UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION A PRIMER

EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKE PUBLIC POLICY IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN, OR A WAY OF WORKING TOGETHER TO REDUCE EARTHQUAKE RISK WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC & PRIVATE ASSETS.

PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT, AND ENTERPRISE IN THE COMMUNITY

EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD BEGIN WITH A VISION OF THE GOAL AND REALISTIC STRATEGIES FOR REACHING IT.

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK QUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS

IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS

FAULTS: SAN ANDREAS

MOTAGUA FAULT, GUATEMALA

FAULTS: DEAD SEA RIFT ZONE

FAULTS: COCOS PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

TECTONIC DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SITE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES,” WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS.

EXPOSURE MODEL EXPOSURE MODEL LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

VULNERABILITY MODEL VULNERABILITY MODEL QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM

UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS INTENSITY REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME VVIVIIVIIIIX MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING

SUN-DRIED BRICKS: BAM, IRAN: DECEMBER 26, 2003

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE EARTHQUAKE: EXPOSURE: PEOPLE BUILDING STOCK INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE

RISK ASSESSMENT: ALGIERS WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HAZARDS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HAZARDS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTS ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTS ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTSEARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE EVENT VULNERABILITY PEOPLE PROPERTY INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE EXPOSURE EXPECTED LOSS

OUTPUT HIGH RISK BUILDINGS HIGH RISK AREAS GEOLOGIC, SOILS, AND SLOPES LAND USE LAND USE CONSTRUCTION TYPES CONSTRUCTION TYPES SPECIAL BUILDINGS SPECIAL BUILDINGS RISK ASSESSMENT 1. DATA 2. EVALUTION NEEDS FOR LOSS- REDUCTION MEASURES

DAMAGE INJURIES UNACCEPTABLE RISK COLLAPSE DEATHS LOSS OF FUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSS RISKRISK

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES) COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ENCOMPASSES PREVENTION, MITIGATION,AND PREPAREDNESS; MONITORING, FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS; EMERGENCY RESPONSE; RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION POLICIES RECOVERY & RECONSTR. ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATED PREVENTION & MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE COMMUNITY SCALE

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES PREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS) PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE) PREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS) PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)

PREVENTION BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILD- ING COLLAPSE. PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION FOR LIFELINES. BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILD- ING COLLAPSE. PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION FOR LIFELINES.

AVOIDANCE LAND USE REGULATIONS FACILITATE AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT- ION

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES SITE MODIFICATION REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS HAZARD FORECASTS QUAKE SCENARIOS RESPONSE TO THE EARTHQUAKE, MON- ITORING, HAZARD FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS. SITE MODIFICATION REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS HAZARD FORECASTS QUAKE SCENARIOS RESPONSE TO THE EARTHQUAKE, MON- ITORING, HAZARD FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS.

SITE MODIFICATION ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMEDIATION) CAN PREVENT LIQUEFACTION

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING

WARNING SYSTEMS FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE 10,000 DEAD 20,000 INJURED 300,000 HOMELESS NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE POLITICAL CHAOS 10,000 DEAD 20,000 INJURED 300,000 HOMELESS NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE POLITICAL CHAOS

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE 10,000 DEAD 20,000 INJURED 300,000 HOMELESS NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE POLITICAL CHAOS 10,000 DEAD 20,000 INJURED 300,000 HOMELESS NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE POLITICAL CHAOS

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE THAT LEFT 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1971 SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKE LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKE MASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND RECOVERY PERIODS.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKE A “TENT CITY” PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY THE GOAL IS “RESTORATION TO NORMAL” EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY THE GOAL IS “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: 1988 SPITAK EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE MORE THAN ”RESTOR- ATION TO NORMAL.” IT SHOULD BE LINKED WITH PREVENTION/ RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE MORE THAN ”RESTOR- ATION TO NORMAL.” IT SHOULD BE LINKED WITH PREVENTION/

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE 80,000 DEAD 30,000 INJURED 300,000 HOMELESS 25 MILLION BUILDINGS DAMAGED 45 MILLION PEOPLE AFFECTED 80,000 DEAD 30,000 INJURED 300,000 HOMELESS 25 MILLION BUILDINGS DAMAGED 45 MILLION PEOPLE AFFECTED

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS,” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD.

THE VISION OF THE END IS DISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN EVERY COMMUNITY.