2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS IRAN PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. IRAN

4. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN IRAN FLOODS WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES LANDSLIDES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

5. Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric interactions cause EARTHQUAKES

6. TECTONIC PLATES

7. IRAN: INTERACTION OF ARABIAN —ANATOLIAN---EURASIAN PLATES

8. Iran has a long history of destructive earthquakes, which have left at least 126,000 dead during the 20 th and 21 st centuries.

9. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, cyclones,..) intersect at a point in space and time.

10. Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

11. THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen

12. THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure that are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards will be LOST.

13. THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions.

14. THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of emergency situations that can occur.

15. THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

16. TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

17. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

18. IRAN’S COMMINITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK QUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

19. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

20. IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK

21. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTH- QUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

22. WHAT WILL HAPPEN? EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

23. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS

24. Iran has many well-known seismically active faults, which have generated devastating earthquakes in recent years, including a M6.6 earthquake in 2003 that destroyed the city of Bam and killed more than 26,000 people

25. REGIONAL SEISMICITY

26. LOCAL SEISMICITY

27. EXPOSURE MODEL EXPOSURE MODEL LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

28. HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN AN EARTHQUAKE A communities people, property, essential and critical infrastructure, business enterprise, and government centers.

29. UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS INTENSITY REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME VVIVIIVIIIIX 3530 25 20 15 10 5 0 MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING

30. VULNERABILITY MODEL VULNERABILITY MODEL QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM

31. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTH- QUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

32. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTH- QUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

33. SOME OF IRAN’S MANY NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES M6.6 BAM: DECEMBER 26, 2003 M6.4 TABRIZ: AUG. 11, 2012 M6.3 TABRIZ: AUG. 11. 2012

34. BAM EARTHQUAKE: DECEMBER 26, 2003

35. CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: BEFORE EARTHQUAKE:

36. CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: BEFORE M6.6 EARTHQUAKE

37. CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: AFTER EARTHQUAKE

39. IMPACTS The Bam earthquake was particularly destructive, with 26,271 dead and 30,000 injured.

40. EXACERBATING FACTORS Iran’s earthquake specialists knew that the mud bricks of the citadel, a historical cultural heritage, did NOT comply with earthquake regulations set in 1989, but the mud bricks, a fact of life, could not be adequately strengthened..

41. EXACERBATING FACTORS The high morbidity and mortality tolls were exacerbated by the fragility of the mud brick construction materials.

42. INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE: Many nations, including the USA, offered assistance and resources.

43. TWIN MODERATE-MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES STRIKE IRAN SATURDAY, AUGUST 11, 2012

44. LOCATION MAP

45. THE EARTHQUAKES (Source: US Geological Survey) Saturday's first quake of M6.4 struck just before 5 pm 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of Tabriz at a depth of 9.9 km (6.2 miles). Saturday’s second quake of M6.3 struck 49 km (30 miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a similar depth.

46. The earthquakes struck in East Azerbaijan province, a mountainous region that neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia to the north and is predominantly populated by ethnic Azeris, a minority group.

47. INITIAL IMPACTS Over 1,000 villages were affected, with over 5,000 buildings in 100 villages partially or totally destroyed as concrete-block and mud-brick buildings collapsed. At least 20 villages could not be reached because of impassable roads. People in some villages were in dire need of food and drinking water.

48. VARZAGHAN: DAMAGE

50. INITIAL IMPACTS Over 300 dead (more likely), with over 60 percent being women and children, partly due to the time of day (5 PM) that the quake struck. Over 1,800 injured.

51. INITIAL IMPACTS (continued) 36,000 people in the quake-hit area were provided with emergency shelter. Many slept on the street and in parks. A field hospital set up in Varzaghan on Sunday to treat the injured was staffed by just two doctors, who, because of shortages of medical supplies and food, were hard pressed to meet the emergency medical needs.

52. INITIAL IMPACTS (continued) Hospitals in Tabriz (49 km distance) took in many of the injured from the surrounding villages. Water, electricity, and phone lines in the Varzaghan area were all down, further hindering rescue efforts Preliminary loss estimate: $650 million USD

53. VARZAGHAN: INITIAL S & R MOSTLY BY RESIDENTS; AUG 11 th

54. A CONTROVERSIAL DECISION Search and rescue was stopped after 24 hours and a 2-day period of mourning started

55. THIS DISASTER EXPOSED POLICY FLAWS UN—PROTECTED UN—PREPARED UN--ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY

56. FACT: VILLAGE HOUSES WITH LITTLE OF NO EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE COLLAPSED, INCREASINGING DEATHS AND INJURIES The 5 pm occurrence) instead of a 10 pm occurrence) likely reduced the number of deaths.

57. FACT: KNOWING WHERE THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS ARE AND BEING UNPREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE EARTHQUAKES LEADS TO UNNECESSAY DISASTERS

58. FACT: EVEN THE WORLD’S BEST FIRST RESPONDERS, FIND THAT COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, IMPASSABLE ROADS, AFTERSHOCKS, and NIGHTFALL WILL SLOW SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS AND HINDER EMERGENCY RESPONSE

59. IRANIAN RED CRESCENT WILLING TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL AID "We would welcome help by any country," said Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, during his visit to the earthquake-stricken area on Tuesday, August 14th.

60. RED CRESCENT ASSETS DEPLOYED 1,100 Red Crescent workers were deployed with 44,000 food packages and 5,600 tents for survivors needing temporary shelter.

61. IRAN’S NEXT EARTHQUAKE IS INEVITABLE BUT, EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE DREAM!