When everything meets everything Webmanagers Roundtable Lee Rainie – Director PIP

Steve Bartman’s journey

Home media capacity Product Route to home Display Local storage TV stations phone TVCassette/ 8-track broadcast TV radio broadcast radio stereoVinyl album Local news mail Advertising newspaper delivery phone Radio Stations non-electronic Tom Wolzein, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

Home media capacity – now Product Route to home Display Local storage cableVCR TV stations phone/DSLTV Info wirelessradioDVD “Daily me” broadcast TVPCWeb-based storage contentServer/ TiVo (PVR) Cable Nets broadcast radiostereoPC Web sites satellitemonitor Local news mailheadphonesCD/CD-ROM Content from express deliverypager individuals iPod / storageMP3 player / iPod Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFIcell phonepagers - PDAs Advertising newspaper deliveryphonecable box Radio stationsPDA/Palmgame console game console Satellite radionon-electronicStorage sticks/disks Adopted from Tom Wolzein, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

Being online is the norm – but it is not universal 9/11 attacks 67%

Broadband adoption 58 million

Portrait of Access: Late 2002

Portrait of Access: March 2005

Expectations are skyrocketing

Fragmented media environment (% of all Americans who “regularly” go to news source: PRC People/Press)

People’s media-use habits are changing The proportion of each group who say these channels are main sources of political news for them* Non-internet users All internet users Those with broadband at home Television85%75%70% Fox News Cable Channel15%21% CNN18%20%22% Local24%15%12% NBC14%13%12% ABC14%12%9% CBS14%8%6% MSNBC4%8% CNBC2%3%2% Newspapers40%38%36% InternetNA28%38% Radio15%17% Magazines3% Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project November 2004 Survey. N=2200. Margin of error is ±2%. *Numbers do not add to 100% because of multiple answers

Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005

Multitasking and attention deficits: What else were you doing when you last… Watched TV Listened to radio Read a newspaper Used the internet Talked on the phone Watched TV * Listened to radio 13* Read a newspaper 4321*214 Used the internet 20172*19 Talked on the phone * Source: Forrester Research, 2004

Typical day – 81 million are online and here is what they are doing ( full table available at:

What people do online – typical day (March 2005 Pew Internet Survey; * is Dec survey) Internet activityBroadbandDial-up Log on (any reason)69%50% Hobby2815 Job-related research2714 Audio/video clip*203 Log on wirelessly*175 Instant message168 Chat rooms52 Social networking4-- View images remotely32

New internet activities – 1 Content creation (5 mill. a day)

New internet activities – 2 … File sharing through peer-to-peer networks (5-7 mill. a day) MB file Phish

New internet activities – 3 Reputation systems (3 mill. a day)

Digital divide 1: Age

Digital divide 2: Employment status

Digital divide 3: Household income

Digital divide 4: Educational attainment

Digital divide 5: Race and ethnicity (English speaking)

Digital divide 6: Community type

Digital divide 7: Disability

64 million Americans do not use the internet The percent who say this is a “major reason” they do not use the internet…

Impacts: Social life The internet adds in some ways to social capital People use the internet more seriously as they gain experience Broadband connections change internet user behavior E-patients are creating a new health care environment E-citizens are creating a new civic environment

Impacts: Personal life Break down traditional barriers Home/work/school Public/private Consumer/producer Everyday life rhythms – time shifting Communicating Entertaining Transactions “Info snacking” and news “playlists” Dark side – stress, info overload, fewer secrets

Impacts: People’s relationship to information Information as social sharing Information sources are my friends: Dr. Google, Pastor Yahoo “Daily Me” Challenges to credibility

New Reality 1: Interactivity matters profoundly You are in constant “conversation” with your customers They can be your greatest resource because they know more than you do! People like to create content and they expect to be able to interact online 44% have created content and posted it online 57% of broadband users have done so

New Reality 2: People have new ways to talk about you The velocity of information matters – this is the era of “smart mobs” “Through the internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are getting smarter – and getting smarter faster than most companies.” – Cluetrain Manifesto, Rick Levine, Christopher Locke, Doc Searls, and David Weinberger The permanence of information matters – search engines and linked databases make much more material accessible much more quickly

New Reality 3: This is the era of the “daily me” and “my media” More than half of internet users belong to listservs and other groups organized around a topic, organization, or group More than a third of internet users customize information at Web sites 25% get e-newsletters 5% get RSS feeds Podcasts are catching on

New Reality 4: Tech elite & information Household as a node on the information network Content is an intermediate input to be: Mashed-up Recombined Redistributed Content is fluid: Sometimes it’s free Sometimes they pay for it

Further thoughts about a webmanager’s response Act like a news service and syndicate Practice search engine optimization: Google and Yahoo are your home page! Design for deep entry into your site Believe that the “Long Tail” is your friend Network like mad and find your allies Plan for peak moments and valley moments

Pace of change for digital power ACCELERATES into the future… Computing power – doubles every 18 months – Moore’s Law Communication power doubles every 9 months with compression and fiber-capacity improvements – Gilder’s law Spectrum power – better and more efficient Storage power doubles every 12 months – disk law

Trend 1: Device power and the rise of the “internet of things” More “smart” gadgets and “dumb” appliances plug in The network of the future is “one in which every machine with electricity is essentially on the Net, where everywhere you are – except the desert or the Rockies – you can instantaneously be connected to the internet.” --- Prof. Larry Lessig, Free Culture

Trend 2: Mobility power The wireless connection in those devices grows 66% own cell phones 39% own digital cameras 18% own laptops with wireless connections 12% Blackberries and wireless PDAs Smart mobs proliferate

Trend 3: Content creation and content sharing power The volume of people’s postings skyrockets, and the tools for sharing expand

Trend 4: Search power will expand and become more social Improvements in “semantic web” – contextualized search Customized and local search Social search and validation (reputation systems and social media) Collaborative filtering, tagging, social filters

Ahead “For us [the future means] making content mobile and accessible, so it can be delivered on demand to any application or device, at any time or place.” --- Tom Curley, CEO Associated Press Speech to Online Press Association, November 12, 2004