1. 1 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 Frank Raes, Peter Bergamaschi, Hugh Eva, Alan Belward Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre European Commssion www.jrc.cec.eu.int User Requirements and Policy Support UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol

2. 2 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Art. 2: OBJECTIVE... stabilization greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … Art. 4: COMMITMENTS … develop … make available national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks … … promote … research, systematic observation … related to the climate system … … limit its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases …

3. 3 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC Art. 3:... Parties included in Annex I shall … reduce their overall emissions … by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012. Art. 5:… have in place (in 2007) a national system for the estimation of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks … ensure Quality … based on the work of … the IPCC and advice provided by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, the Conference of The Parties … shall regularly … revise …methodologies … COP SBSTA IPCC research community Art. 10:… co-operate in scientific … research and promote the maintenance and the development of systematic observations systems … related to the climate system

4. 4 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 EU POLICY FRAMEWORK Implementation of UNFCCC and future Kyoto Protocol DG ENVIRONMENT is in charge DG ENVIRONMENT implements - monitoring and reporting of emission reductions - national system under the KP and related QA/QC programme Monitoring Mechanism for Community CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions DG XXX implements specific reduction policies in sector XXX DG RESEARCH is delegated to implement - climate change research Framework Programmes - climate observations systems e.g. GMES

5. 5 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 MS EEA EU=  MS DG ENVUNFCCC JRC EUROSTAT … Research GMES... UNFCCC guidelines EU “NATIONAL” SYSTEM and QA/QC

6. 6 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 Emission inventories for (UNFCCC) - CO2, ……….. NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2 Trends of emissions for (less demanding)(KP) - CO2, … Inventories - aggregated at country level - yearly averaged - for a wide range of sectors (35 in total) Inventories must be of high quality: i.e - submitted timely (of year N by 15 April of year N+1) - consistent in time - complete (all sectors, all years, all countries) - comparable (among countries) - accurate (verification with other independent methods) - cost-effective USER REQUIREMENTS

7. 7 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 UNFCCC Common Reporting Format

8. 8 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 Highest contributors to the overall uncertainty on the EU GHG inventory: CO2 sink CH4 and N2O from agriculture APPROACHES - Compare and harmonize methodologies of individual countries - Develop a EU-wide methodology for verification of national and EU emissions inventories EXAMPLES of JRC activities: - CH4 emissions by Inverse Modeling - Workshop on Inverse Modeling, Oct 2003 - Monitoring of Land Use Change IMPROVING DATA QUALITY

9. 9 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 Relative error: 1.00 ± 0.30 Uncertainty: 2 sigma CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling a priori data

10. 10 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling

11. 11 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 offline atmospheric transport model meteo from ECMWF global simulation 6 o x 4 o zooming 1 o x 1 o (Europe, …) http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/ TM5 model grid CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling

12. 12 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 observations: UBA / GAW CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling

13. 13 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 Units: relative to a priori estimates A priori: 1.00 ± 0.30 Uncertainty: 2 sigma CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling posteriori data

14. 14 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 CONCLUSIONS - by scientists (Peter Bergamaschi) - Techniques improved to the point that estimates of national emission are possible for CH4, N2O, HFC’s - Inverse Modeling includes biogenic emissions, which usually are not in the official inventories (e.g. UNFCCC) - Inverse Modeling of CO2 aims at biospheric emissions/sinks estimates; anthropogenic emissions well known - Most advanced studies are based on in-situ measurements; Need for maintaining monitoring stations; set up a European framework - Use of remote sensing is presently a problem as the column concentrations of trace gases (CH4,CO2) don’t have the required precision (< 1%) - Need to integrate in-situ, remote sensing and modeling - Inverse Modeling gives a consistent picture of emissions and atmospheric concentrations JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop

15. 15 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 CONCLUSIONS - by policy makers - Need independent verification - To be worth the investment IM must have a higher precision than the conventional (bottom-up) approaches - Need for better understanding of the capabilities and costs - Follow workshop in spring 2005 3 2 1 emission probability JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop

16. 16 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 1989 1992 1997 Monitoring De- & Reforestation

17. 17 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 THE SECOND REPORT ON THE ADEQUACY OF THE GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE IN SUPPORT OF THE UNFCCC by the GCOS secretariat for the IPCC http://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/gcoshome.html april 2003 essential climate variables of high impact on UNFCCC requirements a.o.: Atmospheric composition: CO2, CH4, O3, other long-lived GHG aerosol properties Systematic Observations

18. 18 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004 Post Kyoto … ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION STRATEGIES ? Reduction of fossil fuel use and related CO2 emissions remains the primary goal. At present it is politically difficult to implement Evaluate additional ways to reduce global warming, considering that conventional short-lived air pollutants like ozone and black carbon aerosols also have a warming effect, Need to integrate climate change and air pollution policies.