1. The “Planetary Boundaries” Concept
Climate change
Nitrogen cycle
Rate of biodiversity loss

2. Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

3. … all of which are conducted by a range of ‘Actors’ ...
Input industry
Farmers, fishermen
Con-summers
Waste process, sewage
Subsistence farmers
Retailers, food service
Food industry
Traders, processors
… all of whom have a range of incentives and motives …

4. So how to Food System Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries?

5. Food Systems Activities also have varied impacts on natural resources
We know the current global environmental ‘situation’
Soil 33% degraded
Fresh water 20% aquifers overexploited
Biodiversity 60% of loss
Marine resources 29% over-fished; 61% fully-fished
Fossil fuels 30% of all fossil fuel use
And 24% of total GHG emissions
And pollution: chemicals, plastics, litter, …

6. Updated ‘Planetary Boundaries’ concept
and contribution of Agriculture activities
Climate change
Genetic diversity
Biosphere integrity
Novel entities
Functional diversity ? ?
Stratospheric ozone depletion
Land-system change
Role of agriculture ?
Atmospheric aerosol loading
Freshwater use
Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk)
In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk)
Below boundary (safe)
Boundary not yet quantified ?
Phosphorus
Ocean acidification
Nitrogen
Biogeochemical flows
Campbell et al., submitted
Steffen et al., 2015

7. Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
Example contributions of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Climate change
CO2, CH4, N2O,
albedo
N cycle
Fertilisers
P cycle
Fresh water use
Irrigation
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation, soils, fishing. monocultures
Atmos.
aerosols
Deforestation, tillage
Chemical pollution
Pesticides

8. Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
Example contributions of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Processing & Packaging food
Distributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Climate change
CO2, CH4, N2O,
albedo
Factory and materials emissions
Transport and cold chain emissions
Cooking and washing
emissions
N cycle
Fertilisers
Factory effluent
transport NOx
Waste
P cycle
Detergents
Fresh water use
Irrigation
Washing, heating, cooling
Cleaning food
Cooking, cleaning
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation, soils, fishing. monocultures
Paper/card
Metal mining
Invasive spp
Consumer choices
Atmos.
aerosols
Deforestation, tillage
Shipping
Smoke from cooking
Chemical pollution
Pesticides
Transport emissions

9. Assessing Sustainable FNS
To what does ‘sustainable’ refer?
Assessing Sustainable FNS
Sustainable Food System Activities
Environmentally sound
Socially acceptable
Economically/Enterprise viable
External factors
Enabling policies
Is this a ‘Sustainable
Food System’? +
Producer buy-in
Consumer buy-in
Healthy Diet Outcomes
Calorie and nutrient density
Quality
Diversity
Safe
Affordable
Acceptable

10. Looking ahead: Calorie consumption
(emerging ‘middle class’: increasing wealth => diet change)
The environmental consequences of meeting this demand under current food systems and consumption trends are dire
2040
Costs of triple burden of malnutrition (direct, indirect and lost work days) currently 11% global GDP
2028
kcal/person/day consumption
Manage Demand
2018
The global cost of the 425m diabetics alone is $825b/yr; 700m diabetics anticipated
2000
Meet
Demand
2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(indicative; not to scale)
Billions of people