TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 FIRST STEPS TOWARDS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT AT THE GLOBAL SCALE Rita Van Dingenen, John van Aardenne, Frank Dentener, Frank Raes,

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Presentation transcript:

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 FIRST STEPS TOWARDS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT AT THE GLOBAL SCALE Rita Van Dingenen, John van Aardenne, Frank Dentener, Frank Raes, *Antonio Soria, *Laszlo Szabor, *Peter Russ European Commission, JRC-IES Ispra (I), *JRC-IPTS Seville (E)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Rationale Mission of JRC: provide scientifically-sound support for conception, development, monitoring, … of policies at EU level. Local and short term co-benefits for non-annex 1 countries  issue in climate negotiations Kyoto flexible mechanisms: implications location of emission reductions (Climate forcing/AQ)? Hemispheric transport of pollution Increasing contribution ship/aviation emissions Difference with NEC-GP: Climate Change included

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Background JRC has developed home-expertise in –global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) –emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) –economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) Links and ongoing collaboration with –MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) –IIASA (emission scenarios) –Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 TM5 Global Chemical Transport Model Emissions: EDGAR/RAINS Meteo: ECMWF fields (3 hourly) Base resolution 6°x9° 2 step 2-way nested to 1°x1° over selected regions Krol et al., 2005 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 5, pp

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Background JRC has developed home-expertise in –global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) –emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) –economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) Links and ongoing collaboration with –MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) –IIASA (emission scenarios) –Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Emissions air pollutants and GHG on 1x1 grid by country by region Emissions by sector, country Time series of emissions Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) RIVM (NL) TNO (NL) MPI (D) JRC (EU)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Background JRC has developed home-expertise in –global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) –emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) –economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) Links and ongoing collaboration with –MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) –IIASA (emission scenarios) –Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 The POLES Model Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems Global sectoral model of world energy system. Output: –Long-term (2030, 2050) world energy outlooks (47 countries/regions) –CO 2 emission marginal abatement cost curves by region; emission trading system analysis –Technology improvement scenarios

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Background JRC has developed home-expertise in –global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) –emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) –economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) Links and ongoing collaboration with –MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) –IIASA (emission scenarios) –Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Emission inventory Atmospheric chem. + transp. Impacts Economy model Climate model POLES EDGAR RAINS TM5 ECHAM

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Very first results and developments Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants –EDGAR-POLES collaboration Global estimate of agricultural losses due to Ozone

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 EDGAR POLES Methodology: Aggregate EDGAR fuel, sector, country detail to POLES level for Yr 2000 Transfer EDGAR (aggregated) EF to POLES Include abatement in EF Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Collaboration EDGAR-POLES.

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Collaboration EDGAR-POLES. i: compoundj: country k: sectorl: process by fuel/technology m:abatement techn.t: time (year) AC: activity data EF:emission factor (no explicit abatement technology specified but application of technology included in emission factor for each year) AC: from POLES EF: from EDGARv32FT2000 Interface developed to match: j: 47 POLES regions with 240 EDGAR countries k,l : differences in fuel and sector detail (e.g. Power plants POLES vs public electricity, autoproduction, combined heat).

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (preliminary results) China: residential combustion USA: residential combustion More info: John van Aardenne, JRC-IES

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 IPCC4 Experiment II: 2030 Photocomp Scenarios/simulation S1-S5 Sim.ID emissionsMeteoDescription S1IIASA-CLE Baseline S1cIIASA-CLE sBaseline for climatological period S2IIASA-CLE IIASA current legislation S2cIIASA-CLE sIIASA current legislation for climatological period S3IIASA-MFR IIASA MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction optimistic technology scenario) S4A SRES A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario), harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000 S4sA SRES A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions S5cIIASA-CLE sClimate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for the 2020s.

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 TM5 Year 2000 averaged surface ozone Change in surface ozone 2000 – 2030 (CLE)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 First application: Economic evaluation of crop losses (2000) due to O 3 damage Approach of Wang and Mauzerall (2004), but on global scale Calculcate global 1°x1°AQ index (based on 1 hourly surface ozone concentration). AQ index: M7, W126 (for comparison with W&M) Average grids over country, weighing according to crop suitability index SI: IIASA-FAO, alternatively: GLC2000 AQ av =  (AQ*SI)/  (SI) Apply for each country exposure-yield relationship = national Relative Yield Loss (RYL) Crop Production Loss (CPL) = actual production * RYL/(1-RYL) Production data from FAO Economic cost = Local Market Price * CPL

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 WHEAT MAIZE RICE SOYBEANS Suitability index for crop cultivation (FAO/IIASA GAEZ project)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 M$

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Agricultural production losses - Due to climate change (2080, A2 scenario): all crops + lifestock (G. Fischer, IIASA) - Due to ozone (2030, CLE), 4 crops (this work)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Outlook Truly AP-CC integrated approach Scenario and emission database development (EDGAR-POLES, EDGAR-RAINS) Impact assessment and CBA Vegetation O3 flux for crops and forest trees according to ICP Modelling&Mapping recommendations for large scale IAM (generic stomatal flux, no effect of drought ) Human health O3 and PM Sector-based climate change study (EDGAR – ECHAM)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 emission scenario Climate-Chem model soil, terrain database Climate+ soil + terrain constraints for agriculture, crop distribution O3 fields and AQ indices Meteo GHG AP energy & technology scenario productiondemand trade Crop production model (Basic Linked System) POLES, IIASA EDGAR RAINS POLES ECHAM IIASA

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Development of future emission inventories POLES Energy market POLES Activity data ( sector, fuel, technology ) Air pollution emission inventory (Current, future) EDGAR (2000) EDGAR Activity data ( sector, fuel, technology ) Aggregated EDGAR Activity Air pollution emission inventory (2000) EF (s,f,t) POLES EF (s,f,t) 2000

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Increased human O 3 exposure 2000 – 2030

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Wheat sensitivity to O 3 damage

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 SRES A2 SRES B2 IIASA CLE IIASA MRF CLE Europe + Russia CLE N America CLE Asia + Oceania Projected anthropogenic emissions NOx (Tg NO 2 y -1 )

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Exposure-Yield parametrisations : From open-top chamber experiments in Europe and US

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Country 4 crops loss year 2000 (M$)fraction of GDP(2000) (India)( )(1.10%) China % Japan % Iran % Pakistan % Turkey % USA % Brazil % Italy %