QC Follow-up for Single Family SEEM Calibration, HVAC UES Measures, and Weatherization Measures Adam Hadley Regional Technical Forum May 12, 2015

Intro This presentation highlights findings from the RTF’s Quality Control process – Pre-QC values shown in this presentation are the original RTF-adopted values Workbooks reviewed include (all Single Family) – Original RTF adoption date(s): December 2013, May 2014, September 2014 SEEM Calibration – Reports: Phase I, Phase IIPhase IPhase II – Workbook: SF_FullCalibration_06Aug2014_for_QC.xlsm – Original RTF adoption date: September 2014September 2014 Weatherization – Measure Workbook: ResSFWx_v3.xlsmResSFWx_v3.xlsm – SEEM Runs Workbook: SEEMruns_SingleFamilyExistingHVACandWeatherization_September2014.xlsm – Original RTF adoption date: December 2014December 2014 Heat Pump Conversions – Measure Workbook: ResSFExistingHVAC_v1.xlsmResSFExistingHVAC_v1.xlsm – SEEM Runs Workbook: SEEMruns_SingleFamilyExistingASHPConversions_December2014.xlsm Heat Pump Upgrades, Ductless Heat Pumps on Zonal Houses – Measure Workbook: ResSFExistingHVAC_v1.xlsmResSFExistingHVAC_v1.xlsm – SEEM Runs Workbook: SEEMruns_SingleFamilyExistingHVACandWeatherization_December2014.xlsm Heat Pump CC&S – Measure Workbook: ResSFHP_CC&S_Planning.xlsmResSFHP_CC&S_Planning.xlsm – SEEM Runs Workbook: SEEMruns_SingleFamilyExistingHVACandWeatherization_December2014.xlsm Performance-based Duct Sealing – Measure Workbook: ResSFPerformanceBasedDuctSealing_Provisional.xlsmResSFPerformanceBasedDuctSealing_Provisional.xlsm – SEEM Runs Workbook: SEEMruns_SingleFamilyExistingHVACandWeatherization_December2014.xlsm 2

Major Errors Corrected 1.SEEM Calibration to RBSA Data (found indirectly through QC) – For the calibration, RBSA crawlspace houses originally weren’t assigned a perimeter length in SEEM Fix changed the Phase I adjustment factors (moved them down, see graphs) [In the separate measure analyses, this smaller adjustment factor results in lower (< 10%) heating energy use and savings for all measures] 3 Pre-QCPost-QC

Major Errors Corrected 4

3.Conversion Measure SEEM Runs – Uo range re-calculated to include infiltration component (Uo-both) Previous Uo range: to 0.319; Correct Uo range: to Result – Changed the Uo cutoffs (definitions) of “good, fair, and poor” insulation (“heat pump conversion measure identifier calculator” was updated) – Changed the heat pump size and therefore, measure costs – Duct R-values set at average RBSA levels to mimic “first in” decision on duct sealing for conversion measures – Combined results: Electric savings went up by 30%-36% 4.Conversion Measure Cooling Savings – Re-calculated to apply to the insulation level measure identifier (good, fair, poor) Previously, savings were calculated as last measure in, without insulation level measure identifier factored in Result: Cooling savings substantially higher in “fair” and “poor” cases 5.Wall area previously included window area – This fix increased savings for wall insulation measures by more than 10% 6.Weatherization Measures Cooling Savings – Cell reference to wrong column Fix changed cooling savings (no discernable pattern) 5

Major Errors Corrected 7.Weatherization Measures for Heat Pumps (not a QC finding) – Original weatherization analysis used old heat pump control strategy for CC&S (HPcntrl = 100). To be consistent with heat pump measure analysis, now using the revised control strategy (HPcntrl = 103) which includes 80% airflow multiplier for the standard practice heat pump installation (see December 2014 presentation) Reduced savings for heat pump weatherization measures by more than 10% Did not change HVAC measure savings, since their original RTF adoption assumed HPcntrl = Window Measure Life (not a QC finding) – Changed back to 45 years (from 25 years) per RTF decision February 2015February 2015 Note: Many minor errors were corrected, too – See QC memo’s for details (ask Jenn) 6

Heat Pump Conversions 7

All FAF w/CAC conversion measures are still cost-effective 8 #3 – Conversion measure savings significantly higher with revised Uo’s

9 The only FAF w/o CAC conversion measure that was previously not cost-effective (HZ3 CZ1 w/ “good insulation”) is now cost-effective. #4 – cooling savings now grow as insulation gets worse #3 – Conversion measure savings significantly higher with revised Uo’s

10 #2 – Corrected Non- electric heat savings calculation

11 #3 – Uo’s are higher, which increases heat pump size and cost

Heat Pump Upgrades 12

All 9.0 HSPF upgrades are still cost-effective. All VCHP (variable capacity heat pump) upgrades are still not cost-effective. 13 #1 – New calibration factors

Heat Pump CC&S and Performance-Based Duct Sealing 14

15 #1 – New calibration factors #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation All measures are still cost-effective.

Ductless Heat Pumps 16

HZ3CZ1 and HZ3CZ2 are now cost-effective HZ1CZ1remains not cost-effective (now the only measure that is not cost-effective) 17 #1 – New calibration factors #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation

Weatherization 18

19 #1 – New calibration factors #7 – Heat pump control and airflow assumptions change

20 #1 – New calibration factors #7 – Heat pump control and airflow assumptions change

21 #1 – New calibration factors #7 – Heat pump control and airflow assumptions change

22 #1 – New calibration factors #5 – Wall area calculation fix #7 – Heat pump control and airflow assumptions change * * * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph.

23 #1 – New calibration factors #5 – Wall area calculation fix #7 – Heat pump control and airflow assumptions change * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

24 #1 – New calibration factors #5 – Wall area calculation fix #7 – Heat pump control and airflow assumptions change * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

25 #6 – Wrong column error

26 #6 – Wrong column error

27 #6 – Wrong column error 3

28 #6 – Wrong column error * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

29 #6 – Wrong column error * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

30 #6 – Wrong column error * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

31 #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation

32 #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation

33 #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation

34 #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

35 #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

36 #2 – Corrected Non-electric heat savings calculation * * * * * * * * * * * = Savings for these measures were divided by 10 in order to fit on this graph. * *

37 #8 – Window Measure Life

38 #8 – Window Measure Life

39 #8 – Window Measure Life #7 – Heat pump control and airflow assumptions change

Proposed Motion None of the intentions behind the original RTF motions were changed, so no decision is needed to make these corrections. 40

Two more things to consider: Item 1 Heat Pump Sizing and Controls/Airflow 1.Conversion Measures: Heat Pump Sizing – Using the average ratio of 1.2 (Desired capacity/Installed Capacity) found in the 2005 NEEA Heat Pump study gives the following sizes for the three conversion measure identifiers (vary by heating zone): Good Insulation: 2.7 to 3.2 tons Fair Insulation: 5.2 to 5.6 tons Poor Insulation: 7.2 to 7.8 tons – These sizes are unrealistically high in the Fair and Poor categories. This causes the model to estimate high savings. – CAT Proposal: Revise savings by capping the heat pump size to a realistic size in the model (5 tons) Change the Conversions measure category from Proven to Planning until we know more about heat pump sizing (and controls and airflow) practices. Use CC&S research strategy (slide 19) for this measure. CC&S research strategy (slide 19 41

Proposed savings with a 5-ton Maximum size limit in the savings model 42

Two more things to consider: Item 2 Controls/Airflow 1.Weatherization measures for heat pumps: CC&S – Changing the heat pump control and airflow settings in the SEEM model changed savings significantly. (Item 7 above) – These inputs are estimates that will be trued up when we know more about heat pump control and airflow practices. – CAT recommendation: Change the weatherization (for houses with heat pumps) measure category from Proven to Planning until we know more about heat pump control and airflow practices. Use CC&S research strategy (slide 19) for this measure. CC&S research strategy (slide 19 43

Proposed Motion “I ______ move, for the Air Source Heat Pump Conversions UES measures, the RTF – Adopt proposed revised savings (note that the SEEM runs, measure identifier calculator, and measure workbook still need to be changed to reflect these savings and costs ) – Adopt the Research Strategy that was previously adopted for CC&S UES measure, – Change the category from ‘Proven’ to ‘Planning’, – Keep status as ‘Active’ – Keep the sunset date at December 2019.” “I ______ move, for the Weatherization (for houses with heat pumps) UES measures, the RTF – Adopt the Research Strategy that was previously adopted for CC&S UES measure, – Change the category from ‘Proven’ to ‘Planning’, – Keep the status as ‘Active’, – Keep the sunset date at September 2019.” 44