1. Professor Snow Barlow Barlow,ATSE, FAIAST A Third Food Revolution Can it be done in a changing climate ?

2. ideas.unimelb.edu.au A Third Food Revolution Can it be done in a changing climate ? Food challenge of wealthy urbanised populations Climate challenges Scientific feasibility of productivity advances Not food alone – energy,water and food Professor Snow Barlow,ATSE, FAIAST

3. Population billions Land hectare/person People vs Land the fundamental equation

4. Global grain stores are at their lowest levels since the beginning of the green revolution Total World Grains Supply – days Days of supply Green Revolution

5. The feed and fuel challenge Increasing demand for grain Source: Goldman Sachs 2007 Human food Biofuels Animal feed Total Demand Growth 1.5%1.6%1.9%2.6% Source: USDA, FAO, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research

6. The Resource base is severely stressed in many areas Northern China, India,Pakistan, Australia (MDB), South West US, Mexico, Middle East and North Africa face water scarcity-major food bowls

7. Projected inflows to the Murray River to 2050 Climate Change impacts are potentially the most severe in the Murray Darling Australia This area is possibly best placed to adapt because of the food production industry capacity and the R & D and Innovation available to support adaptation

8. There are productivity gains yet to be achieved ?? Maize yield – tonnes per hectare Productivity gains can be achieved through science and technology Potential in developing countries to follow in time Local production systems important

9. Salt tolerance genes 3x salt gene 2x salt gene 1x salt gene No salt gene

10. There is much new science and technology to be applied The genomes of all major agricultural plants and animals will be sequenced in the next decade This will accelerate the progress of breeding programs through marker selection, genomics and genetic transformation The climate and spatial sciences could improve seasonal forecasting and irrigation management The application of information systems could improve water use efficiency and market systems Improved communication systems have the capacity to transfer knowledge, improve integration and build local human capacity

11. There is a window of opportunity for crop adaptation that closes without international action Wheat Region No Stabilization 650ppm in 2100 2030 2070 Stabilization 550ppm by 2100 2030 2070 Darlby, Qld 8.2- 18.5 4.8 Moree, NSW 20.6 10.9 17.7 14.1 Birchip, Vic 14.8 -24.1 10.7 1.5 Mimmipa, SA 0.8 -23.9 -3.4 15.3 Wongan Hills, WA 16.1 -21.8 13.0 5.5 Geraldton, WA 12.5 22.4 9.7 5.6 With stabilization at 550 ppm warming is restricted to 2-3C with significant CO 2 fertilization Without Stabilization CO 2 cannot compensate for temperature increases and rainfall decreases

12. There is strong relationship between investment in agricultural R & D and increases in productivity Green revolution Investment There are large social benefits (spillover effects) from agricultural R & D investment in both developed and developing countries R & D investment declined with the grain surpluses of the 80-90s Strong evidence of large returns to R & D investment in developed and developing nations

13. Food WaterEnergy

14. Agriculture and land use change - a major contributor to global emissions It can also play a major role in mitigation

15. The Action Agenda Critical food security issues will emerge before 2030 through population and climate change pressures The science and technology is available to address these productivity issues Significant global investment is required to unlock these productivity increases Unique policy framework required incorporating scientific R & D/aligned to mitigation responses/ cultural and geographic diversity