DRR Programme Strategy and Implementation Framework World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO DRR Programme Strategy and Implementation Framework With linkages to climate change adaptation By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO 1st Meeting of the Task Team on “Meteorological Services for Improved Humanitarian Planning and Response 31 August – 2 September 2010 www.wmo.int

About WMO

World Meteorological Organization Specialized Scientific and Technical Agency of the UN Non-resident agency 189 Members Governing bodies: Congress and Executive Council WMO Secretariat based in Geneva Works with research community, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, Space Agencies of its Members

WMO Governance and Institutional Structure 10 Technical Programmes WMO Secretariat (Geneva) Global/ Regional World Weather Watch (WWW), World Climate Programme (WCP) Atmospheric Research & Environment Prog (AREP) Applications of Meteorology Prog (AMP) Hydrology & Water Resources Prog (HWRP) Education & Training Programme (ETR) Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) Regional Programme (RP)P WMO Space Programme (SAT) Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR) 3 World Meteorological Centres (WMC) 6 Regional Association (platform for consultations and consensus) 189 Members ‘National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) Global Climate Centers & Regional Climate Centers 8 Technical Commissions CBS CHy CCl CAS CIMO CAeM CAgM JCOMM 40 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMC) 30 Regional Training Centres (RMTC)

Natoinal Operational forecasting systems WMO Coordinates International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme (with UNESCO/OIC, ICSU), World Weather Research Programme Natoinal Operational forecasting systems Northern Atlantic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation UNFCCC negotiations IPCC Assessments 5

WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation: Coordinates Operation Meteorological Network to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 189 Members

Presentations WIGOS/WIS (D. Thomas, M. Berechree) RSMCs, RCCs and Drought Monitoring Centres (P. Chen, K., Kolli, L. Malone, R. Stefansky) Global Framework for Climate Services (L. Malone) WMO Service Delivery Framework (H. kootval, W. Grabs, P. Chen, L. Malone, M. Golnaraghi) Regional Training Centres (J. Willson) Role of Technical Commissions (G. Fleming, A. Pietroniro, G. Van Langenhove, S. Mason, R. Martinez)

Example of how the Operational WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Since a devastating cyclone in 1991 killed an estimated 139,000 people throughout Bangladesh, the coastline has been studded with concrete shelters raised on 12-foot pillars to allow tidal surges to flow beneath. The government also honed its early warning systems and set up a volunteer network to assist with evacuations. Year Death toll Name Area 1942 61000 West Sundarbans 1961 11000 Megna Eestuary 1963 11500 Chittagong, Noakhali 1965 36000 Barisal district 1965 12047 1970 300000 Bhola Khulna, Chittagong 1985 10000 Urir, Jabbar, Bata, Darbesh, Clark, Sudharam, Hatia, Sand Wip Islands + Patuakhali, Bhola, North Chittagong, Feni, Noakhali districts 1991 138866 Gorky Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, Barguna 8

The Climate Information Challenge to Support Climate Adaptation – What is WMO doing? Montreal Exeter ECMWF Moscow Seoul Beijing Toulouse Tokyo Washington Lead Centre for LRFMME Pretoria Melbourne Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) Lead Centre for SVSLRF SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Background on the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) (L. Malone) CLW/CLPA/WCAS

Simplified Schematic of Linkages Climate Adaptation Multi-sectoral planning and risk management Climate Mitigation Emission reduction Incremental cumulative risk Disaster Risk Management Meteorological, Hydrological and climate extremes Geological

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … Leverage WMO research and Operational Capacities to Address Information Challenge in DRM at all levels

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Number of events Loss of life Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Between 1980 and 2007, nearly 8500 natural disasters worldwide have taken the lives of nearly 2 million people and produced economic losses over 1.2 trillion US dollars. Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters reveal that, of this total, some 90 per cent of the natural disasters, 70 per cent of casualties and 75 per cent of economic losses were caused by weather-, climate- or water-related hazards such as droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges, extreme temperatures, land slides, wild fires or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to the meteorological and hydrological conditions. Economic losses 90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. 12

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses Important effect of the 2005 Tsunami in geophysical loss of life in Asia and Pacific region, (226 000) as well as the Earthquake in Pakistan in 2005 (73 000) Of the Economic losses in Asia due to Geophisical hazards, Earthquakes in Japan account for two thirds Hydrometeorological: Drought, Extreme temperature, Flood, Slides, Wild fires, Windstorm, Epidemic, Insects Geological: Earthquakes, Volcano, Tsunami Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 13

Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise ! Disasters impacts many sectors! Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Energy Aral Sea Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Agriculture Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Caucasus: floods, droughts and landslides Central Asia: floods, droughts, avalanches and landslides 10 % of the total population of Central Asia has been affected by disasters in the last 10 years, 2500 died Sand and dust storm Hot spots: Tadjikistan and Fergana Valley Projected Impact of Climate change (IPCC) Caucasus: increase in temperature, increase of heatwaves, precipitation intensity, and precipitation per extreme events will increase, runoff will decraese Decrease in reservoir water levels itensifying landslides, increase of droughts and precipitations Black Sea level to rise Increase snow melt causing flask floods Central Asia Glacier melting Decrease in mean annual precipitation, increase in the frequency of very dry spring, summer and automn seasons Crop yield could decrease up to 30 % Changes in runoff could have significant effect on powe output of hydropower generating countries Increase in temnperature will increase the probability of avalanches and mudflows Main economic sectors linked to HydoMet and climate Hydropower and dam management Georgia 70 % HydroPower dependant Kazakhstan possesses 5 operational hydroelectric plants which provide roughly 12% of the electricity generation. Tajikistan and Kirghizstan (90 % of hydroelec) Agriculture Agriculture (20-30 % of GDP in all countries except Kazakhstan) Importance of irrigation for cotton production, large irrigation infrastructure Water Kirghistan and Tadjikistan generate 70 % of the water of the whole Central Asia Kazahkstan, Ouzbekistan and Turkmenistan have large irrigated areas depending on these water resources Transportation Landlocked countries Drought Need for Multi-sectoral risk management Heatwaves Frequency

Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!) In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan) New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues) International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological, hydrological and climate services!

Development of WMO DRR Strategic priorities approved by CG XIV Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners WMO’s strategic goals in Disaster Risk Reduction are derived from Hyogo Framework for Action, pertaining to those high priority areas that fall under the mandate of WMO and NMHSs. WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction 16

WMO DRR Programme Framework Derived from HFA (2005-2015) Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency) 1 Risk Assessment Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Preparedness (saving lives): early warning systems emergency planning and response Prevention (Reduction of economic losses): Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) 2 CATastrophe insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives 5 3 Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders. 4 Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training across agencies 6 17

WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction Approved by WMO Congress - XV To implement WMO DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results: Modernized NMHSs and observing networks. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities to support risk reduction and risk transfer. Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and other disaster risk management stakeholders. Trained management and staff of NMHS Enhanced ministerial and public awareness On the basis of a consultative process approved by EC Member and regional requirements and priorities have been identified systematically in disaster risk reduction and used to develop a DPM Action plan is being developed based on synergistic activities of WMO Programmes, Commissions, Members and Partners . This Action plan is being implemented through regionla and national projects with the following end results,

Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks Number of lives at risk $ at risk Destruction of buildings and infrastructure Reduction in crop yields Business interruption Impacts: population density agricultural land urban grid Infrastructure Businesses Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Need for historical and real time data Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis tools Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information

Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 1 2 Early warning systems involve four elements, which need to be supported by governance, coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels, and by appropriate infrastructure. These four elements include: Observing, detecting and developing hazard forecasts and warnings; Assessing the potential risks and integrating risk information in the warning messages; Distributing, rapidly and reliably, understandable warnings to authorities, risk managers and the population at risk; Emergency preparedness and response to warnings at all relevant levels to minimize the potential impacts. 3 4

There is need for investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems ! 1 National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Local Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4 warnings warnings 4 feedback feedback 3 5 5 Community Prepared Capacity Development and Coordinated National Technical Agencies 2 4 Effective early warning systems require: Strong support from the government and alignment of policies, planmning, legislation, resources across different levels of the government Coordination among national technical services for monitoring, detecting, forecasting and development and issuance of issuance of authoritative warnings that take vulenrabilities and exposure of elements into account Authoritative and reliable dissemination channel to authorities at national to lovcal level and public Community emergency preparedness measures and ability to activate Feedback mechanism Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach to ensure: Leveraging Resources and Capacities Cost-effectiveness Inter-operability Maintenance and sustainability Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) warnings feedback 5 21

Example: Documentation of Good Practices and develop Guidelines for Institutional Partnerships in Early Warning Systems Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles of NMHS Synthesis of First set of 7 Good Practices (4 more in the pipeline) Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Japan Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System France “Vigilance System” Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Germany The Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst First EWS Publication of a series being published in 2010 and together with a technical WMO guidelines. Next Phase: Concept of Operations and Service Delivery Issues

…. to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities …. to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Infrastructure and Urban planning Land zoning Insurance / Finance Agricultural productivity and food security Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management

Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms Which Risks? What type of Financial tools? Who Could Benefit? Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? Financial risks CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other emerging products Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Government Companies Individuals Other WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html 24

Systematically linking know-how, capacity development to national and regional projects Monitoring and Evaluation Training, Institutional Capacities Building, sharing good practices and lessons learnt linked to projects National and Regional Projects Implementation of end-to-end projects, Identification and Documentation of Good Practices and learning Lessons Development of Guidelines based on Lessons Learnt

Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process Example of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Risk Reduction (Many other examples exist) DECISION MAKERS Emergency Services Government Authorities Insurance Public, Media Local – National Government Insurance Suppliers Public, Media Urban planners Local to national Governments Banks Insurance Negotiators Parlimentarian Local/nationalgovernments Private sector Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds Strategic Planning Building codes Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting Land Zoning and Planning International negotiations and agreements National policies and legilation DECISIONS Emergency planning activation and response Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses SERVICES Future Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process Short to medterm weather forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Next hour to 10 days Decade Season to year Long term Scenarios

DRR Programme Implementation Strategy

WMO DRR Implementation Strategy: Development of regional and sub-regional strategies: Challenges of NMHS (providers of Services) to meet DRM demands? WMO DRR Survey 2006 Other WMO national assessments carried out since 2006-present Institutional Capacities and Receptivity of DRM Stakeholders (Users of Services ) to NMHS Surveys conducted by UN-ISDR, UNDP, the World Bank, regional partners and others (2006 – forward) Challenges for engaging NMHS with the DRM stakeholders (Institutionally and Operationally)?

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 14/19 74 % 24/52 54 % 74% + response rate http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html 29

Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: Another view Under estimated Category Planning & Legislation Infrastructure: Observation Forecasting Telecom. Data, Analysis and Technical Capacities Partnerships & Concept of Operations % countries 1 Need for development in all areas 12 2 Need for improvements in all areas 42 3 Self sufficient Need for improvements in these areas 26 4 Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines 20 Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM! 30

65% NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure Major challenges for NMHS to be addressed Systematically through DRR Implementation Strategy: another view 70% of countries need amendments or restructuring of their national policies and legislation Reflection of the role of NMHS in policies, legislation, plans 65% NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure Observations, forecasting systems, communication, data management, etc 80% NMHS need technical and management training : Hazard data bases, mapping and analysis and (meteorological, hydrological and climate) forecasting tools, 80% of NMHS need strengthening or building multi-sectoral institutional partnerships, coordination and service delivery e.g., emergency services, infrastructure and planning, etc)

Project Identification Reporting & Evaluation Long-term strategy with phased project implementation approach Project Identification Planning Expansion Each cycle 1 – 2 years Implementation Sustainability Reporting & Evaluation

Criteria for DRR Project Development (1) Alignment with WMO disaster risk reduction strategic goals Built on priorities, requirements and needs of Members at regional, sub-regional, or country-grouping levels Projects have national development complemented with regional cooperation (4) Involve integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and external partners’ expertise and resources) (5) Result-based approach (Outcomes, deliverables, timelines) (6) Must be scalable and ensure sustainability of capacities overtime (7) Ensure end-to-end solutions to the Members leading to better decision-making capacities (8) Well defined resource mobilization strategy for implementation

Building Close Relationship and Track Record with Implementing Partners and Strategic Donors… Identifying strategic partners and building long-term relationship: Identification and understanding of the priorities of strategic partners Their engagement in the project development from the early stages Fund raising strategy Fund-raising opportunities for strengthening of the NMHS through the post disaster humanitarian and development mechanisms Flash Appeal (was used for upgrade of GTS in Indian Ocean, now for Haiti) Post Disaster Needs Assessment and Country reconstruction plan (first time for Haiti) Long-term coordination with donors Bilateral Multilateral Development Banks, etc..

Engage in regional cooperation projects with strategic partners that influence National/Regional DRR Programmes, Capacities and Funding Partners Agency Type Coordination National DRR Implementation Funding World Bank (GFDRR) Development X ISDR UNDP WFP, FAO Agriculture UN-OCHA, IFRC, UNICEF, UNOSAT, UNHCR, WFP, UNDP, WHO Humanitarian Donors (EC, bi-laterals) Donor Regional Centers and agencies 35

Two Types of National/Regional DRR Projects initiated (2007 – Present) (Potential Pilots) Type I: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO Central Asia and Caucasus (2009 – ongoing) Special project: WMO Shanghai MH-EWS Demo South East Europe (2007- present) South East Asia (early 2010 – ongoing) Central America and Caribbean (2010- ) SADC (2011 -) Type II: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in end-to-end Multi-Hazard EWS

Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters