Global Hydrogen Systems Analysis HIA Task 30 Kick-off meeting: J ü lich, Germany, September 2010 Co-operating Agents: Jochen Linssen and Susan Schoenung

2 IEA Organization IEA-CERT REWPFFWPEUWP Advanced Fuel Cells Advanced Motor Fuels HydrogenBio-energy Greenhouse Gas Clean Coal HCG Information Centers Task 30 IEA Organization Tasks Subtask A, B, C CERT = Committee on Energy Research and Technology

3 IEA Hydrogen Implementing Agreement Efforts toward the commercialization of hydrogen Mission The mission of the IEA Hydrogen Program is to accelerate hydrogen implementation and widespread utilization. Vision Our vision for a hydrogen future is based on clean sustainable energy supply of global proportions that plays a key role in all sectors of the economy. Strategic Plan The strategy of the IEA's Hydrogen Program is to facilitate, coordinate, and maintain innovative RD&D activities through international cooperation and information exchange. Seven areas are targeted: Technology, Energy Security, Environmental, Economic, Market, Deployment, and Outreach.

4 IEA Hydrogen Implementing Agreement Tasks Fundamental research focus Application focus time

5 IEA Hydrogen Implementing Agreement Tasks Task 18: Integrated Systems Evaluation Task 19: Safety Task 21: Biohydrogen Task 22: Advanced storage materials Task 23: Small-scale reformers Task 24: Wind to hydrogen (has electrolyzer market focus) Task 25: High temperature production Task 26: Biomass to Hydrogen (has market focus) Task 27: Hydrogen from Waterphotolysis Task 28: Large-scale delivery of hydrogen Task 29: Distributed and community hydrogen Task 30: Global hydrogen systems analysis

6 Overview / Background of Task 30 Analysis Committee established spring 2007 to address HIA need for internally-developed analytical materials. 1st Task Definition meeting, Seville, November nd Task Definition meeting: Paris, February 2010 Approval to proceed with Task: Essen, May 2010 Participants (preliminary / yes at Paris meeting): Germany (Co-OA) USA (Co-OA) Canada France Greece Italy Interest based on 1st Task Definition meeting: Australia New Zealand UK Japan Norway Spain Switzerland Sweden

7 Goals and Objectives The Goal of the Global Hydrogen Systems Analysis task is to perform comprehensive technical and market analysis of hydrogen technologies and resources, supply and demand related to the projected use of hydrogen in a low- carbon world with sustainable and including intermittent energy sources. The specific objectives of this task are: to prepare authoritative analyses which can be used to answer questions about hydrogen sources and utilization posed by the IEA HIA, the task members, the IEA, and government institutions; to update the assessment of hydrogen technology maturity and projections to interface with other HIA tasks regarding data and R&D progress; to collaborate with IEA (Paris) analysis processes and support the HIA Executive Committee in the liaison with IEA analysts

8 Organization and Subtasks Co-operating Agents: Jochen Linssen (Germany) and Susan Schoenung (USA) Subtask A. Detailed Analyses Subtask leader: Dr. Susan Schoenung, Longitude 122 West, Inc. Subtask B. Update IEA “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells,” report Subtask leader: Mr. Jochen Linssen, Research Center, Jülich Subtask C. Collaboration with IEA Analytics Subtask leader: Ms. Kari Aamodt Espegren, Institute for Energy Technology, Norway

9 Expected Outcomes Work products will include: –Authoritative studies, both refereed journal articles and traditional IEA reports –Update IEA “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells,” report (with input from other HIA Tasks) –Collaboration with IEA World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Perspectives –Task website

10 Success Criteria for this Meeting –Get to know each other, our expertise and interests –Establish roles and responsibilities for experts / Subtask leaders –Develop an overall Task Work Plan for approval of the Executive Committee –Agree on approach and data requirements for Subtask A –Identify website provider –Address additional ExCo request (ESTAP) –Make (tentative) plans for next meetings: spring 2011 (Paris) and fall 2011 (?)

11 Responsibilities of the Experts In addition to the obligations enumerated in Article 8 of this Agreement, each Participant shall: Attend all Task meetings, and all Subtask meetings to which it contributes, and present status of the ongoing or completed work at such meetings. Provide the Operating Agent with a National Participation Letter, indicating their commitment for the duration of the task and the level of contribution to the Annex. The National Participation Letters in aggregate represent the National Participation Plan. Contribute to the collective efforts of the Task in accordance with the Programme of Work approved by the Executive Committee pursuant to Article 5(c) and the National Participation Plan; and Assist in the review of technical reports produced by the task.

12 Subtask A: Detailed Analyses Global Hydrogen Resources Overview Authoritative analysis providing output from HIA and input to other activities Based on reduced carbon energy supply and utilization Global Hydrogen resources and demand Regional differentiation-this is key! What if? scenarios Global trade implications

13 Subtask A: Working Session Overview – objectives and proposed approach Input data required Analysis / model demo Group discussion Planning session – tasking, timing, deliverables Next steps

14 Subtask A. Detailed Analyses Global Hydrogen Resources Elements Agree on fundamental assumptions for a low-carbon world Assess regional hydrogen resources around the globe Estimate projected demands for hydrogen Start with passenger vehicles as base case Using Dynamic Systems Modeling, examine resource flows in a time-varying global energy economy. What flows between nations? Some examples are raw materials such natural gas, biomass, platinum or other exotic materials, conversion technologies such as wind turbines or electrolyzers, or output such as hydrogen or electricity. Focus on impact of these global changes on IEA HIA participating countries. Evaluate cost impacts of limited resources as supply and demand change over time. Examine the unintended implications (advantages or disadvantages) on IEA HIA participating countries

15 Subtask A. Detailed Analyses Global Hydrogen Resources Expert skills required: systems modeling familiarity with national data and infrastructure roll- out scenarios

16 Global Impacts: What flows between nations? Answer questions such as: how will a global transition to a new energy infrastructure affect energy and material flows? What are the implications on imports / exports? What are the potential cost impacts? Regional differentiation

17 First step - Simple supply and demand Country A Country B Resources Projected demand Surplus Shortage Time kg H2 Need to know: resources, demand, infrastructure plans

18 System dynamics example using Powersim software

19 Subtask A. Detailed Analyses Global Hydrogen Resources Additional detailed analysis will build on the first analyses and model building effort aimed at investigating the different resources. While a number of distinctly separate studies will be performed to answer specific questions, these studies will build on the work / modeling from the previous analysis.

20 Subtask A: Additional studies Near term market study Reductions in carbon emissions based on various hydrogen scenarios Hydrogen and renewable energy Hydrogen for large, utility scale energy storage The possibilities for global trade and transport of hydrogen

21 Subtask B: Update Hydrogen Database

22 Subtask C: Collaboration with IEA ETP/ WEO Analytics

23 Request from Executive Committee: ETSAP document review IEA Energy Technology Essentials: Hydrogen Production & Distribution (2007) Automotive Hydrogen Technology (2010) Reviews requested within 6 months

24 Annex Responsibilities / Operating agent (s) Work Plan for Approval at next ExCo - November in Istanbul Annual information plan 2 semi-annual progress reports and presentations 1 annual report (+ DOE reporting) Websites: private and public

25 Work Plan Elements Brief statement of Task objectives Brief description of Subtasks For each Subtask: oActivities oParticipants oDeliverables oMilestone Schedule Information Plan dealing with Task reports and other products Resource requirements

26 Task Formulation / Schedule Time frame: June 2010 through December 2013 Expert meetings: 2 x per year; 1 x each year in Paris Next Experts meeting: Paris? Possible joint with ExCo Quarterly conference calls: November, January

27 Action Items Confirm experts for each Subtask: Canada, Japan Contact Greece, Australia, UK Sign National Participation Commitment Letters (The minimum level of effort for participation: 0.5 person-years / year for participating countries) Prepare Work Plan for presentation to ExCo - Susan and Jochen Prepare minutes and semi-annual report - Susan Confirm web conference dates and instructions Website ???

28 Success Criteria for this Meeting - how did we do? –Get to know each other, our expertise and interests –Establish roles and responsibilities for experts / Subtask leaders –Develop an overall Task Work Plan for approval of the Executive Committee –Agree on approach and data requirements for Subtask A –Identify website provider –Address additional ExCo request (ESTAP) –Make (tentative) plans for next meetings: spring 2011 (Paris) and fall 2011 (?)

29 Contact Information Jochen Linssen: Susan Schoenung: Kari Espegren:

30 March 2011 SuMoTuWeThFrSa

31 April 2011 SaSuMoTuWeThFr

32 May 2011 Sa 30 Su 31 Mo 1 Tu 2 We 3 Th 4 Fr