKOM, ENA... Once first results are available, they will be presented to SEG

Process and timetable (assuming 2013) Evaluation phase Policy development phase Finalisation phase Council / EP 6/7 JunexxxxxStakeholder EG Online consultations

Possible FAIRMODE contribution (1) – short term Stakeholder Group – consultation process started in June FAIRMODE can provide input on: Assessment of (effectiveness of) implementation of modelling aspects in ambient air quality legislation Strengths and weaknesses of current system Reduction of uncertainties of modelling results Recommendations for improving the use and comparability of modelling in the legislation in conjunction with monitoring Other issues...first step is to define elements for contribution (EEA and JRC to draft outline and process) Input (in the form of a draft report) by mid-2012 needed – first presentation to Stakeholder EG, then finalisation by end 2012

Possible FAIRMODE contribution (2) – short term Link to scenario work for future air quality policy – assist in methodological work of EC4MACS: Complementing GAINS/CityDelta approach, ie. Downscaling emissions scenarios to street canyon level Piloting exercise for developing baseline and policy scenarios at local and regional level – parallel testing where some MS apply their national/regional/local models Need to develop details (incl. work plan) for the exercise with IIASA and JRC (planned tentatively for Sept 2011 – early 2012)

Future of FAIRMODE (mid- and long term) – some ideas Role of FAIRMODE in implementation after 2012? Advice for all types of modelling needed (e.g. AQ, integrated assessment, planning or source apportionment) Particular need to further develop regional- and urban-scale integrated assessment modelling and its potential to link it to European scale policy development or implementation tools (eg. for planning) (see ambition in FAIRMODE reference guide) Also assessment framework needs to be further developed in a more integrated way (monitoring/monitoring) – use strength of different systems This should be achieved through closer collaboration with monitoring network (i.e. AQUILA) – possibly by developing joint work plan Improve implementation “relevance” of FAIRMODE Develop work plan for FAIRMODE (preferably jointly with AQUILA) by mid-2012 to be endorsed by AAQ Committee

Conclusions FAIRMODE is key network for the implementation of Air Quality legislation and can make a significant contribution to the review of EU’s Air Quality Policy Create synergies with other ongoing work (e.g. AQUILA, EC4MACS) Provide recommendations for future work and Air Policy review based on FAIRMODE experience Start debate on future of FAIRMODE including question of financing (e.g. through existing programmes such as LIFE+)

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