Towards Sustainable Universal Access Siven Naidoo Meeting of the Technical Group and the Sherpas of the Secretary-General’s High-level Group On Sustainable Energy for All 18 th November 2011 OFID Headquarters Vienna, Austria 2015/10/091

Overview Personal Perspective –Energy Efficiency 2008, –Urbanisation and shack-dwellings, –Poverty and Electropreneurship, Energy Access and Climate Resilience Energy Access and Adaptation and Mitigation South Africa’s IRP 2010 – 2030 Water Electrification Conclusions 2

Urbanisation and consequences 3

Energy Access Builds Climate Resilience 4  Job creation – directly and indirectly  SMME development and economic growth  Air quality improvement – local and indoor – replacement of coal and wood  Improvement in Education and skills levels  Access to modern communications systems  Improved security  Safety – paraffin burns and poisoning  Health care through lighting, refrigeration, communications  The “external” benefits far exceed the costs

Access, mitigation and adaptation – the sustainability nexus 5 The negative impacts of Climate Change will be experienced no matter how successful mitigation actions are African nations are the most vulnerable to these impacts The improvement of the resilience of energy systems is essential to Adaptation The development of advanced infrastructure improves resilience Energy access improves resilience Adaptation and mitigation are two sides of the same coin – especially for Africa

Potential Energy Future – 2030! 6 CONGO GABON KENYA BURUNDI ZAMBIA MOZAMBIQUE MALAWI TANZANIA ANGOLA BOTSWANA DR CONGO NAMIBIA ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO SWAZILAND HYDRO GAS COAL GEO-THERMAL WIND SUPER GRID NUCLEAR WIND The Southern African Development Community (SADC) region offers significant avenues for growth and cleaner sources of power Significant demand growth and constrained capacity represent an investment opportunity SOLAR

Percentage energy mix (system grows from ~42GW to ~ 85GW) 2015/10/09 7

Percentage of new build – (~43GW new capacity) 2015/10/09 8

Specific Challenge: Water Dry cooling - Kendal and Matimba Power Stations(each 6 x 665 MW) 9

Total water usage is decreasing until 2030, and water-usage intensity is reduced by ~60% 10 Water consumption in billion liters p.a. Base Case Revised Balanced Scenario Policy-Adjusted IRP 1,3 l/kWh0,52 l/kWh0,94 l/kWh -60% Water-usage intensity of Policy-Adjusted IRPPolicy-Adjusted IRP

Specific Challenge: Access to Energy Electrification in South Africa Added ~4.5 million households to the grid since 1994 – the majority using prepayment technology Electrification has significantly increased from 1994 to today: –Nationally from 30% to 83% in Urban areas –Rural electrification from 12% to 57% –Limited success with stand alone solar home systems –Focus on schools and clinics Funded initially through the electricity tariff, then from the fiscus Protection for the poor through Free Basic Electricity Still a significant backlog of 2.5m – 3m households without access to electricity – cost of $5 – 7bn 11

Conclusions 12 Energy Access is a key enabler of sustainable economic growth and development (noting security of supply, efficient production and delivery and efficient end-use) There are opportunities for Energy Access, adaptation and mitigation to complement one another Major low carbon energy access opportunities exist in Africa All of the above strongly justify the use of development, carbon and adaptation funds to finance key energy access infrastructure. Public and private sector funds can be blended and leveraged to effect sustainable energy access globally Specific Eskom and South African experiences, for example, the Accelerated Electrification Programme, the CFL rollout and the SWH Programme may have potential to be replicated (perhaps optimised) and implemented in partnership elsewhere.

Message from Sherpa – Dr Steve Lennon 13 I think we need to emphasise the need for a national electrification plan which identifies the status quo, quantifies the gap to universal access, then details how that gap will be closed. This must include major infrastructure (ie Tx and Dx) as well as all supply side options – not just renewables. Then it needs to include a roll out plan with indicative costs and sources of funding. For very poor countries a lot of the basic infrastructure – supply and delivery – will need very soft money – mainly grants. The plan also needs to include institutional capacity required – what, where, who. I suggest the team work on a typical template for such a plan with the objective being for that plan being sufficiently detailed for it to act as a funding prospectus to DFIs, banks and the private sector.

Thank you 14