1. 1 CICERO research in China on GHG and AP (co-) control in urban areas NILU, November 4 2009 Kristin Aunan Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) and Dept of Chemistry UiO 1. Environmental impact assessment and cost- benefit analyses 2. Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – ‘co-benefits’ 3. Solid household fuels and environmental impacts

2. 2 The Costs of Pollution in China SEPA/World Bank Goal: To estimate the costs of air and water pollution in China The national team: SEPA and affiliates (Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Policy Research Center of Environment and Economy, the China National Environment Monitoring Center), the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), Ministry of Health (MoH), CDC International team:World Bank, RFF (USA), ECON Pöyry, CICERO 1. Environmental impact assessment and cost-benefit analyses

3. 3 Main results of SEPA/WB project (in billion RMB) Physical Burden Economic Burden (Low) Share of GDP Economic Burden (High) 2 Share of GDP Health Impacts Outdoor Air Pollution Mortality 394,000 Premature Deaths [135,000, 628,000] 111 [35.8, 179] 0.82% 394 [136,641] 2.9% Outdoor Air Pollution Morbidity 305,000 Chronic Bronchitis Cases [266,000, 342,000] 46.4 [39.0, 53.2] 0.34% 126 [108, 142] 0.93% Water Pollution Mortality and Morbidity 9 million Diarrhea episodes; 14,000 Diarrhea Deaths Other health effects exist but could not be quantified due to lack of exposure data. 4.40.03% 14.20.11% Non-Health Impacts of Water Pollution Water Scarcity 74 Billion m 3 of water depletion and pollution 147 [95, 199] 1.1% 147 [95, 199] 1.1% Crop Loss (from Waste Water Irrigation) Wheat 4463Tonne Rice 7339 Tonne Corn 62,505 Tonne Vegetable 560,771 Tonne 6.70.05%6.70.05% Fishery Loss 1274 fishery pollution accidents 4.30.03%4.30.03% Non-Health Impacts of Air Pollution Crop Loss (from Acid Rain) Rice 15.4 Million Tonne Wheat 16.3 Million Tonne Rape 3.6 Million Tonne Cotton 0.6 Million Tonne Soya bean 3.6 Million Tonne Vegetable 203 Million Tonne 300.22%300.22% Material Damage13.6 Billion m26.70.05%6.70.05% Total356.52.64%728.95.40%

4. 4 CICERO: Quantifying health and environmental damage from air pollution

5. 5 Climate-change and air-pollution links Source link: CO 2 and the main air pollutants have the same sources Air pollutants as a climate forcing (especially tropospheric ozone and particles) Chemistry links: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs 2. Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – co-benefits

6. 6 Bottom-up study: ‘Cleaner Production’ projects in Taiyuan: CO 2 reductions and health co-benefits (ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn) Semi-bottom-up study: Energy saving and clean coal technologies in Shanxi province: CO 2 reductions and health co-benefits (ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn) Top-down study: Costs of a CO 2 tax in China using macroeconomic model (CGE), accounting for health and agricultural co-benefits and distributional effects (with the Development Research Center of the State Council)

7. 7 Implementing a CO 2 tax in China: Welfare analysis for 2010 including health benefits 1.

8. 8 …and avoided crop loss due to reduced surface ozone (NOx- ozone –crop link) ’No regrets’ CO 2 abatement: 15% - 20%

9. 9 Integrated CGE model studies

10. 10 Bottom-up study in Taiyuan: Six clean coal and energy efficiency projects Mestl, Aunan, Fang, Seip, Skjelvik and Vennemo, J. Cleaner Production, 13 (2005), 57-70. Four projects at the Iron and Steel Company District boiler house Coal briquetting factory

11. 11 Summary bottom-up studies in Shanxi: Health co-benefits of CO 2 reductions often higher than costs

12. 12 Co-control potential for project types – lessons from China’s CDM project portfolio (Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

13. 13 Co-benefit of China’s CDM portfolio 2010 (€/tCO 2 eq) (Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

14. 14 Bottom-up studies on co-benefits

15. 15 Dirty household fuels affects rural and urban health Rural China: 80%- 90% of population weighted exposure is due to indoor air pollution from solid fuels Urban China: 50- 60% 3. Solid household fuels and environmental impacts ΔPWE (μg/m 3 PM 10 ) for three abatement scenarios in mainland China: 1) Clean fuels in urban residences, 2) partial fuel switch in rural residences, and 3) IAQ standard (150 μg/m 3 ) met in all households (urban and rural)

16. 16 Solid household fuel use in China – environment and development issues

17. 17 Global 3-D chemical transport model (Oslo- CTM2): Atmospheric burden of ozone, sulfate aerosols, and carbonaceous aerosols Radiative transfer model: RF for BC, OC, and sulfate; TOA RF and global means (current and future integrated) Modeling radiative forcing (RF) resulting from solid fuel burning in developing Asia

18. 18 Net global warming? Coal: Yes (due to CO 2 primarily); Biomass: Do not know.. mWm- 2 yr Global average TOA integrated radiative forcing from emissions from solid fuel burning in Asian households (2000), 100 y time horizon (68% CI) (Aunan et al. 2009)

19. 19 Ideas for contribution to EU project General: –Health impact assessment –RF from air pollutants Study of impacts on GHG/air pollutants/population exposures from urbanization in China (e.g. alternative scenarios for transport; housing and household fuels; …) China’s low-carbon strategies (province/city-level)