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Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring Peter Bergamaschi, Frank.

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Presentation on theme: "Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring Peter Bergamaschi, Frank."— Presentation transcript:

1 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring Peter Bergamaschi, Frank Dentener, Adrian Leip, Frank Raes, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

2 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen VERIFICATION IPCC Good Practice Guidance, 2000 (Annex 2) International verification of inventories may include: –Comparison with international or independently compiled activity data, emission factors, etc. (BOTTOM-UP) –Comparison with atmosheric measurements at local, regional and global scales (TOP-DOWN, Inverse Modelling) 2006 Guidelines, chapter on cross-cutting issues (in preparation) –2006 Guidelines will not be extremely different from GPG 2000 –GPG LULUCF is considered a further development and improvement 1 2

3 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen Soil data ESB (European Soil Bureau), IES JRC 1:1,000,000 Italy 1:250k SOC Land cover CORINE Meteo MARS unit (monitoring Agriculture with remote sensing) Atmospheric N deposition: EMEP - Crop Data Eurostat (Farm Structure Survey) Disaggregated to lower level ISTAT crop data NUTS level 3 (Nomenclature of territorial Units for statistics) Fertiliser application International Fertiliser Industry Association (IFA) N2O emissions from soils in Europe 1

4 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen N2O emissions from soils in Europe 4. Climate Change Scenario Analysis Policy Support 4. Climate Change Scenario Analysis Policy Support 1. Harmonized European-wide Geographical Database 3. Results in a GIS 2. Process Based Model DNDC 2. Process Based Model DNDC

5 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen + CornDurum wheat OatsRapeseed RiceW Wheat N2O direct emissions from soils in Europe Gg N2O/yr 1997

6 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen CH 4 observationsCH 4 emissionstransport model meteo a priori inventory "big-region" inversion Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions 2

7 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen CH4 monitoring stations

8 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen a priori CH4 emissions - IIASA

9 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen CH4 emissions: a posteriori - a priori

10 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen a priori / a posteriori emissions 3.623.952.404.04 3.394.192.202.19

11 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen Conclusions: CH4 Inverse Modelling IM gives emissions consistent with atmospheric concentrations! IM suggests higher CH 4 emissions (year 2001) for some major EU-15 emitters compared to UNFCCC values (EU NIR 2003): Germany +65 % France + 46 % UK +91% EU NIR 2004: Revision of German emission: lower CH 4 emissions from Finland (wetlands) EU-15 totals close to UNFCCC (10-30 %), but …

12 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen General Conclusions: Verification BOTTOM-UP and TOP-DOWN Verification is feasible, and in some cases gives results that are robust and can be compared with official NIR’s Verification is swhown to: - provide inputs to improve inventories - build confidence in emissions estimates and trends - help to improve scientific understanding related to emission inventories (IPCC GPG 2000)

13 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

14 CH4 measurements in Schauinsland

15 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen further European stations complete set of stations ftp://ftp.ei.jrc.it/pub/bergamas/CH4BR/

16 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen top-down vs. bottom up (EU NIR 2003)

17 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen top-down vs. bottom up (EU NIR 2004)

18 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen offline atmospheric transport model meteo from ECMWF global simulation 6 o x 4 o zooming 1 o x 1 o (Europe, …) http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/ atmospheric transport model TM5

19 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen CH4 emission distribution - a posteriori

20 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen CH 4 observationsCH 4 emissionsInverse model In situ measurements satellite measurements meteo Bottom-up inventories 4D VAR data assimilation "big-region" inversion Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions

21 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen Global and European regions

22 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen EU NIR 2004 revision of German CH4 inventory 2.40 to 4.04 Tg CH 4 /yr (year 2001); revision of whole time series manure management (0.21 -> 1.31 Tg CH 4 /yr), mainly due to increased CH 4 conversion factors from liquid manure management systems consideration of manure management systems by district incorporation of smaller Bundeslaender, which in previous reports had not been included

23 Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen Forward simulation for Pallas (2002) a priori emission inventory (3 Tg CH 4 / yr from Finnish wetlands) yields much too high CH 4 mixing ratios during summer

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