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The Global Food Security Challenge ( GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th.

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Presentation on theme: "The Global Food Security Challenge ( GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Global Food Security Challenge ( GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th

2 World Development Report 2008 Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security  In ensuring adequate food supply  Global food supply and demand (and shocks)  National food supply and demand for many countries (Africa, China, India)  In providing means for poor to access to food  75 percent of the world’s poor are rural, and most depend on agriculture for livelihoods  Essential role of agriculture in providing subsistence and incomes of the poor 2

3 World Development Report 2008 Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for Increasing Incomes of the Poor  Major conclusion of World Development Report 2008: Agricultural growth is two to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth coming from other sectors 33 Agricultural growth is especially beneficial to the poor

4 World Development Report 2008 WHITHER GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND? 4

5 World Development Report 2008 5 Critical land and water constraints % of population in absolute water scarcity Cropland per capita of agricultural population Global Markets ̶ Supply Side

6 World Development Report 2008 6 Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing Global Markets ̶ Food Supply

7 World Development Report 2008 Rising Energy Prices and Climate Change Price of Urea Fertilizer ($US/t) Climate change will negatively affect yields in the tropics, 2080 7 Source: Cline (2007) Doubling of oil prices increases grain prices by at least 20%

8 World Development Report 2008 8 Changing diets ̶ Rising demand for high value products (and feed grains) Developing and transitional country exports Developing and transitional country consumption Meat Cereals Horticulture Global Markets: Demand Side

9 World Development Report 2008 Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a Major New Factor in Global Markets 9 Source: OECD and FAO, 2008

10 World Development Report 2008 Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise with Current Investment Trends 10 Source: Rosegrant et al., 2008

11 World Development Report 2008 11 Food Production—Continuing Challenges in the 21 st Century  A greater global challenge  More from less  The end of long-term falling food prices?  Trade offs with the environment  Increased volatility  Climate change, energy prices  Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export bans  Inclusive growth  Sharing benefits between producers and consumers  Connecting smallholders to emerging markets

12 World Development Report 2008 INVESTING FOR FOOD SECURITY 12

13 World Development Report 2008 13 Requires Emphasis on Both Technological and Institutional Innovations:  Technological innovations  Higher yield potential to revamp productivity growth  Overcoming key resource constraints (water, drought)  Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers  Substitution of fossil energy use  Adaptation to climate change and reduced GHGs  Institutional innovations  More efficient and inclusive supply chains  Collective action by farmer organizations  Risk management for more frequent price shock

14 World Development Report 2008 Agricultural R&D Intensity 2000 (% AgGDP) Agricultural R&D as a Share of Budget, 2000-04 14 More and Better Investments in R&D to Bridge Growing Divide Source: Pardey and Beintema,

15 World Development Report 2008 Recent Yield Advances Indicate the Potential for R&D to Reverse Trends 15

16 World Development Report 2008 Implications for the Global Community  Do no harm  Reform farm and biofuel subsidies  Mitigation of climate change  Invest in global public goods  R&D (CGIAR)  Get agriculture back on the agenda  Reverse trend in foreign assistance  Revamp national food and agricultural strategies 16

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