European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE baseline Consistency check with PRIMES-RAINS baseline UNECE TFIAM, Amiens 11 May 2004 Matti Vainio Jacques Delsalle European Commission European Commission DG Environment, Clean Air and Transport Unit

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE Development: Project status  Lot 1 (2003)  Model design and preliminary baseline (2.0) completed March 2004 (available on  Lot 2 (2004)  Baseline consistency checks with RAINS  Stakeholder Consultation on model and baseline  Identification of emission reduction options  Model ready: Oct (revised baseline 2.3, all modules)  Lot 3 ( ) : Policy Simulations

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE/SCENES vs. RAINS/PRIMES RAINSPRIMES Pax.km Ton.km Fuel Consumption Pollutants Emissions Macro-economic Assumptions SCENES Pax.km Ton.km TREMOVE Vehicle.km Fuel Consumption Pollutants Emissions (COPERT II in v. 2.0) Make 2 modelling frameworks singing from the same hymn sheet…

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Projection Passenger Transport Volumes 2020 close (-4.3%) for road

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Projection Freight Transport Volumes 2020 close (+1.5%) for road.

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Fuel consumption underestimated in TREMOVE (-23% in 2000). Gap increases by 2020

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE has stronger diesel penetration (80% vs. 60% in 2020) and impact on PM emissions.

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE baseline has lower NOx emissions

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Off-Road : Demand and vehicle cate- gories not same in TREMOVE and RAINS

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Next steps l Further co-ordination between TREMOVE, PRIMES AND RAINS modellers m Action on fuel consumption in TREMOVE: r Revised fuel consumption factors for passenger cars r Improvement truck modelling (load factors) m Assumption constant diesel share in RAINS to be modified m Further consistency check on RAINS emissions (different vehicle categories, non-road modes) m Revised Transport baseline ready for 31/8/2004

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Stakeholders consultation on the TREMOVE Baseline l 3 Contact Group meetings in Leuven (Belgium) m 27th May: Transport Demand (SCENES) m 28th May:Vehicle Stock (incl. Diesel share) m 21st June: Emissions (COPERT III) l Agenda: m Baseline consistency check m Focus on new Member States l If interested, please contact: or