Climate Change & Agriculture in Uzbekistan Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop May 19, 2010 Tashkent Dr. William R. Sutton Senior Agricultural Economist Europe & Central Asia Region The World Bank

Why Should You Care about Climate Change? Climate change is already happening in Uzbekistan Climate change in Uzbekistan will accelerate in the future “Business as usual” approach will have negative impacts for agriculture Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses

Uzbekistan’s Climate Is Already Changing Source:

Increasing Frequency and Severity of Extreme Events Uzbekistan’s climate is highly variable from month to month and year to year Frequency and severity of extreme events shows an increasing trend, especially high temperature days. Number of Days with Maximum Temperatures Higher than 38 o C

The Adaptation Deficit Mean Yields in Uzbekistan and China for Cotton Seed and Wheat: The productivity gap between potential yields and actual yields is significant for Uzbekistan Countries/regions that have opportunities to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so Source: Wheat Yield Potential Above 7t/ha

Why Should You Care About Climate Change? Climate change in Uzbekistan will Accelerate in the Future

Temperatures are Projected to Increase Significantly

Precipitation is Projected to Increase Moderately

Aridity is Projected to Increase Significantly Summer Temperatures Summer Precipitation

“Business as usual” will result in missed opportunities and negative impacts for agriculture Why Should You Care About Climate Change?

Uzbekistan Is Vulnerable on a Number of Fronts Uzbekistan’s climate change vulnerability exceeds the ECA region average for a number of factors Sources: World Development Indicators 2008; FAO AGL 2005; Baettig, M. et al., 2007., ECA Databank.

Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Reducing Sensitivity Are Critical to Reducing Vulnerability Source: Fay and Patel, 2008.

Some Agro-ecological Zones and Production Systems Are More Vulnerable than Others Countrywide More risk for agricultural production, and increased moisture deficits, especially during summer. Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and other extreme events Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities in suitable areas.

Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) Climate Change Implications Desert and Steppe AEZ Reduced crop and livestock productivity Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and water scarcity

AEZ Climate Change Implications Piedmont AEZ Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities Reduced crop and livestock productivity, especially over summer Increased risk of frosts on early flowering perennials Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization

AEZ Climate Change Implications Highland AEZ Longer growing season could increase pasture productivity. Increased risk of agricultural pests, diseases and weeds. Increased rate and change in timing of snow melt, leading to different stream flow regimes in the lower catchment

Wheat Yields are Projected to Decline, whilst Results for Maize Yields are Mixed Source: Fischer, G., et.al

No Adaptation = Reduced Water for Irrigation Agriculture ≥ 90% of water withdrawals With no adaption, water demand will increase, secured supplies will decrease Result = 500% increase in projected water deficit by 2050 Opportunities for substantial improvements in water use efficiency Source: Adapted from Centre of Hydrometeorological Service, Cabinet of Ministers, Second National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Tashkent

Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses Why Should You Care about Climate Change?

Initial Steps Already Taken, But More to Do First National Communication, 1999; Second National Communication, 2008; Uzhydromet Study: Climate Change and its Impact on Hydrometeorological Processes, Agro-Climatic and Water Resources, Uzbekistan needs a consolidated strategy and a comprehensive action plan to meet the climate challenges facing the crop and livestock sectors.

There is Increasing Global Focus on the Development of National Adaptation Strategies Uzbekistan is a party to Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that stipulates: “All Parties shall formulate and implement measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change” The 2008 Second National Communication of Uzbekistan to the UNFCCC highlights: “Vulnerability assessment and selection of adaptation measures for the agroindustrial complex is of a specific importance for food security” establish a cross-ministerial or cross-sectorial council for adaptation to climate change

Adaptation has Long Investment Horizons – Action is Needed Now Varieties, planting times, spacing, livestock vaccination, tillage practices, water and nutrient management Climate ready germplasm, index insurance irrigation infrastructure, hydromet services farm subsidy and water pricing reform Transformation of landuse or distribution change New products such as ecosystem services Climate change Benefit from adaptation Increasing complexity, cost and risk Source: Adapted from: Howden et al

Why Should You Care about Climate Change? Uzbekistan is one of most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Europe and Central Asia Region Climate variability and change are already impacting Uzbekistan and will accelerate in the future Business as usual approach will result in missed opportunities and negative impacts for agriculture Now is the time to start developing and implementing adaptation responses Focus on “win-win” or “no regrets” solutions, and mitigation opportunities The World Bank has a program to support you in this

Thank You!