Societal Security IR 3001 Week 5 Lecture

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Sudan, Darfur Region: Circumstances- recent drought, dwindling resources historic ethnic competition between the Masalit/Fur and Arabs 1999 clashes which saw Arabs killed

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Rwanda/Burundi (1994/1996-) Circumstances- Historic tensions between Tutsi 14% and Hutu 85% (Rwanda) Assassination of presidents in crash Radical army exiled in Uganda

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Kosovo (1999-) Circumstances- 10 years of conflict in former Yugoslavia Serbian ultra-nationalist in power ethnically cleansing Kosovo by Yugoslav troops

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict East Timor ( ?) Circumstances Indonesian invasion after Portugal leave Super Power politics Ethnic violence on eve of independence

What do we mean by civil wars? Henderson et al: A civil war is a sustained, violent conflict between the military forces of s a state and insurgent forces comprised mainly of citizens (or residents) of the state. Types of domestic conflict: –Turmoil –Conspiracy –Internal war –Civil war

Civil wars as nationalist conflicts What are the options for nationalist movements? –Greater autonomy –Secession (independence) –Irredentism Why do some groups wish to go further than greater autonomy?

Why do civil wars occur? Proposition 1: The presence of semi-democracy increases the likelihood of conflict. Proposition 2: the greater the level of economic development, the lower its likelihood of conflict. Proposition 3: the larger a states level of military spending, the less chance of conflict. Proposition 4: the greater the cultural polarisation, the greater chance of conflict. Proposition 5: the presence of ethnic political groups increases the chance of conflict.

Why do civil wars occur? Proposition 1: The presence of semi-democracy increases the likelihood of conflict. Proposition 2: the greater the level of economic development, the lower its likelihood of conflict. Proposition 3: the larger a states level of military spending, the greater chance of conflict.

The nature of conflict Let us move from the why to the how –Has the nature of conflict changed over time? –Yes and no

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict: Questions What are old wars? According to Mary Kaldor, what are new wars? What are their causes and effects? What should be the response of international community? Does the new war hypothesis help us understand security today?

What are old wars? Kaldor defines an Old War as: –Conflict over territory and sovereignty –Conflict between states. –Conflict had rules –Conflict was exclusive Examples: Napoleonic Wars, Crimean War, First World War, Second World War, Falklands War

What are new wars? New Wars are a result of the fragmentation and integration, homogenisation and diversification that followed the end of the Cold War.

Why new wars? Causes –End of the Cold War –Globalisation –Weak or failed states –Employment of technology

What are new wars? Defining new wars 1.Not ideological, but identity conflicts 2.Non-Combatants as targets 3.Inclusive conflict 4.Role of Media

What are new wars? Tactics of New Warriors: –[Ethnic] Cleansing –Solidification of identities –Criminality of conflict –Privatisation of non-state actors

New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Rwanda/Burundi (1994/1996-) Circumstances- Historic tensions between Tutsi 14% and Hutu 85% (Rwanda) Assassination of presidents in crash Radical army exiled in Uganda

Why are civil wars important for international security? Local Wars, Global Casualties Terrorism Economic ruin Famine Immigration Arms Race No-Go Areas Environmental Damage Global Civil Society

Regional Security and IOs What is the role of international organisations in maintaining security and what challenges do they face? Theoretical review –Liberal institutionalism –Neo-liberal institutionalism

Regional Security and IOs But for domestic security we should look at common security Changing role of organisations –Regional organisations today are aimed at settling intra- regional disputes. –Examples: NATO, OSCE, EU OAU ASEAN

Regional Security and IOs What right do regional organisation have to intervene in domestic conflicts? Two views –Restrictionists –Counter-restrictionists (Kaldor)

What should be the response of international community? Cosmopolitanism or neo-colonialism? –a new kind of soldier-cum-policeman –Rapid reaction –Peace-keepers as the norm Can we trust the powers-that-be to prevent conflict, when it may not be in their interest?

Does the new war hypothesis help us understand security today? Problems: –Neo-colonialism? –Categorisation? –New wars? However: –Highlights brutality of conflicts –Global dimension of area conflicts

Regional Security and IOs What can organisations do other than intervene militarily? –Non-forcible humanitarian intervention Role for regional organisations? –Yes –But, there are political problems

The End