Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (UN-FAO 1996; 2012) Main point is that food security encompasses much more than just available food production. … is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems

The “Food System” Concept Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, … Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, … Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, … Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Social Welfare Income Employment Wealth Social capital Political capital Human capital Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: Environmental Welfare Ecosystem stocks & flows Ecosystem services Planetary Boundaries FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety Affordability Allocation Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange

? So what are the contributions of Food Systems to crossing Planetary Boundaries? Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food ?

Agriculture as a source of GHG emissions Mt CO2-e, 2010 ~21%, including land-use change Updated August 2013_AS Worldwatch Institute’s Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org)

Crossing planetary boundaries And the contribution of agriculture & fisheries Climate change Nitrogen cycle Rate of biodiversity loss

But ‘Food Systems’ involve more than ‘agriculture’ … Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, … Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, … Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …

Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009 … and a major proportion of GHG emissions from ‘OECD’ food systems are not from agriculture. UK USA India Producing Distributing Waste disposing Processing Consuming Garnett, FCRN, 2009 Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009 Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys & Env, 2010

UK’s food industry “costs” (post-farmgate) 14% of energy consumption by UK businesses and 7 million tonnes of carbon emissions per year 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply 10% of the industrial and commercial waste stream 25% of all HGV vehicle kilometres in the UK defra, 2006

Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change N cycle P cycle Fresh water use Land use change Biodiversity loss Atmos. aerosols Chemical pollution

Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change GHGs, albedo Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain GHGs from cooking N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs Effluent NOx from transport Waste P cycle P reserves Detergents Fresh water use Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning Land use change Intensificn, soil degdn Paper/card Transport & retail infrastructure Forest to edible oils plantation Biodiversity loss Deforestation, soils, fishing [Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer choices Atmos. aerosols Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking Chemical pollution Pesticides Transport emissions

Looking ahead …? (indicative; not to scale) 2050 The health and environmental consequences of satisfying this demand with current food systems would be dire 2025 kcal/person/day 2013 2200 - Too much - ----- Appropriate amount ----- -- Too little -- ------ Too much ------ ---- Appropriate amount ---- --- Too little --- ----------- Too much ------------ --- Appropriate amount --- ----- Too little ----- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Billions of people

Re-allocating human edible food back to humans? 2.3 bn tons cereal produced in 2010/11 FAO Food Outlook 2013

Reducing food losses and waste? Source: FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011

Cereals: A plausible way ahead by 2025 50% more cereal cals/person/day, despite harvesting 15% less/person Edible cereal harvest After 15% lost on-farm After 34% fed to animals After 19% for biofuel After 15% lost in food chain 3150 3000 2675 2675 15% reduction due to population increase and environmental change 67% reduction in feeding to animals 2500 50% reduction in use for biofuels 2400 33% reduction in on-farm losses 2125 50% reduction in food chain losses kcal/person/day 2000 1900 1775 1725 1500 1250 1000 850 500 On-farm Animal feed Biofuel Food chain Nature of food ‘loss’ ‘Current’ data (in red) from FAO; & Luo, 2013

political, economic, social, technical Cereals: A plausible way ahead by 2025 50% more cereal cals/person/day, despite harvesting 15% less/person Edible cereal harvest After 15% lost on-farm After 34% fed to animals After 19% for biofuel After 15% lost in food chain 3150 3000 2675 2675 15% reduction due to population increase and environmental change 67% reduction in feeding to animals 2500 50% reduction in use for biofuels 2400 33% reduction in on-farm losses What are the obstacles? political, economic, social, technical 2125 50% reduction in food chain losses kcal/person/day 2000 1900 1775 1725 1500 1250 1000 850 500 On-farm Animal feed Biofuel Food chain Nature of food ‘loss’ ‘Current’ data (in red) from FAO; & Luo, 2013

Food System ACTIVITIES Optimum FS management needs to understand FS processes in context of drivers and feedbacks Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food DRIVER Interactions Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Social Welfare Food Security Environ Welfare Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion