1. ISF:RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY THINK. CHANGE. DO INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030. Report for Greenpeace Africa. Jay Rutovitz, 18th August 2010

2.  Introduction to ISF  Overview of analysis  The energy scenarios  Methodology  Employment results South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030

3. Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF)  Research institute at University of Technology Sydney, set up in 1996, with mission: To create change towards a sustainable future through independent, project-based research ISF undertook analysis of the employment effects of the Greenpeace International Energy [R]evolution:  Working for the Climate, Greenpeace International, 2009, and Energy sector jobs to 2030: a global analysis, Jay Rutovitz and Alison Atherton, 2009 Greenpeace Africa asked us to analyse the employment effects of the South African Energy [R]evolution.

4. Overview of our analysis  ISF analysed SA Energy [R]evolution for Greenpeace Africa, looking at three scenarios  Business as usual case derived from IEA 2007 projection  Energy [R]evolution scenario, which achieves 60% emissions reduction by 2050  Added in the Growth Without Constraints scenario (from Long Term Mitigation Scenarios)  We included one scenario with enhanced renewable manufacturing, and export to the rest of Africa  Electricity sector jobs only  Direct jobs only (does not include jobs in accommodation, catering, or from spending wages)

5. The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030 2010 2015 2020 2030 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 IEAGWC[R]evolutionIEA GWC[R]evolution IEA GWC[R]evolution IEA GWC[R]evolution Electricity TWh/ year CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableEfficiency

6. The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030 2010 2015 2020 2030 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 IEAGWC[R]evolutionIEA GWC[R]evolution IEA GWC[R]evolution IEA GWC[R]evolution Electricity TWh/ year CoalGas, oil & dieselNuclearRenewableEfficiency Renewable electricity in 2030 Energy [R]evolution GWC IEA REF 36% 1% 4% Greenhouse emissions 2030 compared to 2010 Energy [R]evolution GWC IEA REF - 21% + 48% + 47%

7. Methodology - inputs  Employment factors (jobs per MW) UNCERTAINTY  SA factors where possible, otherwise OECD factors + multiplier.  Adjustment for cost decline.  Energy efficiency job factor (only for the reduction in electricity consumption) - Includes a proportion of energy efficiency achieved by solar water heating

8. Employment factors – key inputs  Construction jobs per megawatt (MW) capacity increase  Operations and maintenance (O&M) jobs per MW installed  Fuel jobs per gigawatt hour (GWh) - For coal this means coal mining jobs per GWh  South African factors for –Coal mining –Coal construction –Coal, nuclear and hydro generation O&M –Solar water heating

9. Employment factor - adjustment from OECD  Labour intensity tends to be higher in countries with lower GDP per capita.  One method: multiply OECD factors by the ratio of labour productivity* in SA to labour productivity in the OECD. This would mean multiplying by 4.6.  We used the weighted average of the ratio between local factors and OECD employment factors, which is 2.15.  Conservative approach. * GDP per person employed

10. 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 201020202030201020202030201020202030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Gas Coal Coal exports JOBS Coal exports Jobs in the energy sector - results

11. 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 201020202030201020202030201020202030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Gas Coal Coal exports JOBS Coal exports IEA REF + 27% 31,900 jobs 6,700 jobs Compared toGWC+ 5%

12. What if we don’t include coal exports? 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 201020202030201020202030201020202030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Gas Coal Coal exports JOBS Coal exports IEA REF + 27% 31,900 jobs 6,700 jobs Compared toGWC+ 5%

13. Jobs excluding coal exports 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 201020202030201020202030201020202030 IEA Reference Growth Energy [R]evolution Without Constraints Efficiency Efficiency - SWH Ocean Solar thermal Geothermal PV Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear Oil & diesel Gas Coal Coal exports JOBS Coal exports IEA REF + 49% Compared to 46,900 jobs 21,700 jobs GWC+ 18%

14. Growth Without Constraints Total jobs 70,000 Renewable 3% of jobs IEA Reference Total jobs 74,000 Renewable 7% of jobs Energy [R]evolution Total jobs 113,000 Renewable 51% of jobs Renewable and total jobs at 2020* * Excluding coal exports

15. Enhanced manufacturing scenario  Standard analysis assumes 20% components for all energy technologies are manufactured in South Africa  In enhanced scenario increased to 50% by 2030 (70% for solar water heating)  Assumes South Africa exports components for 30% of the growth in renewable energy in the rest of Africa by 2030

16. Energy [R]evolution with enhanced manufacturing – jobs results 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 201020202030201020202030201020202030201020202030 Manufacturing exports Construction and manufacturing Efficiency Coal exports Fuel Operations and maintenance JOBS Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution enhanced manufacturing Growth Without Constraints IEA Reference IEA REF + 56% 65,600 jobs 40,400 jobs 33,700 jobs GWC + 28% Compared to

17. Conclusion  The Energy [R]evolution has the potential to create more employment than business as usual.  Substantial benefit compared to the IEA reference scenario, net increase of 78,000 jobs by 2030 (46,000 in the IEA Reference).  Even if SA does not take action to reduce greenhouse gases, coal exports are vulnerable to action elsewhere.  Developing a strong renewable sector ‘future proofs’ SA economy; enhanced renewable scenario 56% compared to business as usual.  South Africa needs to decide whether to be an importer or an exporter of renewable technology in coming decades.